December 2020 Discussion

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I forget how my forecast did in that...

i think i might have pulled this from you that storm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I just read this.

And yes i can confirm NWS Zones had 18-24 the night before...lots a huge amounts from local stations, i went pretty conservative and still busted high. We changed over to heavy sleet and snow, some of the heaviest ive seen by 10am and it was supposed to snow all day. I was definitely dissapointed with 9.9 on a 12-20 forecast from myself and NWS 18-24. Could have been worse though, you could have been expected warning amounts and ended up with 2" in KGON. Last minute bumps NW FTL.

It was still a great season though and we did have a big boy 10-18 statewide the month before with lots of TSSN. Jan had a nice daytime blizzard as well.

Fyi..

 

 

 

Yea, not great lol

 

The Eastern Mass Weather snowfall forecast for the intense system that traversed the region yesterday was fair, as it was was slightly too high in general across the area. The storm trended even further west than we had anticipated that it would, which entailed warmer air making headway into the area:

Forecast was Slightly Too Robust, Especially from I-95 Points North and West

 

[The 4 Seasons]

Global models continue to signal a southern stream-dominated low
pressure system that could approach and pass nearby sometime
from Wednesday into Wednesday night impacting the local area.
Will not be making any significant changes to the current
forecast during this time period being this is still far out in
time. Right now it appears that the most likely precipitation
types would be rain at the coast and a wintry mix inland with
the possibility of light snow towards the tail end late
Wednesday night, but this has plenty of time to change. High
pressure builds back across the area on Thursday.

Um....

 

[Ginx snewx]

Trend has been south have to watch the windshield effect this weekend. ENS certainly are robust with 6 inch progs on the high side. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What is a corner sitter?

Cucky?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Upton at it again lol. Great news for snow lovers.

[The 4 Seasons]

Ensembles are all pointing to a near 40/70 track. Perfect strong high placement to the north. It's possible it can go either way, id lean towards more offshore though. Right now it appears to be mainly a white event not rain. What exactly is pointing to most likely being all rain at the coast and mix inland with possibly light snow at the very end? That's almost ridiculous to say. Terrible AFD long term write up imo.

BOX on the other hand, doesn't seem to be sniffing glue this morning.

Way more reasonable for the overall view of things.

Still a considerable amount of uncertainty in this timeframe. Not
too much of a change from the previous shift where the EPS/GEFS
shows clustering of surface lows near the benchmark. Still too early
to latch onto things given there still is a decent amount of spread
amongst ensemble and deterministic guidance. The operational GFS/CMC
do show impacts from the system, but more of a glancing blow in
comparison to the operational EC. Does appear that colder air should
be aided in being locked in with a surface high in place over
Quebec. Right now models show 925 hPa temperature ranging from 0 to -
15 degree Celsius. Given the uncertainty this far out have kept with
the NBM guidance and capped at high chance PoPs. Still much too
early for specifics. If a coastal storm pans out there could be some
coastal flooding concerns given the high astro tides and strong wind
gusts. Could also have significant snowfall, but really need to hone
in on specific details which are impossible to discern this far
out. Stay tuned for future updates.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Upton at it again lol. Great news for snow lovers.

They have me at 42 during the storm.

Imagine we finally get our long deserved NAO and it still rains.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Cucky?

Ray doesn’t know me that well. I don’t observe...I jump right in.

And it’s only because it rarely happens so when the opportunity presents itself...my clothes are off before I’ve been introduced.  

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Upton at it again lol. Great news for snow lovers.

I had to double check to make sure they weren't referring to the first possible event, or wave 1. And nope, no they weren't. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

They have me at 42 during the storm.

Imagine we finally get our long deserved NAO and it still rains.

39 here with r/s. I don’t pay much attention to their forecasts anyway. I’ll use it as a sounding board after I gather info from here. 

[Snowcrazed71]

What I like better is when they forecast a certain amount, then.. Within 24 hours of the storm they have to keep using the totals and we get more then they forecasted. Those are my favorites. :-)

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

39 here with r/s. I don’t pay much attention to their forecasts anyway. I’ll use it as a sounding board after I gather info from here. 

