Bostonseminole Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: 12z CMC much closer to some fun. Of course GFS moves east again. Amazing how much models are changing 4 days in hopefully the EURO follows with something.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: hopefully the EURO follows with something.. I'm already tracking it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm already tracking it You hacked into the ecmwf supercomputer? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, JC-CT said: You hacked into the ecmwf supercomputer? Please, you know the cop thing is just a ruse, he's actually their main IT guy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 54 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Hope your mom gets the all clear and no COVID! We're hoping she doesn't... Sorry I don't/didn't mean to just interject that and turn this into another pandemic diversion ... man, I'm sure I share in this desire to see this just be accepted into the cultural pathways so we can cultivate new drama from new headlines ( yes...that's sardonic, but we are "sick" of this damn thing, with all due puns intended...) Yeah, no - like many aging Boomers ...they didn't live their lives with the life-style advantages we have... We don't just benefit from nutritional availability, we have science and know-how about what not to do. My f'n parents smoked for like 30 years...and ate confection isolated sweetened beverages and cherry pies, because they were proud of mid century main-stay provisions to the masses their generation put together so that those of us alive today could benefit from their mistakes as we witness their elderly decay - it's sad... They enjoyed there lives the best they could.. and now, we put our parent in the Earth for all kinds of varied reasons, ...not just the "pandimensional hysteria," and sometimes prematurely when comparing/ased on our generation(s)'s life expectancy ... So, she has other underlying pre-existing..blah blah-blah blah blah like so many... + age .. So she starts up with sudden and weird symptoms a week ago and is bed ridden as of yesterday ...and in Michigan, where they are handing out diagnosis like candies from an exploded Pinata ... she can't go to an ER/hospital because that's doom - she's definitely liable to catch it there... So she is in wait of a stressed out medical infrastructure to send a PCP that does in home stops when there are so few left available - f what a cluster f man! Meanwhile...I'm scared shitless of being orphaned for some reason - and I think it's because I'm desperately lonely and ugly and evolution has apparently slated me for discard - heh... not being totally serious...It's just that when one life's gestation goes deeper into with middle age, and they don't have certain needs fulfilled... watching the possible palliative stages of one's parent's lives unfold before them ... really hones what they are missing - especially when their mother's voice is slurring and crackling, when she's asking them, 'have you found a g-friend,' with an ounce of found cheer. you get it - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Euro made a huge jump toward a system on 12/21-22.....gonna go wide right, but close call. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro made a huge jump toward a system on 12/21-22.....gonna go wide right, but close call. yeah, some mood snows but at least is not a cutter.. now we need a nice west trend.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro made a huge jump toward a system on 12/21-22.....gonna go wide right, but close call. yeah...no sense getting into a huge re-iterative babble ...but here we go again. This is all coming off the Pac regardless of model at a low curvature, high speed amplitude pattern... which is code for not being really in the wheel-house set up for any guidance. Sampling/assimilation "almost" screwed the pooch on today's system, but we managed to hold the wave mechanics long enough to get (... fascinatingly) an isolated historic result out of seemingly less - very interesting actually.. Anyway, we'll be relaying Saturday for next Tuesday's shenanigans ... plenty of time to bring this into emergence and then f-it all up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Adding to Will's Euro ... ...that D6 is different now too.. It's showing less in the way of full-latitude N/Stream dominance resulting in a Buffalo route ... That's a "quasi" 50/50 there too - if transitive actually, if that upper MW wave were a tad weaker that would be better, because in that notion it likely rolls more E and probably does an NJ model job on the upper MA/NE regions... extrapolating - we'll see how the D7 --> makes me a liar, but this D6 doesn't strike me as a total loss in that time range ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Adding to Will's Euro ... ...that D6 is different now too.. It's showing less in the way of full-latitude N/Stream dominance resulting in a Buffalo route ... That's a "quasi" 50/50 there too - if transitive actually, if that upper MW wave were a tad weaker that would be better, because in that notion it likely rolls more E and probably does an NJ model job on the upper MA/NE regions... extrapolating - we'll see how the D7 --> makes me a liar, but this D6 doesn't strike me as a total loss