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December 2020 Discussion


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2 hours ago, adelphi_sky said:

Afternoon all. Mid-Atlantic snow-starved weenie here transporting his family to New England for a chance at a white Christmas. At least a Christmas with snow on the ground. lol  I've given up on any chance of a DC white Christmas for my young children to experience. So, decided to chase cold air before they lose their over-the-top excitement of seeing snow. Wife picked Wells, VT. I'll be lurking in your forum for the next few weeks! 

Cheers! :thumbsup:

Out of the 251 towns in VT, how the heck did you come up with Wells?  You don’t hear that as a destination often.  I will say it’s pretty but Lake St. Catherine won’t do you much good this time of year. I guess it’s not too far from I-87/Lake George, NY. Anywhere in VT is good around the holidays. They were closer to the death band that sat there today but I don’t know how much that area ended up with. 

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If you are Christian, I will rent you space in my barn for Christmas Eve and you can pretend to be Mary and Joseph with baby Jesus surrounded by snow. I will even bring in a donkey and some other farm animals from my neighbor who has some. I can provide the full experience. You ride in on the donkey, I say there is no room in the house, and direct you to the barn. Very authentic!

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The EPS was 3 to 5 dec deeper with the 120 hour axis nearing the MA Tuesday  and a tick more aggressive with a GOM surface response- ...

Very fast flow and we are not sampling all the material players over the open Pac quite ideally just yet.. But will be in cycles over the next 36 hours, particularly into Saturday...  

22nd may be a late correction owing to these wave spaces ejecting off the Pac inside of a only 2,K naut mi width of mid latitude degrees at unusual pacing .. traversing the country at ludicrous speeds..  This is a candidate to do a three cycle correction abruptly toward a neg tilted but open, quick cyclogen ... NJ model lowl...  Or, we could wavering flatter by the night runs Saturday into Sunday.  For now as Will mentioned, we are sort of wondering about the S stream as a seeder wave serving to place hold/time right with that N/stream fisting southeast out of the Lakes to maybe subsume.  But, it's also possible that just like this wave in the MV today, that served as today's 'kicker'/damper, also started calving backward a bit against the flow and digging ...the N/stream may follow the same behavior. It's already a potent jet... Then we don't need to phase/subsume as much because the N stream my yank the atmosphere around on it's own as a correction too -

Lot can modulate between now and Sunday's runs -

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9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

If you are Christian, I will rent you space in my barn for Christmas Eve and you can pretend to be Mary and Joseph with baby Jesus surrounded by snow. I will even bring in a donkey and some other farm animals from my neighbor who has some. I can provide the full experience. You ride in on the donkey, I say there is no room in the house, and direct you to the barn. Very authentic!

This is very Dwight of you.

image.png.d806f363173675a050aaeeab60bc3452.png

 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The EPS was 3 to 5 dec deeper with the 120 hour axis nearing the MA Tuesday  and a tick more aggressive with a GOM surface response- ...

Very fast flow and we are not sampling all the material players over the open Pac quite ideally just yet.. But will be in cycles over the next 36 hours, particularly into Saturday...  

22nd may be a late correction owing to these wave spaces ejecting off the Pac inside of a only 2,K naut mi width of mid latitude degrees at unusual pacing .. traversing the country at ludicrous speeds..  This is a candidate to do a three cycle correction abruptly toward a neg tilted but open, quick cyclogen ... NJ model lowl...  Or, we could wavering flatter by the night runs Saturday into Sunday.  For now as Will mentioned, we are sort of wondering about the S stream as a seeder wave serving to place hold/time right with that N/stream fisting southeast out of the Lakes to maybe subsume.  But, it's also possible that just like this wave in the MV today, that served as today's 'kicker'/damper, also started calving backward a bit against the flow and digging ...the N/stream may follow the same behavior. It's already a potent jet... Then we don't need to phase/subsume as much because the N stream my yank the atmosphere around on it's own as a correction too -

Lot can modulate between now and Sunday's runs -

What are your thoughts on the 24th system? Seems today trends are to lean colder with no Grinch cut 

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What are your thoughts on the 24th system? Seems today trends are to lean colder with no Grinch cut 

Yeah...I fear coming off as an optimism bunny lately but unfortunately ...we are in a mode where that sort of look is not really fitting with the longer term/persistent progressive nature to the hemisphere.

