Typhoon Tip Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Inland runner for 2nd storm near the 5th on all the models mm.. 12z oper. GFS isn't an "inland" solution... no sense in overstating the matter lol. I mean there may be some subjective hand throwing but, inland is more definitively west... Like, PA with only paltry commitment toward a 'dent' on a warm front. Now that's inland.. . This? this is a coastal low... It's just not ideal... We don't have -8 C 850 mb entry temp slabbed down E along the coastal plain while a 974 mb low passes a stones throw east of ISP no. Folks need to be "fluid" in their chart interpretations - I suspect there's too much snap shot grousing that happens. To each is own... sure. But that solution is fine for this range in a rising PNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Whiteface cares 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 On 11/26/2020 at 10:21 AM, CoastalWx said: Don't forget, there rarely is such thing as a persistent '14-'15 type pattern. Many times, our pattern are sort of in between good and garbage. The reasons why sometimes these break right (like Dec 07 for instance) is because of some subtle, but notable distinctions in where features like troughs and ridges are placed. So it doesn't do a lot of good when you see something not 100% perfect and get all bent out of shape. I don't see anything wrong as a whole on the EPS, especially by December standards. Looking forward to a change. Paging Uncle Leo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 So two Bomb screamer soueasters that cut waaaay west and then a slight chance of a few snow threats. I guess that’s better than no chance anyway . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So two Bomb screamer soueasters that cut waaaay west and then a slight chance of a few snow threats. I guess that’s better than no chance anyway . Not west enough unfortunately.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Edit: I screwed this up - left image is last year. I don't pay for Weatherbell, but he went colder for New England (and out here actually), with more warmth in the South. Anyone know if he changed analogs? He had like 1973, 1988, 2010, 2010 as the blend for a while, but like +1 warmer than the raw blend of those years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Paging Uncle Leo. How is the 12z EPS looking?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 37 minutes ago, raindancewx said: I don't pay for Weatherbell, but he went colder for New England (and out here actually), with more warmth in the South. Anyone know if he changed analogs? He had like 1973, 1988, 2010, 2010 as the blend for a while, but like +1 warmer than the raw blend of those years. I don’t know how reliable but better than the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Not west enough unfortunately.... Seems like not far enough west to turn NAO neggy . Another gut punch . The worries increase 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 every model cycle(s) inch the region closer .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: every model cycle(s) inch the region closer .... We all love a bomb sitting over PWM. Just need to hold that position for 32 more model runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: We all love a bomb sitting over PWM. Just need to hold that position for 32 more model runs. I would love to take my chances with that look. Dancing with the devil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I would love to take my chances with that look. Dancing with the devil. Definitely a poor air mass ahead of it but that one is worth watching for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We all love a bomb sitting over PWM. Just need to hold that position for 32 more model runs. Sure I'll be dead calm while you play naked Twister on the picnic tables. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Definitely a poor air mass ahead of it but that one is worth watching for NNE. The storm will “make its own cold air.” Don’t worry! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 32 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Definitely a poor air mass ahead of it but that one is worth watching for NNE. Base building snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: I really love a bomb sitting over PWM. Just need to hold that position for 32 more model runs. We know. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Right ... hence the operative "every cycle inches closer" phrase ... hello - that run sucks by the way - one shouldn't wanna hold that for 32 cycles any more than a steaming pile of feces ... but if you say so Nah, the runs have been - subjectively ... - materializing a cooler profile - as in 'trend' ? - and a deeper system, which frankly is more likely during that limb of the PNA rise than the foreground system ever was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 I almost feel like DIT... making a comment knowing it just cannot be left alone to simmer out there without a correction . The NNE crew is growing, now having regular posters @PhineasC in N.NH snow country and @bwt3650 living at Jay Peak. At least we'll get more posts during those events now. Hope we all get to enjoy a good snowstorm in December. From the ocean to the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 2nd low on the gfs is offshore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Real nice look for N NH up into Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Gonna need a 10-11 look up in this bitch inside 480 otherwise I’m warming up the melt.....lfg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Granted that season started so bad with that pig Boxing Day disaster.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Granted that season started so bad with that pig Boxing Day disaster.... A great storm for many! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, weathafella said: A great storm for many! A total disaster in Hartford..... and that matters.... what came later made up for it no question.....we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, ice1972 said: A total disaster in Hartford..... and that matters.... what came later made up for it no question.....we wait A big Tip melt that night...lol. 18-20 around Boston with exhaust over Ayer-maybe 6-7 tops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 2 hours ago, weathafella said: A big Tip melt that night...lol. 18-20 around Boston with exhaust over Ayer-maybe 6-7 tops? Ya we were under a blizzard warning for that one. It wasn’t anything all that impressive here. 10-12 inches with some decent wind(we lost power surprisingly). But the best by far was well to the southwest down into NYC and N.NJ. They got buried for sure. And I guess as you say Boston did well. Then it all melted and washed away with a New Years Eve mild rain. And just when you thought it was gonna be a pathetic winter...The barrage commenced and January 2011 was Epic! Roofs Caving in everywhere, and everybody shoveling their roofs off for fear of collapse. And the roof rake business took off like wildfire. Ahhh the memories. Lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: 2nd low on the gfs is offshore The ship has sailed on 12/5 being a NYC snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 32 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The ship has sailed on 12/5 being a NYC snowstorm Same for rest of us most likely. After the first week hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 2nd week of December looks good. Would be shocked if there wasn't a plowable event or two somewhere in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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