RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 That could help the stage to setup traffic in the canadian maritimes though. Opening gifts in darkness on xmas in hopes of drunken naked snow angels on nye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Like clockwork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Gusts to 90? Goodbye snow Kevin, hello severe Kevin It's looking like an anomalous trough either way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, wx2fish said: I'm in Windham now, but measured once at the end 9.8". Whoops sorry. I saw a report that Londonderry had 16 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Cold Miser said: If active means rain, no thanks. With that being said, shades will be drawn, but I will be sleeping with one eyelid slightly ajar just in case I need to hop on Kevin's bus. What a joy you are. Lol no it means snow chances dumb dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Just speaking in general terms. But too many just solely rely and focus on ENSO for long-range and well...as years have gone on and strides continue to be made with research IMO ENSO is more a back seat kina state as opposed to the driver. I mean sure a super strong ENSO event will probably be a main driver but these weaker events...they aren't the driver or focus of the pattern/evolution as either they once seemed or once used to be. A big player in this is just oceanic heat content in general. For example, take a look at the 1981-2010 climo means compared to the previous base...some weak La Nina events then are literally like a "neutral now". I think there are a couple warm-neutral ENSO events that are now classified as weak NIno too Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, JC-CT said: Goodbye snow Kevin, hello severe Kevin It's looking like an anomalous trough either way If we have to erase snowpack to the Laurentian shelf for Xmas, it sure as hell had better come with massive damage 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: If we have to erase snowpack to the Laurentian shelf for Xmas, it sure as hell had better come with massive damage Yeah, I get it, but on Christmas morning...really? Not that we can control it, but maybe we should consider the effect it would have on other people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 That low on the 25th cuts so far west it ends up in Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 This is probably the most exciting thing happening on Christmas for most people here in 2020... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Yeah, I get it, but on Christmas morning...really? Not that we can control it, but maybe we should consider the effect it would have on other people? I’m so angry thinking about all this deep snow being potentially wiped out, I hope it knocks down every town green Christmas tree in the 6 state region. 1 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Boy it builds a -nao though. Holy cow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Yeah, I get it, but on Christmas morning...really? Not that we can control it, but maybe we should consider the effect it would have on other people? The last thing that many people need during 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well if the GFS is right, we are opening gifts in the dark. Seeing that 6 hours before the event, it was only off on the placement of the heaviest snow in New England yesterday by about 250 miles, I think we can lock this in a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Boy it builds a -nao though. Holy cow. GFS has backend for PA on Christmas eve 2-4 inches as there is a wave on the front 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Boy it builds a -nao though. Holy cow. LOL...can you say "wave break event"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: LOL...can you say "wave break event"? No kidding. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: That low on the 25th cuts so far west it ends up in Hudson Bay. lock it in. let's start from scratch. Funny how these rain storms can be pinpointed with extreme accuracy a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Boy it builds a -nao though. Holy cow. I mean if it's going to be a grinch storm, might as well be extra grinchy and have some positive downstream effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That could help the stage to setup traffic in the canadian maritimes though. Opening gifts in darkness on xmas in hopes of drunken naked snow angels on nye? 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Boy it builds a -nao though. Holy cow. No bad Southbury weenie...not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 59 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I got some of it playing in the snow with the kids yesterday. Wife lost her phone..it got buried when I shoved her down the hill and she flipped over. We found it 2hrs later like a dog finds an avalanchee surivor but I had to find it or I was sleeping in the dog crate, in the basement...apparently it was my fault I gave her extra speed. But now...it’s back to tracking. Still hunting for that big one. That 18+ I haven’t experienced since Jan 11. That’s a long time for a SNE weenie. Lol spouses are the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, Lava Rock said: lock it in. let's start from scratch. Funny how these rain storms can be pinpointed with extreme accuracy a week away. Because whether a storm moves over the Hudson river or Detroit is easier to predict, vs being in a 50 mile wide sweet spot for a snow event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol spouses are the best. Back home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Because whether a storm moves over the Hudson river or Detroit is easier to predict, vs being in a 50 mile wide sweet spot for a snow event. Where is PF’s cutter vs east coast track possibility map? That puts things into visual perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Jeez we might get into the 50's or 60's on Christmas day in the warm sector. If the snow is all melted, i'm going to fire up the grill, maybe have friends over for outdoor activities like washer toss. Make something out of nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Opening gifts in darkness on xmas in hopes of drunken naked snow angels on nye? What time are you opening the presents that it is dark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, klw said: What time are you opening the presents that it is dark? Our tradition is to open up presents Christmas eve, before midnight mass. But my wife likes Christmas morning, but super early...so whenever the kids wake up. Could be 5 or 9am, depends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Where is PF’s cutter vs east coast track possibility map? That puts things into visual perspective. What map is that? Sounds interesting lol. Or man you mean that one that shows the narrow tracks needed for a big snowstorm while the zone for a Rainer is like 2,000 miles wide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What map is that? Sounds interesting lol. I vividly remember you posting years ago a map showing cutter possibilities with arrows over chicago, detroit, buffalo, etc...and like one arrow going underneath NewEng. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Yeah..it's been doing that with the last several cycles, that handling downstream/ N Atlantic ... I mentioned it to Will earlier - . You know, there is a climatology on Lakes cutters preceding transient NAO blocks over the D. Straight ..which makes sense as any vertically stacked bomb heading toward James Bay will tend to wrap a planetary wave decay into those higher latitudes up there... viola! Heights blossom for at least a while until it all disperses. But in this case, the GFS is trying to establish an actual R-wave redistribution out of it. Not sure - ... could be that it's just magnifying that - it's like the physics are the edge of the visible plain makes the moon look scary huge coming over the horizon - somethin' like that...we'll see. The GEFs do not represent that NAO handling in their mean/tele's last night or the previous night. Now, ...doesn't mean this isn't going to happen. Sometimes the higher res/normalized versions will precede the ensemble mean ... and then the latter catches on. It's a phenomenon more likely witnessed when there is cross-guidance, operational agreement. The ensemble means et al then gather around the operational consensus ...sort of in reverse order. I don't have any idea what the Euro and GGEM and UKMET are doing with the NAO domain, tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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