JC-CT Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, kdxken said: I'll take the over. It needs work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 If Walt likes NYC for snow. New England is in great shape. Grinch fail 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Mothman said: I'm really not trying to troll or weenie, it looks like we warm at xmas eve for a couple days. Enjoy the festive look...GFS has been waffling though. I mean yeah but that’s only because the trough is really digging southward. It will head east. I think we’ll some interesting things events pop up on the models soon between Xmas and nye. After that idk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If Walt likes NYC for snow. New England is in great shape. Grinch fail He likes this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 ready for the next fix.. Dec 21/22? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: ready for the next fix.. Dec 21/22? Haha me too. It’s a problem, especially when my visibility is still about 1/4 mile right now in heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 What kind of temps are we looking at between tomorrow and next week in SNE? We going to lose all of this snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, Cold Miser said: What kind of temps are we looking at between tomorrow and next week in SNE? We going to lose all of this snow? No, 30’s for the most part. Saturday maybe upper 20’s to near 30. Xmas Eve, a week from today looks the mildest currently with low 40’s. But who knows cuz that’s 7 days away? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: ready for the next fix.. Dec 21/22? Just saw the 6z GFS that was real close to a biggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, ineedsnow said: Just saw the 6z GFS that was real close to a biggie A James special perhaps? Not sure if the GFS is on its own again though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Ok. I'm over this bitch-ass storm. What's next? Christmas Eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: Ok. I'm over this bitch-ass storm. What's next? Christmas Eve? What is the total for your area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: What is the total for your area? I eye-balled like 5-6" when I cleared the driveway earlier. Nary a flake falling from the sky. Snow globe snow now. The 24-26th timeframe does look interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Ok. I'm over this bitch-ass storm. What's next? Christmas Eve? Lmfao...good one. Ya, what’s next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Fwiw Harv said this morning quiet and cold weekend with a mild up early to mid-week, possible rain just prior to Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I eye-balled like 5-6" when I cleared the driveway earlier. Nary a flake falling from the sky. Snow globe snow now. The 24-26th timeframe does look interesting. Ouch, your gonna take the golden pork award. Around 9" here and I thought I was doing bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: I eye-balled like 5-6" when I cleared the driveway earlier. Nary a flake falling from the sky. Snow globe snow now. The 24-26th timeframe does look interesting. How does your total compare to surrounding towns? I agree with you regarding the 24th-26th time period. I'd like to see the "warm" air get pinched south of SNE/So NH. I think it is possible because of the snowpack in the east. Pure speculation on my part...perhaps a situation where 2 waves form along the front. First wave is rain/mix....2nd wave is more snow/mix....perhaps the front sets up along the dividing line of the snowpack to the north and west and the "warmer" water to the south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Ouch, your gonna take the golden pork award. Around 9" here and I thought I was doing bad. I measured 10 in Methuen at 7 AM. One thing I noticed was the snow was heavier than I expected it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lmfao...good one. Ya, what’s next? What is your total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: What is your total? About 13” here. Solid Storm for sure. If we could have gotten under one more band...would have pushed us up close to the 18” mark, and the next level. But a very nice event nonetheless. Looks and feels like deep winter..can’t ask for much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: About 13” here. Solid Storm for sure. If we could have gotten under one more band...would have pushed us up close to the 18” mark, and the next level. But a very nice event nonetheless. Looks and feels like deep winter..can’t ask for much more. I agree. And sets the stage for a white Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 12z CMC much closer to some fun. Of course GFS moves east again. Amazing how much models are changing 4 days in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z CMC much closer to some fun. Of course GFS moves east again. Amazing how much models are changing 4 days in Yeah, the ggem was interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z CMC much closer to some fun. Of course GFS moves east again. Amazing how much models are changing 4 days in Well the GFS is gonna go rogue now, cuz that’s what it does about 4 day out...it barfs on itself and then slowly cleans itself up, and tries to make itself presentable. Just like with this event..at 4 days out it went nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 12z CMC shows a possible winter storm 12/25-26. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Sorry I haven't circled back on my '20th - 23rd' suggestion from the other day - with this thing and my Mom apparently having the C-19 ( being tested for it...) it's been a bit harrowing ... But, I still think those days are on the table - though perhaps even less obviously so as this one we rejoice in ( or not...), today. The 06z GFS would be snowing over SE sections compensating for warm ptype fetish in cold thickness/and obtuse BL thermal dynamics in falling precipitation - the other aspect with that 50 mb low trajectory other synoptic events cannot really be precluded - Now...having seen much other guidance, but the CPC PNA does show that subtle PNA rising so ... and this all hearkens back to the GEFs individual member suite from five days ago, that showed a more robust presentation over eastern N/A mid latitudes then... 12z seems to carry it too - Thing is, ...we are still in a neutral -positive overall fast flow pattern... Low curvature amplitude, but