in that time range ... Yeah I've been waiting for that Grinch storm to start getting muted...based on the longer wave features. There's some risk of a cutter there, but we've been seeing a transient 50/50 feature and a -NAO that could try and put the squeeze on that trough a bit. The Grinch storm basically fails this run, but it doesn't result in a snow event for us....at least yet. More like a quick FROPA and then a weak wave along the front Xmas Eve night that doesn't do much...maybe give us a little bit of light snow. At least we're not ripping 55F+ dewpoints into New England like on some other runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 That end frame on the Euro is a prelude to something interesting on the EC... With the obvious caveat emptor in stride that we have almost no hope of that setting up that way ( lol ..), notice the heights over Florida are both less than 582, and there are larger distances opening up in the isohypses between Texas and S of Bermuda... The flow is very compressible there, and we see a lot of ejected mid stream PV gunk about ready to potentially phase with that seeder southern streamer in S TX, ...I bet that whole business would be fun - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 I'm actually hoping we can turn the Christmas Eve storm into a ow topped convective/severe threat. 1 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That end frame on the Euro is a prelude to something interesting on the EC... With the obvious caveat emptor in stride that we have almost no hope of that setting up that way ( lol ..), notice the heights over Florida are both less than 582, and there are larger distances opening up in the isohypses between Texas and S of Bermuda... The flow is very compressible there, and we see a lot of ejected mid stream PV gunk about ready to potentially phase with that seeder southern streamer in S TX, ...I bet that whole business would be fun - This idea is hanging around a lot of the OPs/ensembles for that time frame. Obviously D 10 though If only we could blend the cmc and euro Christmas shortwave setup...basically 3 time periods to watch right now, hopefully as we get closer details look better and better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 JMA (just showing As an example) would def be how we would want Christmas to unfold. Shortwave scoots ahead and dampens heights and the remaining energy about to head up coast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 35 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm actually hoping we can turn the Christmas Eve storm into a ow topped convective/severe threat. We don’t like this version of you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I've been waiting for that Grinch storm to start getting muted...based on the longer wave features. There's some risk of a cutter there, but we've been seeing a transient 50/50 feature and a -NAO that could try and put the squeeze on that trough a bit. The Grinch storm basically fails this run, but it doesn't result in a snow event for us....at least yet. More like a quick FROPA and then a weak wave along the front Xmas Eve night that doesn't do much...maybe give us a little bit of light snow. At least we're not ripping 55F+ dewpoints into New England like on some other runs. It’s been gone off models since Tuesday really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 32 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: This idea is hanging around a lot of the OPs/ensembles for that time frame. Obviously D 10 though If only we could blend the cmc and euro Christmas shortwave setup...basically 3 time periods to watch right now, hopefully as we get closer details look better and better Hmm ..funny you mentioned this - I was just gonna pop off a paragraph about how the GGEM looks like a staggard progression of the Euro's tastiness there - There could certainly be some 'useful speculation' above the background noise to watch for ... I agree, 22nd-ish ... albeit a long shot but interesting trends, and we'll wait to see what Saturday's relay off the Pacific does ( or doesn't ) for that... But the latter event "might" just have a bit of Archembualtian vibe to it - I almost wonder if we'll see this subtle +PNA handling at CPC continue to emerge over the next few days, because sometimes the deterministic solution will hint prior to the ensembles - it's rare but sometimes... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 29 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: JMA (just showing As an example) would def be how we would want Christmas to unfold. Shortwave scoots ahead and dampens heights and the remaining energy about to head up coast ... Thing is, I agree with what Will hinted, as a general theme in/and/of awareness over the planetary hemisphere - the flow doesn't really support those uber N-S ( meridian) looks. It goes against the persistence canvas, which favors less Y and more X coordinate stretching. It's not to say things can't relax. Anomalies relative to on-going anomalies, nested ..etc.. I just think the "correction vector" - or where to look for the correction tendencies if you will, that should be pointed toward less full-latitude phasing - certainly not so early in the continent. This sort logic worked for the system prior to this one, even if it was a dynamics bust - or maybe it was the one before that ? either way, those were originally destined to Chicago and neither really went that far west.