40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There could be a bit of weenie snow Sunday evening/night with that leading shortwave swinging through. I doubt any real accumulation but a coating wouldn’t be shocking. I need a dopamine fix, and am not seeing it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I need a dopamine fix, and not seeing it. I got some of it playing in the snow with the kids yesterday. Wife lost her phone..it got buried when I shoved her down the hill and she flipped over. We found it 2hrs later like a dog finds an avalanchee surivor but I had to find it or I was sleeping in the dog crate, in the basement...apparently it was my fault I gave her extra speed. But now...it’s back to tracking. Still hunting for that big one. That 18+ I haven’t experienced since Jan 11. That’s a long time for a SNE weenie. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I got some of it playing in the snow with the kids yesterday. Wife lost her phone..it got buried when I shoved her down the hill and she flipped over. We found it 2hrs later like a dog finds an avalanchee surivor but I had to find it or I was sleeping in the dog crate, in the basement...apparently it was my fault I gave her extra speed. But now...it’s back to tracking. Still hunting for that big one. That 18+ I haven’t experienced since Jan 11. That’s a long time for a SNE weenie. Yesterday was dissapointing, but I saw that coming about 5 days out. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I got some of it playing in the snow with the kids yesterday. Wife lost her phone..it got buried when I shoved her down the hill and she flipped over. We found it 2hrs later like a dog finds an avalanchee surivor but I had to find it or I was sleeping in the dog crate, in the basement...apparently it was my fault I gave her extra speed. But now...it’s back to tracking. Still hunting for that big one. That 18+ I haven’t experienced since Jan 11. That’s a long time for a SNE weenie. That is a long time. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That is a long time. It's coming. To be fair, I missed Feb 13 like a donk...so it counts for this area...just not me. It will come eventually. When it does, it will be that much more special...esp after all the close calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 perfect cutter look for Christmas. Couldn't be a better gift 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 hours ago, PhineasC said: I’m just gonna assume it couldn’t possibly be rain and 50s all the way up here on freakin’ Christmas. No way. You know what they say about assuming, Or maybe not you're from Maryland................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 John, I know you mentioned that there is a propensity for interior NE MA and SE NH to get into screw zones in the big KU events, and I agree. I have always said that. I think its two things: 1) Low level fronto often focuses near the coast, which increases the chance for subsidence in that area. 2) That phenomenon that you were mentioning with regard to the barrier jet advecting drier air in from Maine on a NNE flow. I know someone like Will will tell me that everywhere gets screwed at one time or another, and that is true....but I do think that there are certain regional meso phenomena that make certain areas more prone than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yesterday was dissapointing, but I saw that coming about 5 days out. For me...my new obsession is, “Where is the H7 tracking”. Pretty much eff everything else until that is ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: For me...my new obsession is, “Where is the H7 tracking”. Pretty much eff everything else until that is ideal. If you are looking for widespread > 12", sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If you are looking for widespread > 12", sure. Yeah for SWFE, it won't matter too much. We know it will go west of us, bigger question is srfc low placement and possible change to liquid...if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If you are looking for widespread > 12", sure. I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah for SWFE, it won't matter too much. We know it will go west of us, bigger question is srfc low placement and possible change to liquid...if at all. Yea..I meant for coastals and the big doggie potential. Both Mar 17 and yesterday was a low end of the range event because the h7 low tracked too far north even when qpf looked like 18” was possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I am. I think we can now say with confidence that a 1975-1976 scenario is about the worst possible outcome. You can essentially toss the wretched la nina analogs considering how the first half of December has evolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 I'll enjoy my coating Sunday night to freshen up the pack discoloration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea..I meant for coastals and the big doggie potential. Both Mar 17 and yesterday was a low end of the range event because the h7 low tracked too far north even when qpf looked like 18” was possible. Guidance is much better at resolving the low levels, than mid levels...we know this. Its why guidance often over estimates QPF to the east of the H7 low, and underestimates it to the northwest of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: John, I know you mentioned that there is a propensity for interior NE MA to get into screw zones in the big KU events, and I agree. I have always said that. I think its two things: 