Were obv at the point where you just go chance pops. But at least BOX has the right idea with snow in the zones as the main ptype. It's not like i use it for anything i just had some spare time and figure id read the AFDs. BOX AFD 10/10, OKX AFD /10

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Were obv at the point where you just go chance pops. But at least BOX has the right idea with snow in the zones as the main ptype. It's not like i use it for anything i just had some spare time and figure id read the AFDs. BOX AFD 10/10, OKX AFD /10

Of course. We are far out but they could have a better AFD like BOX. Some weenies are paying attention reading those. 

[snowman21]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Were obv at the point where you just go chance pops. But at least BOX has the right idea with snow in the zones as the main ptype. It's not like i use it for anything i just had some spare time and figure id read the AFDs. BOX AFD 10/10, OKX AFD /10

Virtually everyone is saying rain/snow coast right now. OKX seems in line with that thinking at this time range. You're splitting hairs on a D6 forecast that they may have just kept the default grids without wasting any time tweaking something that's going to change a bunch of times anyway.

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not super-negative on January...I think it will back and forth, more hostile as we go along....February is awful, I think....but expect some mid atl event(s).

NAO according to GEFS already trending towards neutral. Do not have EPS so not sure if it aligns. Hopefully it will go negative again.

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I had to double check to make sure they weren't referring to the first possible event, or wave 1. And nope, no they weren't. 

Ya that was a horrible AFD to say the least. Piss-poor. 

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Virtually everyone is saying rain/snow coast right now. OKX seems in line with that thinking at this time range. You're splitting hairs on a D6 forecast that they may have just kept the default grids without wasting any time tweaking something that's going to change a bunch of times anyway.

It said rain at the coast and r/s inland. Thats different. Alsoim really not splitting hairs when im just talking about the overall conveyance of communication of the look of the storm on the AFD, not talking about the grids or zones. BOXs was spot on and imo, conveyed what we're all seeing while OKX read like a mainly liquid event. Either way its still 5.5 days out now.

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Ensembles are all pointing to a near 40/70 track. Perfect strong high placement to the north. It's possible it can go either way, id lean towards more offshore though. Right now it appears to be mainly a white event not rain. What exactly is pointing to most likely being all rain at the coast and mix inland with possibly light snow at the very end? That's almost ridiculous to say. Terrible AFD long term write up imo.

BOX on the other hand, doesn't seem to be sniffing glue this morning.

Way more reasonable for the overall view of things.

Still a considerable amount of uncertainty in this timeframe. Not
too much of a change from the previous shift where the EPS/GEFS
shows clustering of surface lows near the benchmark. Still too early
to latch onto things given there still is a decent amount of spread
amongst ensemble and deterministic guidance. The operational GFS/CMC
do show impacts from the system, but more of a glancing blow in
comparison to the operational EC. Does appear that colder air should
be aided in being locked in with a surface high in place over
Quebec. Right now models show 925 hPa temperature ranging from 0 to -
15 degree Celsius. Given the uncertainty this far out have kept with
the NBM guidance and capped at high chance PoPs. Still much too
early for specifics. If a coastal storm pans out there could be some
coastal flooding concerns given the high astro tides and strong wind
gusts. Could also have significant snowfall, but really need to hone
in on specific details which are impossible to discern this far
out. Stay tuned for future updates.

You didn't ask me but ... your post sort of provides a nice platform for which one can rant and bitch about this stupid p.o.s. ... 

Which it is to me... 

There are three issues with it that are bugging me - 

1  ... the 'synoptic canvas,' which includes three metrics in itself:   orientation of r-wave construction and d(morphology); timing of individual impulses - hugely also modified by the former; speed of the flow.   The bold there is key for me ... I'm waiting to see/giving the flow a chance to change - so far...I am not seeing that, but there is plenty of time for that with 6 days of lead..granted.  But the speed of the flow is detriment, as is... As is also the timing ... which we have discussed the 'buck-shot' Pac in a flat flow causing wave spacing issues .. that is also not really resolving very well for me. 

