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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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1 hour ago, Mothman said:

I'm really not trying to troll or weenie, it looks like we warm at xmas eve for a couple days. Enjoy the festive look...GFS has been waffling though. 

I mean yeah but that’s only because the trough is really digging southward. It will head east. I think we’ll some interesting things events pop up on the models soon between Xmas and nye. After that idk. 

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Just now, Cold Miser said:

What kind of temps are we looking at between tomorrow and next week in SNE? We going to lose all of this snow?

No, 30’s for the most part. Saturday maybe upper 20’s to near 30.  Xmas Eve, a week from today looks the mildest currently with low 40’s.  But who knows cuz that’s 7 days away? 

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4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I eye-balled like 5-6" when I cleared the driveway earlier. Nary a flake falling from the sky. Snow globe snow now.

The 24-26th timeframe does look interesting.

Ouch, your gonna take the golden pork award. Around 9" here and I thought I was doing bad. 

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Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

I eye-balled like 5-6" when I cleared the driveway earlier. Nary a flake falling from the sky. Snow globe snow now.

The 24-26th timeframe does look interesting.

How does your total compare to surrounding towns? I agree with you regarding the 24th-26th time period.  I'd like to see the "warm" air get pinched south of SNE/So NH. I think it is possible because of the snowpack in the east.  Pure speculation on my part...perhaps a situation where 2 waves form along the front. First wave is rain/mix....2nd wave is more snow/mix....perhaps the front sets up along the dividing line of the snowpack to the north and west and the "warmer" water to the south and east. 

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9 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

What is your total?

 

About 13” here.  Solid Storm for sure.  
 

If we could have gotten under one more band...would have pushed us up close to the 18” mark, and the next level.  But a very nice event nonetheless.  Looks and feels like deep winter..can’t ask for much more. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

About 13” here.  Solid Storm for sure.  
 

If we could have gotten under one more band...would have pushed us up close to the 18” mark, and the next level.  But a very nice event nonetheless.  Looks and feels like deep winter..can’t ask for much more. 

I agree. And sets the stage for a white Christmas. 

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18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z CMC much closer to some fun.   Of course GFS moves east again. Amazing how much models are changing  4 days in

Well the GFS is gonna go rogue now, cuz that’s what it does about 4 day out...it barfs on itself and then slowly cleans itself up, and tries to make itself presentable.  
 

Just like with this event..at 4 days out it went nuts. 

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Sorry I haven't circled back on my '20th - 23rd' suggestion from the other day - with this thing and my Mom apparently having the C-19 ( being tested for it...) it's been a bit harrowing ...

But, I still think those days are on the table - though perhaps even less obviously so as this one we rejoice in ( or not...), today.  The 06z GFS would be snowing over SE sections compensating for warm ptype fetish in cold thickness/and obtuse BL thermal dynamics in falling precipitation - the other aspect with that 50 mb low trajectory other synoptic events cannot really be precluded -

Now...having seen much other guidance, but the CPC PNA does show that subtle PNA rising so ... and this all hearkens back to the GEFs individual member suite from five days ago, that showed a more robust presentation over eastern N/A mid latitudes then...   12z seems to carry it too -

Thing is, ...we are still in a neutral -positive overall fast flow pattern... Low curvature amplitude,  but very amplified in the W-E coordinate alone.. .This is always problematic for timing and placement with this Pac assimilated waves...

I mean, this one we're getting today ...was in fact, ultimately victimized by wave-space robbing as the MW ordeal is crowing and kicking it alone, and lift the flow up the E actually limits the today's wave space could have even amplified - it was a late arrival correction to the modeling over three days immediately leading ? if folks recall, and we had to scramble a bit to decide what would happen.  The cold rich anomalous arctic air being place, cause today's to split open - I annotated some art work to describe this in the obs thread if anyone's curious...

I see this next [admittedly, probably miss, sure ...] as still having some uncertainty where we cannot rule it out entirely as being a clip across the region...  The wave mechanics end as another quasi -southern stream, and it is unclear it if gets,   damped out, pulled ne into an eventual phase, or left behind...  If that were not enough - the N/stream alone is precariously close enough to do an NJ model low type ... Haven't looked at the surface but the 500 mb 12z looks rather "clipper deepening" toward the 23rd.. These mechanics don't get sampled until Saturday's cycling so ... here we go again!

