moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 18 minutes ago, SnowEMass said: I don’t know. That 8 is awfully close to my 6.7 She doesn't think so. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I feel people are going to have storm burnout on this one watching each and every model run every 6hrs and dissecting it for the next 5-6 days. Oh certainly, I just looked at the calendar and realized we're a week away. God help us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Thank you for your input. Appreciate it . I mean this far out, I won't worry about what the same model had 6 hrs ago. I just can't do that anymore. Sure when you are 3 days out maybe...but it looks similar to what I remember from 00z and that is all I can ask. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean this far out, I won't worry about what the same model had 6 hrs ago. I just can't do that anymore. Sure when you are 3 days out maybe...but it looks similar to what I remember from 00z and that is all I can ask. I was being sarcastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Overnight ensemble suites look great. Models are starting to graze the Islands with precipitation from the Monday wave exiting the Carolina's. Something for James to root for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I mean this far out, I won't worry about what the same model had 6 hrs ago. I just can't do that anymore. Sure when you are 3 days out maybe...but it looks similar to what I remember from 00z and that is all I can ask. For this far out, they are almost identical or all intents and purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: For this far out, they are almost identical or all intents and purposes. Where's my rain/snow line.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Where's my rain/snow line.... About 10 miles to your NW. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll take 6". You can jack. It's the Holiday Season after all and I'm in a "giving" mood. I always pegged Luke for a creepy corner sitter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 32 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 100% I'm already exhausted. See ya for 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I’ll be interested by Sunday pm if this looks solid . . Haven’t looked at models Other than a few posts Here. It’s got a ways Sunday looks like a nice day to get outside . Pattern does look intriguing after Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Idk about you guys, but I enjoy the tracking and model watching sometimes even more than the damn events themselves. So yeah, I’m already set for 12z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 3 hours ago, DotRat_Wx said: You have to be bullish looking at these ensemble runs. I could care less about the individual op runs at this stage. Credit to guys like Ray etc who really called their shot with this pattern. Truly impressive. Glad the ideas for December seem to largely be working out, save for the EPO.....but I hope I''m wrong later in January and through February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I always pegged Luke for a creepy corner sitter... I didn't even see that. You sick bastard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I’d prefer not to have to chase this one, but if there’s a foot forecasted in less than a 7 hour drive count me in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Idk about you guys, but I enjoy the tracking and model watching sometimes even more than the damn events themselves. So yeah, I’m already set for 12z Yea, same here, but the key is to not clog up the thread with reactionary BS on a storm 6 days out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I didn't even see that. You sick bastard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, same here, but the key is to not clog up the thread with reactionary BS on a storm 6 days out. Yeah that’s amateur stuff, but we all gotta admit when we first got hooked on this hobby we did the same thing lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I’d prefer not to have to chase this one, but if there’s a foot forecasted in less than a 7 hour drive count me in. I wonder if I have a half brother 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 11/23/2020 at 9:28 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Early signs are that that the PNA may begin the month a bit more favorable than expected.. There is also some support for perhaps some subtle disruptions of the PV during the month, which would be congruent with what was expected during the month of December. I do not expect the early month PNA to bare much if any fruit for the coast, as climo is relatively hostile and Canada is still largely void of cold. After about the 10th. cold reservoir be more replenished and climo will be less adversarial. I like the chances for a white xmas across a lot of the region....especially pike points north and outside of rt 128. December 2020 Outlook The polar vortex is likely going to begin the season quite consolidated near the pole during the month of November. However, the polar domain should become slightly less hostile to the development of periodic higher heights during the month of December, which may bring the AO and NAO closer to neutral, as dictated by previously referenced la nina climatology. This is when the more canonical, eastern pacific la nina regime will try to flex its muscle. Note the Aleutian high displaced to the northwest, and protruding poleward. The greatest positive height anomalies will likely be biased over the Aleutians, and to the east of Greenland, perhaps similar to the Ural blocking of October. This does not mean to imply excessive blocking for the period, which is not constituted by higher Ural heights, but more likely at least some transient periods of positive heights at higher