That fast nature is both multi modal but also multi seasonal and goes back systemically for years at this point.. I don't "think" it yields just in time to allow that deep full latitude curvi-linear flow structure that moves the N-S length of the continental middle latitudes ... But, anomalies nested inside anomalies ... do take place from time to time. That just means... fast flow, then it slows for transiently, the back to fast flow - that transient slow down becomes an anomaly relative to the longer termed signal ...

Sparing a long sermon - it I think a flatter variation of that is favored by said persistence and also.. the because implicit teleconnector, PNA, is neutral positive from the GEFs... Haven't seen the EPS PNA derivatives but  (GEFs PNA + said persistence)/2 = something less dramatically deep and wound up ...

We could cut, but it would be a flatter trajectory and not likely foisting a misty DP anomaly and southerly gale with it... More likely sharp c-fropa type ...  I would look for that as the more plausible correction for now.

However, before even getting there ... if the 22nd (~) system were to get more intriguing it's probably have a transitive influence on whatever happens next ..so, it's all fluid at that moment.

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...I fear coming off as an optimism bunny lately but unfortunately ...we are in a mode where that sort of look is not really fitting with the longer term/persistent progressive nature to the hemisphere.

That fast nature is both multi modal but also multi seasonal and goes back systemically for years at this point.. I don't "think" it yields just in time to allow that deep full latitude curvi-linear flow structure that moves the N-S length of the continental middle latitudes ... But, anomalies nested inside anomalies ... do take place from time to time. That just means... fast flow, then it slows for transiently, the back to fast flow - that transient slow down becomes an anomaly relative to the longer termed signal ...

Sparing a long sermon - it I think a flatter variation of that is favored by said persistence and also.. the because implicit teleconnector, PNA, is neutral positive from the GEFs... Haven't seen the EPS PNA derivatives but  (GEFs PNA + said persistence)/2 = something less dramatically deep and wound up ...

We could cut, but it wo

uld be a flatter trajectory and not likely foisting a misty DP anomaly and southerly gale with it... More likely sharp c-fropa type ...  I would look for that as the more plausible correction for now.

However, before even getting there ... if the 22nd (~) system were to get more intriguing it's probably have a transitive influence on whatever happens next ..so, it's all fluid at that moment.

An "optimism bunny"?:lol:

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...I fear coming off as an optimism bunny lately but unfortunately ...we are in a mode where that sort of look is not really fitting with the longer term/persistent progressive nature to the hemisphere.

That fast nature is both multi modal but also multi seasonal and goes back systemically for years at this point.. I don't "think" it yields just in time to allow that deep full latitude curvi-linear flow structure that moves the N-S length of the continental middle latitudes ... But, anomalies nested inside anomalies ... do take place from time to time. That just means... fast flow, then it slows for transiently, the back to fast flow - that transient slow down becomes an anomaly relative to the longer termed signal ...

Sparing a long sermon - it I think a flatter variation of that is favored by said persistence and also.. the because implicit teleconnector, PNA, is neutral positive from the GEFs... Haven't seen the EPS PNA derivatives but  (GEFs PNA + said persistence)/2 = something less dramatically deep and wound up ...

We could cut, but it would be a flatter trajectory and not likely foisting a misty DP anomaly and southerly gale with it... More likely sharp c-fropa type ...  I would look for that as the more plausible correction for now.

However, before even getting there ... if the 22nd (~) system were to get more intriguing it's probably have a transitive influence on whatever happens next ..so, it's all fluid at that moment.

Yeah I’m not thinking it morphs into a wintry event. More just a basic fropa instead of a cut scream 

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Out of the 251 towns in VT, how the heck did you come up with Wells?  You don’t hear that as a destination often.  I will say it’s pretty but Lake St. Catherine won’t do you much good this time of year. I guess it’s not too far from I-87/Lake George, NY. Anywhere in VT is good around the holidays. They were closer to the death band that sat there today but I don’t know how much that area ended up with. 

Wells is probably one of those towns prone to completely torching 

Maybe PF could hook him up w a tent and sleeping bags by the picnic tables. Probably a solid view of Santa trying to battle the 80kt Southerly Jet progged on  Xmas eve . Hopefully that changes 

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro looks like it would produce

image.png.3048d02c641e236f9cb600d5aa548dde.png

Or is right at the threshold and can't get any more indicative or it has to - it's really right on the edge --.. I'd say if we can grab a hold of those isopses leaving the MA out over the open Atlantic and get 'em into 'bent' configuration (while of course conserving the appeal of those two precarious phasers- even a little on the next run ) we're probably headed for something

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