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sorry I haven't circled back on my '20th - 23rd' suggestion from the other day - with this thing and my Mom apparently having the C-19 ( being tested for it...) it's been a bit harrowing ...

But, I still think those days are on the table - though perhaps even less obviously so as this one we rejoice in ( or not...), today.  The 06z GFS would be snowing over SE sections compensating for warm ptype fetish in cold thickness/and obtuse BL thermal dynamics in falling precipitation - the other aspect with that 50 mb low trajectory other synoptic events cannot really be precluded -

Now...having seen much other guidance, but the CPC PNA does show that subtle PNA rising so ... and this all hearkens back to the GEFs individual member suite from five days ago, that showed a more robust presentation over eastern N/A mid latitudes then...   12z seems to carry it too -

Thing is, ...we are still in a neutral -positive overall fast flow pattern... Low curvature amplitude,  but very amplified in the W-E coordinate alone.. .This is always problematic for timing and placement with this Pac assimilated waves...

I mean, this one we're getting today ...was in fact, ultimately victimized by wave-space robbing as the MW ordeal is crowing and kicking it alone, and lift the flow up the E actually limits the today's wave space could have even amplified - it was a late arrival correction to the modeling over three days immediately leading ? if folks recall, and we had to scramble a bit to decide what would happen.  The cold rich anomalous arctic air being place, cause today's to split open - I annotated some art work to describe this in the obs thread if anyone's curious...

I see this next [admittedly, probably miss, sure ...] as still having some uncertainty where we cannot rule it out entirely as being a clip across the region...  The wave mechanics end as another quasi -southern stream, and it is unclear it if gets,   damped out, pulled ne into an eventual phase, or left behind...  If that were not enough - the N/stream alone is precariously close enough to do an NJ model low type ... Haven't looked at the surface but the 500 mb 12z looks rather "clipper deepening" toward the 23rd.. These mechanics don't get sampled until Saturday's cycling so ... here we go again!

 

Hope Your Mom, comes back Negative.....

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37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sorry I haven't circled back on my '20th - 23rd' suggestion from the other day - with this thing and my Mom apparently having the C-19 ( being tested for it...) it's been a bit harrowing ...

But, I still think those days are on the table - though perhaps even less obviously so as this one we rejoice in ( or not...), today.  The 06z GFS would be snowing over SE sections compensating for warm ptype fetish in cold thickness/and obtuse BL thermal dynamics in falling precipitation - the other aspect with that 50 mb low trajectory other synoptic events cannot really be precluded -

Now...having seen much other guidance, but the CPC PNA does show that subtle PNA rising so ... and this all hearkens back to the GEFs individual member suite from five days ago, that showed a more robust presentation over eastern N/A mid latitudes then...   12z seems to carry it too -

Thing is, ...we are still in a neutral -positive overall fast flow pattern... Low curvature amplitude,  but very amplified in the W-E coordinate alone.. .This is always problematic for timing and placement with this Pac assimilated waves...

I mean, this one we're getting today ...was in fact, ultimately victimized by wave-space robbing as the MW ordeal is crowing and kicking it alone, and lift the flow up the E actually limits the today's wave space could have even amplified - it was a late arrival correction to the modeling over three days immediately leading ? if folks recall, and we had to scramble a bit to decide what would happen.  The cold rich anomalous arctic air being place, cause today's to split open - I annotated some art work to describe this in the obs thread if anyone's curious...

I see this next [admittedly, probably miss, sure ...] as still having some uncertainty where we cannot rule it out entirely as being a clip across the region...  The wave mechanics end as another quasi -southern stream, and it is unclear it if gets,   damped out, pulled ne into an eventual phase, or left behind...  If that were not enough - the N/stream alone is precariously close enough to do an NJ model low type ... Haven't looked at the surface but the 500 mb 12z looks rather "clipper deepening" toward the 23rd.. These mechanics don't get sampled until Saturday's cycling so ... here we go again!

Hope your mom gets the all clear and no COVID!

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