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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it is a bit east-based....but it gets the job done. It does poke into the davis strait some. The 50/50 low is VERY potent though which kind of makes up for the NAO block itself being mediocre in stregnth (it's not like we have 560dm heights over Greenland here)...so the conglomerate Atlantic pattern together (both NAO block itself and the 50/50 low) acts as a potent block.

The main trough is already starting to go negative in the Mississippi valley which iswhy I think we want this Atlantic blocking

 

Dec11_12zECMWF120.png

I'm about to fire up a thread for multi-event potential next week and would like to use your annotation above if you don't mind?  I'm just gonna have to do it again otherwise - 

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24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

John, it's had a Greenland ridge for a few days now. That's actually been a stable feature.

It hasn't been readily observable for me because I was being a presumptive asshole ?   lol - no seriously...what this is .. is the depth of these SPVs and '50/50's around the ring of the PV are exceptionally deep. 

By virtue of those ...it is making the index derivatives negative ...and typically, we don't see "ridge" at 534 dm ... But, the Euro has a 564 now up there over the eastern limb of the NAO and Will's pointed out that it may have been easterly bias -..though attempting to retrograde ...anyway, point is, the circumstance didn't leap out as very obvious - kind of an insidious -NAO if you will..  interesting.  

But, that 50/50 is exceptionally deep and I'm seeing enough evidence in the GEFs also - big fan of cross guidance method - that a 50/50 occurrence is likely real... and that's just as valid as Will pointed out.   In fact, I just posted to him and Ray myself that I though the SPV depths were maybe "why" the AO was negative more so than going the other way with taller heights ... then it rears a factorable ugly head in this analysis an hour later.  huh -

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wonder if Monday is a little jacked on euro. 

Its inside the Euro amped bias window now and its also not a very strong/"phased" system which the Op has tended to go too strong on recent years .  Given the trends the last 5-6 winters with these sort of systems I think the Euro may be correct on this one being NW 

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