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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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There's plenty of time to flatten out the Xmas eve/Xmas system. Even if it just turns into kind of a dry FROPA where a low goes NW of us but it is not a phased stemwinder....in that case, you'd just get a fairly mild Xmas eve but no 55-60F downpours and then FROPA happens that night.

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

An early thread would be a great way to kill this threat. Please go ahead and get it started.

If moisture return was much stronger ahead of the trough across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic this would probably be a sizable severe weather event. Could certainly see some low topped convection up this way but I think in the end the dynamics will actually be too strong.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

?? They have a new site for that. But, Weather.cod has radar.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Who can suggest a good free-site for local radars, now that the NWS has terminated our service?

Yeah, new site, did u see it? Its an abomination. Unuseable.

I use weathertap its great.

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's plenty of time to flatten out the Xmas eve/Xmas system. Even if it just turns into kind of a dry FROPA where a low goes NW of us but it is not a phased stemwinder....in that case, you'd just get a fairly mild Xmas eve but no 55-60F downpours and then FROPA happens that night.

I'm not even finger's crossed for that ... More like considering that as a real correcting need.

I've stated my case a few pages ago/yesterday - quickly again... the longer term atmospheric tendency toward progression and speed, does not lend to a slowing down, full-latitude continental breadth, curved flow structures - 

That's the base-line contention.  Yeah, I guess ... persistence is like the Law - it doesn't work in extreme situations.  That's code for admitting it could still happen - saying correction possibility means the meridional amplitude variation is still on the table.

Beyond that.. .there are other clues, like ..the PNA from the GEFs is neutral-positive, not positive.   That's a subtlety in the interpretive usage that also does not really support huge N/S curvilinear loading. The signal there is to maintains a west to east correction tendency ( or vector :) )

You know... we put down a band of historic snow yesterday, but the important and (perhaps scary if we wan't to get into it) one is, pun on purpose, 'under the radar'.   30+ " of snow over that vast an area was verified in 12 hours!  It is not just the d(Q)/dt, it is the * mass!  That's got to be some kind silent record, if not damn close. Lot of storms of lore and yore put down hip height snow, but to do so at that speed and short duration ...over the state of Nebraska.. 

That said ??  We're not getting out of a warm sector...It's a matter of weather it's rotted polar air that is of the 52/38 variety, or as you say 54/53 S windy white noise through barren tree tops in strata streeted misty rains... I give it 50/50 shot of either version.  I don't think said persistence is related to the pattern in situ, as it has been a multi-modal, multi-seasonal/decadal thing at this point... It's persisted through Ninas and Ninos and -AO and +AOs and EPOs of both ilk and NAO too... and is caused by a separate issue altogether - but don't have to broach what that is, just knowing that it's likely to at least factor, probably should give an extra consideration to persistence in this case. As a quick afterthought ... one could wonder fairly if a bigger meridian structured ordeal would also just gestate in and out of existence quicker, too - ultimately limiting the time spend in the car wash -

How about the extended GFS though - man...that 00z guidance loaded the last 7 days of that run with sweet pulsing -3 SD west base NAO ...that's the way you want NAO, pulsing!

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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I don't know what they were thinking I really don't. I know they had to create something new because of flash but this is just.... No words.

I tried using it last night when I saw the tweet about it. It’s terrible. Takes too long, graphics look outdated. The old one was fine lol , they didn’t have to completely change the whole thing right? I don’t know anything about graphic design or programming so unsure. 

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Yeah, I was a bit nonplussed that they'd pull the trigger on a new technology solution during that storm yesterday ... that's an odd operations call if you ask me.

I haven't delved into that new product, but I don't like it for PC so far... We'll see when the weather turns active again how it performs.  I don't know if perhaps that is intended to be easier/boot-strap -able for remote tech. It's clear the technology is increasingly adaptive to a phone and portable -device world. It may be the case,.. I am noticing that as these new variance GUIs emerge, their compatibility with PCs .. you can tell there is a silent incompatibility ... The usage is quirky if not awkward ...sometimes lags and gaps in web-based rendering... etc... 

We're going to bottle neck technology and humanity intelligentsia I'm afraid along with it... such that when the Carrington Event strikes, it makes sure it is whole scale, swift and particularly holocaustic -  ...

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