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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was 15.4 here. I did a 5 mile run at 5:00 AM. There was enough wind that I had to put on the face mask . I got thru 3 miles without it, but could feel the cheeks starting to freeze . Amazing the elevation differences with temps 

Pony Os on the Berks east side

IMG_20201219_064807576.thumb.jpg.445b11ea679f8967c7f95a467b793eb2.jpg

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33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was 15.4 here. I did a 5 mile run at 5:00 AM. There was enough wind that I had to put on the face mask . I got thru 3 miles without it, but could feel the cheeks starting to freeze . Amazing the elevation differences with temps 

impressive, I walked out on the deck and the inside of my nose froze....not sure how I could even go for a quick jog right now. Bottomed out at -3.5°just after sunrise, a balmy -2.0° at the moment....

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We’re actually kind of due for a snow melting grinch if you think about it. We haven’t had a true grinch since 2013? 

I guess you could count like 80F on xmas eve/Xmas in 2015 but it wasn’t melting anything. Same with the torching cutter a few days before Xmas 2018...wasn’t melting anything for most people.

 

 

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59 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Too bad. But have to say, pretty frigging awesome looking here. Definitely have a cake layer. My buddy told me around 3 am there was some rain mixed for an hour while he was plowing. Also said that at one point it was snowing so hard he couldn't see his truck lights.

 

57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your area also had sleet mixing in for an hour or so. It got as far north as Colchester to you to PVD area briefly . Gonna be tough to swallow if it the giant snow eraser comes and erases to the Laurentian shelf . We should have a good idea by tomorrow evening runs 

Yep, can confirm.  Heavy pingers woke me up around 3am or so...lasted at least 30 minutes.  Nice layer of ice/sleet in the middle of the pack.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re actually kind of due for a snow melting grinch if you think about it. We haven’t had a true grinch since 2013? 

I guess you could count like 80F on xmas eve/Xmas in 2015 but it wasn’t melting anything. Same with the torching cutter a few days before Xmas 2018...wasn’t melting anything for most people.

I think a thorough study of the matter would ultimately show that we get cutters a lot in winter.

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Just now, JC-CT said:

I think a thorough study of the matter would ultimately show that we get cutters a lot in winter.

Yes, especially in December and January. Cutters are definitely reduced in frequency in February. 

There is definitely a historical spike around 12/23-12/25 in temps but I am not at all convinced it is anything other than statistical anomaly. If the distribution of cutters was truly random in December, you would still expect several outliers based on 100+ years of data. It would probably take over 1000 years to weed them out. I haven’t seen an actual meteorological explanation of why we would expect the 12/23-12/25 anomaly to continue. 

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Its not just about storms though. Melting high dews as well. How can a statistical anomaly be seen consistently at many long term sites. Not gonna replay this discussion as we completely covered it a couple of years ago with charts, graphs. Some just don't believe it I guess.  We also showed the positive anomaly the 3rd week of Jan. Grinch and Jan thaw are real enough to cause long term sites to reflect the propensity for positive anomaly 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Its not just about storms though. Melting high dews as well. How can a statistical anomaly be seen consistently at long term sites. Not gonna replay this discussion has we completely covered it a couple of years ago with charts, graphs. Some just don't believe it I guess.  We also showed the positive anomaly the 3rd week if Jan. Grinch and Jan thaw are real enough to cause long term sites to reflect the propensity for positive anomaly 

You can believe the statistical anomaly exists and still think it is random. The two are not mutually exclusive. You would expect statistical anomalies in a random distribution of n = 100 or 150. 

I’m open to the possibility that it is not random and there is a legit meteorological explanation, but I haven’t seen it yet.

 

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can believe the statistical anomaly exists and still think it is random. The two are not mutually exclusive. You would expect statistical anomalies in a random distribution of n = 100 or 150. 

I’m open to the possibility that it is not random and there is a legit meteorological explanation, but I haven’t seen it yet.

 

I can’t figure out a reason either. I don’t see how the atmosphere just shifts into east coast torch gear at the same time every year and then reverts back. 

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47 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I think a thorough study of the matter would ultimately show that we get cutters a lot in winter.

If you remember.. When in our snowiest winter of 95-96, we had a big thaw and heavy rains ( I think in Feb ) but went back to snow after that. I'm not sure there has been any winter where every single storm is a coastal or a clipper. It sucks we're having rain Christmas Eve/ day..but..there still a bit of tweaking to be done regarding that storm. However.. Talk of doom and gloom because of this storm heading into the new year...lolololololol. That is funny. Well be fine. Haven't even hit January yet. Relax poeple.

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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

With a high in the atlantic? Looks like shit.

I realize you really just wanted to set up the "Looks like shit" repeater joke in this post/reply of yours.. but, just for "shits" and giggles -

I think what he/she was after ( though perhaps lacks the confidence to advance ? ) is that high in the Atlantic or not, if that trough exerts any more E than New England could just as well end up on the W side of that baroclinic wall - even if by small amount would be different ball game..

Just sayn'

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