2 ... the heights in the deep south... GOM/Florida .. off the SE Coast are running hot and this appears to be anchored at hemispheric scales.. In other words, there's not merely a deep wave in TX building those heights from latent heat flop ... the hgts are high prior to and during these waves ejecting and gliding overtop like rocks skipping off a pond.  Even if d(morphology) - delta pattern/change, were to catch up here and start effecting more amplitude/positive/wave interference ... that factor would then "emerge" as a shearing mitigator.  The 00z ICON solution shows this without even having .. the entire positive vorticity field is pulled and stretched into a 'continental ribbon' - if you will ... looks like a parade streamer. That is the flow speeding up in tandem and "absorbing" the S/W wind mechanics... that's what that is... ( I call this the Miami Rule ) ... It's not an absolute neggie wave interference...  The narrowing of the storm structure and the speed up over the last 4 or so cycles of models ... smacks as related to that.. but it's hard to separate that from just a having a firehose hemisphere anyway - 

3 ... that high pressure up there - assuming it is more correctly handled... it is not being assessed as a BL inhibitor/magnitude there in at this range.  No way... If that high is right..and this thing comes off the MA at that polarward angle and speed and size... it will hygroscopic annihilate a flat middling faster mover.  

All these can certainly change in 6 days ...duh, but from where I am sitting... this looked this way yesterday frankly, and seeing these models "shrink" the storm size and speed it up/progressive ... fits better for now. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

53 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’ll be interested by Sunday pm if this looks solid . . Haven’t looked at models Other than a few posts Here. It’s got a ways 

Sunday looks like a nice day to get outside .

Pattern does look intriguing after Monday 

Hopefully by Sunday the models haven’t moved towards Tippy’s fast flow regime dominance,  making this a weaker slightly more progressive system that gets shunted SE by a pressing Quebec High.  There would be a pedestrian traffic jam of Tobin Bridge jumpers if we are looking at “congrats South Coast”. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

NAO according to GEFS already trending towards neutral. Do not have EPS so not sure if it aligns. Hopefully it will go negative again.

PV should be re consolidating in January. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PV should be re consolidating in January. 

What a waste of winter

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

What a waste of winter

You avg 25" of snow. Winter time is naturally a waste there.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

What a waste of winter

Hope december pans, it's been a long long time since we've had a decent to good december, especially for the city.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Hopefully by Sunday the models haven’t moved towards Tippy’s fast flow regime dominance,  making this a weaker slightly more progressive system that gets shunted SE by a pressing Quebec High.  There would be a pedestrian traffic jam of Tobin Bridge jumpers if we are looking at “congrats South Coast”. 

I favor that, as well. I'm fine with some snow, but I wouldn't expect 1'+.

[Damage In Tolland]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, not great lol

 

The Eastern Mass Weather snowfall forecast for the intense system that traversed the region yesterday was fair, as it was was slightly too high in general across the area. The storm trended even further west than we had anticipated that it would, which entailed warmer air making headway into the area:

Forecast was Slightly Too Robust, Especially from I-95 Points North and West

 

We at e Mass Wx

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What a waste of winter

Chill, you've gotten 4,335" since start of records. No need to be greedy.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Idk about you guys,  but I enjoy the tracking and model watching sometimes even more than the damn events themselves. So yeah, I’m already set for 12z 

I do as well, Its almost a let down when the event arrives, As i look for the next one.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I do as well, Its almost a let down when the event arrives, As i look for the next one.

That empty, hollow feeling when the snow starts winding down and post-storm depression starts settling in. There's nothing on the horizon thats even remotely got a chance so you retreat to the 384hr GFS panels and then all of a sudden you realize, I've got a serious problem.

[dryslot]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

That empty, hollow feeling when the snow starts winding down and post-storm depression starts settling in. There's nothing on the horizon thats even remotely got a chance so you retreat to the 384hr GFS panels and then all of a sudden you realize, I've got a serious problem.

Its actually a sickness, And i have been prescribed Crown Royal to help cope with my addiction.