MJO812 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 I might fly away on Christmas day. Winds look insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t think the duration of the potential torch is enough to melt the current pack. There’s enough water so that post frontal it should be intact. And keep in mind I’m not a snowpack guy so no positive bias here. I’m a big snowpack guy and I rarely saw extended snow cover where I grew up, so I’m very interested to see how long this pack lasts. It’s a spectacular scene right now, almost straight out of a Christmas movie, and I don’t want it to end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t think the duration of the potential torch is enough to melt the current pack. There’s enough water so that post frontal it should be intact. And keep in mind I’m not a snowpack guy so no positive bias here. I hope so but man , 2 days of 50+ is gonna be brutal if it happens like he’s got .We’d be looking green grass and a couple driveway snowbanks. I still think this gets shunted to a degree . Many times they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: John, I know you mentioned that there is a propensity for interior NE MA and SE NH to get into screw zones in the big KU events, and I agree. I have always said that. I think its two things: 1) Low level fronto often focuses near the coast, which increases the chance for subsidence in that area. 2) That phenomenon that you were mentioning with regard to the barrier jet advecting drier air in from Maine on a NNE flow. I know someone like Will will tell me that everywhere gets screwed at one time or another, and that is true....but I do think that there are certain regional meso phenomena that make certain areas more prone than others. Good insights/points - If I may add another ? 3) yesterday featured vortex splitting - the dome of cold air was too deep and cold/viscus, and as the deep layer trough approached it, the mid level support severed glided over top and created the mega CSI/ 'quasi' CSI band up N. Meanwhile the vestigial 700 mb wind max and associated vortex broke away ...moving along SE of ISP... You could see two distinct inflow rad reflectivity zones, with typical arced banded features... one moving from the Berks into the Monad's and White's ..a second one W of the Island and S of New Bedford ... both these features coalesced into solid shields - the total of which abandoned lift in that axis between. I'm actually wondering how much dry air really was culpable in that barrier jet ... as it was snowing very high and hard and the jet was coming from that saturated vicinity ...that muddies the picture a bit. The dry undercut is a real phenomenon though - I've seen. I think it was Feb 1997 ... there was a "Miller D" .. .the old 'hook and latter' play where a low bombs and moves NW from SE of CC... There had been a bit of talk about a deep low in the days preceding, but as it was coming into short range, the 48 and 60 hour window ..most models had it too far gone to be an impact... But, that morning it comes "storming" back. I recall the then ETA ( which would later become the NAM/WARF ...not sure what happened to that warf idea ) anyway.. spits out 1.8" of liquid equiv at Logan out of nowhere, "whaaaa" NWS is scrambling to get blizzard warnings up for SE zones, with WSW for Middlesex/Essex/Suffolk/ and SE NH zones... What happens? 6-10" over SE zone and nice low snow content, but high wind very cold nasty blizzard criteria is met, but we got .5" in SE NH and the Merrimack Valley and nothing west of there... I remember, while the late afternoon blizzard raged in Brockton Mass, the sky lit up in this orange fire sunset blaze and these undulatory bulbs of cloud and snow plumes were illuminated in a spectacular visage I haven't really seen the likes of which since... The DP was 9 while that was happening... Despite the upside ocean of virga waves of snow in the sideways lit sunset sky raging above, it could not saturate that lower column enough and that warning busted around the N-NW edges of the warning package. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 The Sunday Night deal is trending more bullish. Almost looks like a norlun event. I’m wondering if instead of that event and then the Monday night system , we see them trend the next couple of runs into one event more norlun esque . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 3km for Sunday night. This is growing legs 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Looks like the gefs has many different solutions in regards to the low developing along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 39 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t think the duration of the potential torch is enough to melt the current pack. There’s enough water so that post frontal it should be intact. And keep in mind I’m not a snowpack guy so no positive bias here. Looks nice around here , my daughter picked me up from the hospital. Pack definitely has some meat here. Irony would be Brian vaporizers 3 feet while us 1 footers stay solid snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Getting a Christmas 2017 vibe tonight. All you panic driven kids hold off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Looks nice around here , my daughter picked me up. Pack definitely has some meat here. Irony would be Brian vaporizers 3 feet while us 1 footers stay solid snow. So glad you’re home! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Looks nice around here , my daughter picked me up from the hospital. Pack definitely has some meat here. Irony would be Brian vaporizers 3 feet while us 1 footers stay solid snow. I still had nearly 2" of water in my pack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Some interesting members for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 18z gfs actually had a little bit of CAD in front of the cutter as it kind of built the high northward toward Nova Scotia out ahead of the cutter. That wouldn’t be an all out disaster. Still hoping for much better though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 If we have to deal with the grinch, just hoping that front doesn't stall so we limit rain and basement flooding. The GFS looked like it had most of the precip overnight and into the morning, done by the afternoon, which might not be too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 "Fake cold" night incoming it seems...temp already down to 13.6⁰ here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 All hope isn’t lost. They also have some low probs for frozen on 24-25th https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=med Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z gfs actually had a little bit of CAD in front of the cutter as it kind of built the high northward toward Nova Scotia out ahead of the cutter. That wouldn’t be an all out disaster. Still hoping for much better though. Bring it home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 So if we add in 2-4” Sunday - Tuesday .. and it’s wet snow.. that may be what’s needed to salvage the white Xmas . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2020 Author Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Getting a Christmas 2017 vibe tonight. All you panic driven kids hold off So glad you're okay...I need someone to keep me in check haha 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I hope so but man , 2 days of 50+ is gonna be brutal if it happens like he’s got .We’d be looking green grass and a couple driveway snowbanks. I still think this gets shunted to a degree . Many times they do. Just dug into it a bit. Obviously this will change but today’s trends are for a 12-18 hour torch. Latest GFS is about 1pm Christmas Eve to 4am Christmas Day with temps above 50. Maxing out at 63 on Christmas at midnight. So not as bad as it seems duration wise, but it does seem pretty warm for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Cold night coming up? -9F this morning and currently 4F at 8:30pm. Fresh snow cover always gets the bottom to drop out. Haven't seen much chatter about these clear/calm nights though. New England villages should be crisp in these conditions. Despite the lack of snow here, it’s still got that holiday vibe (photo from this evening but not mine). 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 It does seem like there is more spread than usual on the ensembles for day 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Down to 15 here. Should be a chilly one. This neighborhood tends to radiate well, rather flat and somewhat open. Temps on PWS range rom 14-20 across town. Sugarloaf's neighborhood a few miles south down by the Scantic river actually radiates even slightly better. I hope he's ok. Nothing but silence on his account for quite some time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said: Down to 15 here. Should be a chilly one. This neighborhood tends to radiate well, rather flat and somewhat open. Temps on PWS range rom 14-20 across town. Sugarloaf's neighborhood a few miles south down by the Scantic river actually radiates even slightly better. I hope he's ok. Nothing but silence on his account for quite some time. He vanished the same time MetHerb did in the spring. Herb left because he got upset in the Covid thread. I traced it back. Loaf vanished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 33 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Cold night coming up? -9F this morning and currently 4F at 8:30pm. Fresh snow cover always gets the bottom to drop out. Haven't seen much chatter about these clear/calm nights though. I find it amazing how much my location radiates. I figured we were going to get cold, but not this cold, this quickly...couldn't imagine these conditions in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 -1 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 21 minutes ago, alex said: -1 here 18z ECMWF surface prog capturing the sharp drop well here and at your place. Seems like it’s colder than this guidance so far though in CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Also an amazing amount of diamond dust, although it may be coming from snowmaking at the ski area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 7 here. That map PF posted nicely shows my non-radiating zone as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: He vanished the same time MetHerb did in the spring. Herb left because he got upset in the Covid thread. I traced it back. Loaf vanished Upset at people downplaying it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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