1) Low level fronto often focuses near the coast, which increases the chance for subsidence in that area. 2) That phenomenon that you were mentioning with regard to the barrier jet advecting drier air in from Maine on a NNE flow. I know someone like Will will tell me that everywhere gets screwed at one time or another, and that is true....but I do think that there are certain regional meso phenomena that make certain areas more prone than others. I think those are valid points. Its definitely a possibilty when the mid-level deformation ends up to the W/NW. It doesn't always happen...but it can and does. We've had a pretty good run with deformation bands the past several years in the ORH-ASH corridor, probably due for a relative porking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, wx2fish said: I think those are valid points. Its definitely a possibilty when the mid-level deformation ends up to the W/NW. It doesn't always happen...but it can and does. We've had a pretty good run with deformation bands the past several years in the ORH-ASH corridor, probably due for a relative porking. Yea, obviously not always....if the deformation is over the area, or the CF makes it further inland, then all bets are off. But I have a sneaky hatred for the really cold events like yesterday for this very reason. First of all, snow will with greater liquid content is more athetically pleasing and has better retention. Secondly, cold events are going to pin the CF well to my southeast and increase odds for OES contribution, which both act to focus LL fronto away from me....and if you also miss mid level fronto, then what's left? Basement totals- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: you mean Sunday night? No it would be Monday or Monday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think we can now say with confidence that a 1975-1976 scenario is about the worst possible outcome. You can essentially toss the wretched la nina analogs considering how the first half of December has evolved. I know I've made some posts on this but it's becoming more evident that these 'ENSO analogs" we all used to live and die by have less merit and don't hold the weight they perhaps once did. There are numerous reasons for this I think and well...could actually be a fun idea for a thread some day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: I know I've made some posts on this but it's becoming more evident that these 'ENSO analogs" we all used to live and die by have less merit and don't hold the weight they perhaps once did. There are numerous reasons for this I think and well...could actually be a fun idea for a thread some day. Don't get me started again ... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I know I've made some posts on this but it's becoming more evident that these 'ENSO analogs" we all used to live and die by have less merit and don't hold the weight they perhaps once did. There are numerous reasons for this I think and well...could actually be a fun idea for a thread some day. I'm not debating this, but I'm not sure how a la nina season being front loaded is illustrative of your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 14 minutes ago, wx2fish said: I think those are valid points. Its definitely a possibilty when the mid-level deformation ends up to the W/NW. It doesn't always happen...but it can and does. We've had a pretty good run with deformation bands the past several years in the ORH-ASH corridor, probably due for a relative porking. What was your final total in Londonderry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Well if the GFS is right, we are opening gifts in the dark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Snow for the tennesee valley on the 24th and rain in the northeast on the GFS for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Snow for the tennesee valley on the 24th and rain in the northeast on the GFS for Christmas. I guess I am due for another wonderful event where it's pouring and 50 in Randolph and people in north Georgia are sledding and building snowmen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: What was your final total in Londonderry? I'm in Windham now, but measured once at the end 9.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: I guess I am due for another wonderful event where it's pouring and 50 in Randolph and people in north Georgia are sledding and building snowmen. West is best up here, And we won't be far enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure how a la nina sesaon being front loaded is illustrative of your point. Just speaking in general terms. But too many just solely rely and focus on ENSO for long-range and well...as years have gone on and strides continue to be made with research IMO ENSO is more a back seat kina state as opposed to the driver. I mean sure a super strong ENSO event will probably be a main driver but these weaker events...they aren't the driver or focus of the pattern/evolution as either they once seemed or once used to be. A big player in this is just oceanic heat content in general. For example, take a look at the 1981-2010 climo means compared to the previous base...some weak La Nina events then are literally like a "neutral now". I think there are a couple warm-neutral ENSO events that are now classified as weak NIno too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well if the GFS is right, we are opening gifts in the dark. Gusts to 90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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