40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Monday I'll feel a lot better on Sunday, once the wave comes ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 The 20th is starting to get me interested for out here. Euro OP looks nice for Thursday out here but it's 6 days out and very different than the GFS. Ensembles, I'm still learning how to read them but I'll assume we ride them until we get inside 4-5 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 We can start feeling confident that Monday's shortwave will remain south tomorrow morning once the energy is fully sampled and onshore the west coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, GCWarrior said: The 20th is starting to get me interested for out here. Euro OP looks nice for Thursday out here but it's 6 days out and very different than the GFS. Ensembles, I'm still learning how to read them but I'll assume we ride them until we get inside 4-5 days? Yea, once inside of 4 days I focus on OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 31 minutes ago, leo2000 said: A big change in the CFS weeklies for January much colder! and the CFS monthly as well for January. Wow just looked what a flip. We loose the NAO after week 3 but the PNA spikes giving us the trough the following weeks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Looks like we go from coastal track pattern to overrunning pattern as -NAO decomposes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, Henry's Weather said: Looks like we go from coastal track pattern to overrunning pattern as -NAO decomposes That is the idea...only question is when does rigor mortis set in haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Man euro jacked up for monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 May have to watch Monday on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 We want the Monday crap to move fast for midweek, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Trying for a partial phase with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: We want the Monday crap to move fast for midweek, no? That would probably muck it up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Euro has like 2-4 inches over interior for Monday. Maybe even into BOS an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro has like 2-4 inches over interior for Monday. Maybe even into BOS an inch or two. I hope this doesn't ruin the main show. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Will ...Ray ... I'm not sure that Atlantic is as 'backward instructive' with blocking anyway - The NAO in the GEFS - for how little that is worth ... - is really more neutralizing. The AO contribution - sort of unrelated to the initial point - is interestingly vastly negative ... yet, we only see small blocking nodes. I am seeing very deep SPV holes in the rampart /ring around the pole, and I almost wonder if the AO is really being calculated in the derivatives as negative more so by virtue of those SPV depths ... The thing is... that notion/idea may be supported in concept by the fact that the flow is so fast in a -AO, which is kind of not really typical... Typically in a blocking.. retrograde becomes more common which is synonymous with slowing fields down... I wonder if we're being dealt I kind of oddity in/how the negative polar fields or getting to those lower index numbers. But as said ..that's off topic... I do think that the Atlantic offers some openness to interpretation and that it's not as 'blocking' as we think - What are the EPS numbers now ?? I'm wondering if there may be cross ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Yeah looks like Euro has better phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hope this doesn't ruin the main show. Any which way they can 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll feel a lot better on Sunday, once the wave comes ashore. Sampling is everything. Hard to call a game when you don’t know who is in the starting line-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Would rather Monday trend away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 I bet this comes south w main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Would rather Monday trend away. Agree. Goona trade a foot for an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Although that s/w is potent. Might not matter, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hope this doesn't ruin the main show. that was said earlier in this thread too - that often in these rapid succession/Pac relay fast patterns, the lead waves end up becoming dominant as sampling improves coming off the Pacific. Well ?? - So, right now..Monday's system is at last over the west continental areas ... But here's the thing - the flow is not "slowing down" just because Monday may Currier and Ive us... I don't see/imagine that as a delimiter as by the time the "main show" as you say is getting engineered... Monday's thing is tipping cows in an Irish pasture - ..again, I don't think the Atlantic is instructively blocking things and back logging .. just from what I'm seeing - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hope this doesn't ruin the main show. Not this run it won't. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Although the H5 is closes sooner out west....we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Would rather Monday trend away. I would almost take 3-6 inches on Monday...still worried that Wednesday gets shoved too far south in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Not this run it won't. Agree....but scary trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 That s/w is balls. This could be good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Although that s/w is potent. Might not matter, we shall see. We're gonna want the blocking....this thing in the middle of the country looks like a cutter normally would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: That s/w is balls. This could be good. Digging more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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