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December 2020 Discussion


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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Just speaking in general terms. But too many just solely rely and focus on ENSO for long-range and well...as years have gone on and strides continue to be made with research IMO ENSO is more a back seat kina state as opposed to the driver. I mean sure a super strong ENSO event will probably be a main driver but these weaker events...they aren't the driver or focus of the pattern/evolution as either they once seemed or once used to be. A big player in this is just oceanic heat content in general. For example, take a look at the 1981-2010 climo means compared to the previous base...some weak La Nina events then are literally like a "neutral now". I think there are a couple warm-neutral ENSO events that are now classified as weak NIno too

Got it.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

If we have to erase snowpack to the Laurentian shelf for Xmas, it sure as hell had better come with massive damage 

Yeah, I get it, but on Christmas morning...really? Not that we can control it, but maybe we should consider the effect it would have on other people?

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2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah, I get it, but on Christmas morning...really? Not that we can control it, but maybe we should consider the effect it would have on other people?

I’m so angry thinking about all this deep snow being potentially wiped out, I hope it knocks down every town green Christmas tree in the 6 state region. 

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well if the GFS is right, we are opening gifts in the dark.

Seeing that 6 hours before the event, it was only off on the placement of the heaviest snow  in New England yesterday by about 250 miles, I think we can lock this in a week out. 

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59 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I got some of it playing in the snow with the kids yesterday. Wife lost her phone..it got buried when I shoved her down the hill and she flipped over. We found it 2hrs later like a dog finds an avalanchee surivor but I had to find it or I was sleeping in the dog crate, in the basement...apparently it was my fault I gave her extra speed. 

But now...it’s back to tracking. Still hunting for that big one. That 18+ I haven’t experienced since Jan 11. That’s a long time for a SNE weenie. 

Lol spouses are the best. 

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Just now, Lava Rock said:

lock it in. let's start from scratch. Funny how these rain storms can be pinpointed with extreme accuracy a week away.

Because whether a storm moves over the Hudson river or Detroit is easier to predict, vs being in a 50 mile wide sweet spot for a snow event. 

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Where is PF’s cutter vs east coast track possibility map? That puts things into visual perspective.

What map is that?  Sounds interesting lol.  Or man you mean that one that shows the narrow tracks needed for a big snowstorm while the zone for a Rainer is like 2,000 miles wide?  

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Yeah..it's been doing that with the last several cycles, that handling downstream/ N Atlantic ... I mentioned it to Will earlier - .

You know, there is a climatology on Lakes cutters preceding transient NAO blocks over the D. Straight ..which makes sense as any vertically stacked bomb heading toward James Bay will tend to wrap a planetary wave decay into those higher latitudes up there... viola!  Heights blossom for at least a while until it all disperses. But in this case, the GFS is trying to establish an actual R-wave redistribution out of it.  Not sure -  ... could be that it's just magnifying that - it's like the physics are the edge of the visible plain makes the moon look scary huge coming over the horizon - somethin' like that...we'll see.

The GEFs do not represent that NAO handling in their mean/tele's last night or the previous night.  Now, ...doesn't mean this isn't going to happen.  Sometimes the higher res/normalized versions will precede the ensemble mean ... and then the latter catches on. It's a phenomenon more likely witnessed when there is cross-guidance, operational agreement.  The ensemble means et al then gather around the operational consensus ...sort of in reverse order.    I don't have any idea what the Euro and GGEM and UKMET are doing with the NAO domain, tho...

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