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 37 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: JMA (just showing As an example) would def be how we would want Christmas to unfold. Shortwave scoots ahead and dampens heights and the remaining energy about to head up coast Yeah, too bad that is: - the JMA - any model at 192 hours ... but, I will say... the Euro, GGEM, and this above? They are in tolerance distance for 'agreement' considering the extended. Just for fun though, if this had a 216 hour panel, that would probably be a 957 mb low E of NJ. That is absolute hyper perfect subsume scenario, with that arctic polar jet just dangling precariously while the southern stream plays tag with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Afternoon all. Mid-Atlantic snow-starved weenie here transporting his family to New England for a chance at a white Christmas. At least a Christmas with snow on the ground. lol I've given up on any chance of a DC white Christmas for my young children to experience. So, decided to chase cold air before they lose their over-the-top excitement of seeing snow. Wife picked Wells, VT. I'll be lurking in your forum for the next few weeks! Cheers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Tip let me ask you a question wrt something I’m noticing...excuse my lack of Met vocabulary, but the early December storm in NE was from a shortwave that kind of got pinched off from the flow and then “rounded the corner”...the storm last night had cold air in place because of Monday’s event which did the same thing. Still way too far out and the major players could be totally different, but I wonder if this wave length pattern could be more prone to repeat itself. We would kind of benefit from something similar happening because as you said we’d see that quasi 50/50. Idk just something I’m noticing, probably just random Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: Afternoon all. Mid-Atlantic snow-starved weenie here transporting his family to New England for a chance at a white Christmas. At least a Christmas with snow on the ground. lol I've given up on any chance of a DC white Christmas for my young children to experience. So, decided to chase cold air before they lose their over-the-top excitement of seeing snow. Wife picked Wells, VT. I'll be lurking in your forum for the next few weeks! Cheers! LOL....good choice. I think they got about 30 inches in this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 NAM looks meh for dec21.. rain showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Pre storm dusk photo IMBY. About Dec 13, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: NAM looks meh for dec21.. rain showers That wave we're interested in is the one down in Georgia at 84h. This run wouldn't get it done but that is the shortwave we need to watch if it can phase with the one diving through the N plains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That wave we're interested in is the one down in Georgia at 84h. This run wouldn't get it done but that is the shortwave we need to watch if it can phase with the one diving through the N plains. How did the EPS look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: JMA (just showing As an example) would def be how we would want Christmas to unfold. Shortwave scoots ahead and dampens heights and the remaining energy about to head up coast Where did you go for this past storm, and how did it work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: How did the EPS look? EPS loos good, strong rockies ridge, phasing trough, there is no clear 50/50 block, and unsure if there is a surface high present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That wave we're interested in is the one down in Georgia at 84h. This run wouldn't get it done but that is the shortwave we need to watch if it can phase with the one diving through the N plains. ok OK, sorry for the confusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 16 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Where did you go for this past storm, and how did it work out? Lewisburg PA...i think got in the edge of some of that subsidence . I got around 14 (I never measure for some reason) and not trying to complain because I had a good time, but...Relatively horrific, considering just 45 minute drive to be has reports of 24. Walt told me to go to BGM too. Idk why I didn’t setup farther N. Probably regret it for a long time lol. Right when that mega band was setting up the snow almost shutoff here momentarily I could see low clouds moving in the sky and it was like really pelty badly formed snowflakes falling. Lasted for at least an hour. It did pick up again though on the back end, but I just never saw those incredible rates I was chasing for. actually at around 2:30 I contemplated making the trip up to pa ny border. I had around 2-3 inches at the time, I literally actually got in my car with my bags ready to try it, but decided to play it safe. Turns out there was a huge pileup on i80 anyway. Probably was a good decision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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