latitudes. Alaska should also predominately feature some higher heights, especially across the western portion. There should be continuous RNA, so there is warmer bust potential should the vortex remain more consolidated than forecast. December Forecast H5 Composite: December Forecast Temperature Composite: There has only been one winter (DM) month, March 2018, that has averaged a negative NAO since February and March 2013. It is postulated that there is a high likelihood that we will add to that list this season. Most likely in December, but possibly March or even both. The month of December should average 1-2 degrees below normal for northern New England, near normal to a degree above normal for central southern New England, and 1-2 degrees above normal from north to south near New York City points southward into the mid atlantic. Cold will dump over the high plains and bleed eastward. December Forecast Precipitation Composite: It should be an active period marked by above average precipitation, especially for points north of Washington, DC. Primary modes of cyclogenesis include Alberta clippers, southwest flow events, and Miller B redevelopers, the latter of which especially prevalent during periods of negative NAO. New England should be favored for snowfall, especially central and northern parts of the region. The mid atlantic will need breaks in the RNA to coincide with negative NAO flex for significant snowfall, which is not exceedingly likely, but possible. A White Christmas is more probably than climatology would suggest this season. While the month is likely to average a negative NAO in the mean, this is not meant to imply that excessive blocking will reside for the entirety of the month. This is aging fairly decently, especially considering how things looked when I released it...one minor knock is that I may not have factored in the neg NAO enough in terms of where the main axis of monthly snowfall sets up, which means the northern mid atl may not be left out entirely, regardless of the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 30 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Overnight ensemble suites look great. Models are starting to graze the Islands with precipitation from the Monday wave exiting the Carolina's. Something for James to root for. James received an early Christmas gift......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 What is a corner sitter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 10 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The WCB was intense. Picked up like 10” in 3 hours that morning. Ended up with 14”. Kind of a letdown though how in and out it was. Then the sleet and mood flakes for the rest of the day. Most forecasts had Danbury for 18-24” so when you ‘fall short’ with 14” it never sits well. NWCT had some 20” amounts and then west into NY is where it really piled up with 30-40”. I just read this. And yes i can confirm NWS Zones had 18-24 the night before...lots a huge amounts from local stations, i went pretty conservative and still busted high. We changed over to heavy sleet and snow, some of the heaviest ive seen by 10am and it was supposed to snow all day. I was definitely dissapointed with 9.9 on a 12-20 forecast from myself and NWS 18-24. Could have been worse though, you could have been expected warning amounts and ended up with 2" in KGON. Last minute bumps NW FTL. It was still a great season though and we did have a big boy 10-18 statewide the month before with lots of TSSN. Jan had a nice daytime blizzard as well. Fyi.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What is a corner sitter? "Don't touch me...I just want to watch....don't look at me, I will look at you". I will be over there in that chair, in the corner. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: I just read this. And yes i can confirm NWS Zones had 18-24 the night before...lots a huge amounts from local stations, i went pretty conservative and still busted high. We changed over to heavy sleet and snow, some of the heaviest ive seen by 10am and it was supposed to snow all day. I was definitely dissapointed with 9.9 on a 12-20 forecast from myself and NWS 18-24. Could have been worse though, you could have been expected warning amounts and ended up with 2" in KGON. Last minute bumps NW FTL. It was still a great season though and we did have a big boy 10-18 statewide the month before with lots of TSSN. Jan had a nice daytime blizzard as well. Fyi.. That storm kept inching closer and closer. I remember thinking no way were we getting those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: "Don't touch me...I just want to watch....don't look at me, I will look at you".... lol...geezus. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: That storm kept inching closer and closer. I remember thinking no way were we getting those amounts. me too unfortunately..NYC busted really bad looking at it now, they had a 17" FX from the NWS. They only picked up 7.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Glad the ideas for December seem to largely be working out, save for the EPO.....but I hope I''m wrong later in January and through February. Yea, we hope this stretch ‘isn’t it’ and more will come. We’ll be happy if you’re JF call is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: me too unfortunately..NYC busted really bad looking at it now, they had a 17" FX from the NWS. They only picked up 7.6. I forget how my forecast did in that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, we hope this stretch ‘isn’t it’ and more will come. We’ll be happy if you’re JF call is wrong. I'm not super-negative on January...I think it will back and forth, more hostile as we go along....February is awful, I think....but expect some mid atl event(s). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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