very amplified in the W-E coordinate alone.. .This is always problematic for timing and placement with this Pac assimilated waves... I mean, this one we're getting today ...was in fact, ultimately victimized by wave-space robbing as the MW ordeal is crowing and kicking it alone, and lift the flow up the E actually limits the today's wave space could have even amplified - it was a late arrival correction to the modeling over three days immediately leading ? if folks recall, and we had to scramble a bit to decide what would happen. The cold rich anomalous arctic air being place, cause today's to split open - I annotated some art work to describe this in the obs thread if anyone's curious... I see this next [admittedly, probably miss, sure ...] as still having some uncertainty where we cannot rule it out entirely as being a clip across the region... The wave mechanics end as another quasi -southern stream, and it is unclear it if gets, damped out, pulled ne into an eventual phase, or left behind... If that were not enough - the N/stream alone is precariously close enough to do an NJ model low type ... Haven't looked at the surface but the 500 mb 12z looks rather "clipper deepening" toward the 23rd.. These mechanics don't get sampled until Saturday's cycling so ... here we go again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 GGEM looks pretty sharp at 500 mb around the 22nd too - more so than the 00z ... It's also got a touch of 'Miami rule' look though, having it's PV fields slopping backward across the N gulf that way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Ho man - what an epic Boxing Day mess in that GGEM cinema - ...and that is coming from a model with a consummate warm boundary layer in that range... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Sorry I haven't circled back on my '20th - 23rd' suggestion from the other day - with this thing and my Mom apparently having the C-19 ( being tested for it...) it's been a bit harrowing ... But, I still think those days are on the table - though perhaps even less obviously so as this one we rejoice in ( or not...), today. The 06z GFS would be snowing over SE sections compensating for warm ptype fetish in cold thickness/and obtuse BL thermal dynamics in falling precipitation - the other aspect with that 50 mb low trajectory other synoptic events cannot really be precluded - Now...having seen much other guidance, but the CPC PNA does show that subtle PNA rising so ... and this all hearkens back to the GEFs individual member suite from five days ago, that showed a more robust presentation over eastern N/A mid latitudes then... 12z seems to carry it too - Thing is, ...we are still in a neutral -positive overall fast flow pattern... Low curvature amplitude, but very amplified in the W-E coordinate alone.. .This is always problematic for timing and placement with this Pac assimilated waves... I mean, this one we're getting today ...was in fact, ultimately victimized by wave-space robbing as the MW ordeal is crowing and kicking it alone, and lift the flow up the E actually limits the today's wave space could have even amplified - it was a late arrival correction to the modeling over three days immediately leading ? if folks recall, and we had to scramble a bit to decide what would happen. The cold rich anomalous arctic air being place, cause today's to split open - I annotated some art work to describe this in the obs thread if anyone's curious... I see this next [admittedly, probably miss, sure ...] as still having some uncertainty where we cannot rule it out entirely as being a clip across the region... The wave mechanics end as another quasi -southern stream, and it is unclear it if gets, damped out, pulled ne into an eventual phase, or left behind... If that were not enough - the N/stream alone is precariously close enough to do an NJ model low type ... Haven't looked at the surface but the 500 mb 12z looks rather "clipper deepening" toward the 23rd.. These mechanics don't get sampled until Saturday's cycling so ... here we go again! Hope Your Mom, comes back Negative..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Sorry I haven't circled back on my '20th - 23rd' suggestion from the other day - with this thing and my Mom apparently having the C-19 ( being tested for it...) it's been a bit harrowing ... But, I still think those days are on the table - though perhaps even less obviously so as this one we rejoice in ( or not...), today. The 06z GFS would be snowing over SE sections compensating for warm ptype fetish in cold thickness/and obtuse BL thermal dynamics in falling precipitation - the other aspect with that 50 mb low trajectory other synoptic events cannot really be precluded - Now...having seen much other guidance, but the CPC PNA does show that subtle PNA rising so ... and this all hearkens back to the GEFs individual member suite from five days ago, that showed a more robust presentation over eastern N/A mid latitudes then... 12z seems to carry it too - Thing is, ...we are still in a neutral -positive overall fast flow pattern... Low curvature amplitude, but very amplified in the W-E coordinate alone.. .This is always problematic for timing and placement with this Pac assimilated waves... I mean, this one we're getting today ...was in fact, ultimately victimized by wave-space robbing as the MW ordeal is crowing and kicking it alone, and lift the flow up the E actually limits the today's wave space could have even amplified - it was a late arrival correction to the modeling over three days immediately leading ? if folks recall, and we had to scramble a bit to decide what would happen. The cold rich anomalous arctic air being place, cause today's to split open - I annotated some art work to describe this in the obs thread if anyone's curious... I see this next [admittedly, probably miss, sure ...] as still having some uncertainty where we cannot rule it out entirely as being a clip across the region... The wave mechanics end as another quasi -southern stream, and it is unclear it if gets, damped out, pulled ne into an eventual phase, or left behind... If that were not enough - the N/stream alone is precariously close enough to do an NJ model low type ... Haven't looked at the surface but the 500 mb 12z looks rather "clipper deepening" toward the 23rd.. These mechanics don't get sampled until Saturday's cycling so ... here we go again! Hope your mom gets the all clear and no COVID! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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