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December 2020 Discussion

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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Ginx snewx
Ginx snewx

Don that is absolutely the worst.   A week ago that easily could have been my fate. Instead tonight I got to spend time with my grand and great grandkids. God bless you and Merry Christmas 

DTWXRISK
DTWXRISK

I see you are still lying about  your snow totals  

dendrite
dendrite

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

As long as the pig doesn’t return we would have our chances even if the ridge retros into AK. 

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The area near and NE of Hudson Bay as actually improved on guidance. 

Lot of weakness in the NAO regions...esp back toward N Quebec and Hudson. That’s good. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

As long as the pig doesn’t return we would have our chances even if the ridge retros into AK. 

 

Lot of weakness in the NAO regions...esp back toward N Quebec and Hudson. That’s good. 

Yeah maybe there’s a chance of NAO ridging there. Ensembles will mute it this far out, but signal is there for now. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

And there's or boy! Gotta love his pessimism. Lol

He’s usually a complete weenie optimist that goes into wishcast mode in winter. I think he’s trying the reverse psychology thing this year after last year’s dud. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

None of the above.

I’ve been worried about an awful winter and the last few days of modelology admittedly held some promise for at least a chance of a cold enough pattern for a week or so for snow before more Pac puke. I’m just very very worried . I’ve been thinking in back of mind we’d see modeling revert back to the awful look . 

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

None of the above.

I’ve been worried about an awful winter and the last few days of modelology admittedly held some promise for at least a chance of a cold enough pattern for a week or so for snow before more Pac puke. I’m just very very worried . I’ve been thinking in back of mind we’d see modeling revert back to the awful look . 

Your like a chick w baggage . Can’t let the snow and hope in, for fear of the pig returning and breaking your heart .

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

And there's or boy! Gotta love his pessimism. Lol

As I explained a couple days ago, it’s a Phishing expedition.   He said those things, so that Will and Scott or somebody who really knows what they’re looking at, will chime in and explain what is really happening, and when they do that(as they just did over the past page), he privately exhales and relaxes. 
 

It’s easy to poo poo everything as he has been doing lately, then when one thing changes, he can claim he was right all along.  It’s just a silly game he plays all the time here.  He’s a Spin-Dr plain and simple.  
 

it’s just better to ignore 99% of it. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

None of the above.

I’ve been worried about an awful winter and the last few days of modelology admittedly held some promise for at least a chance of a cold enough pattern for a week or so for snow before more Pac puke. I’m just very very worried . I’ve been thinking in back of mind we’d see modeling revert back to the awful look . 

A ridge retrograding from the PNA region into AK wouldn’t return PAC puke to the CONUS. It would actually encourage more of an Arctic plunge....it just increases the chance that a system could cut if the ridge is further west like that. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A ridge retrograding from the PNA region into AK wouldn’t return PAC puke to the CONUS. It would actually encourage more of an Arctic plunge....it just increases the chance that a system could cut if the ridge is further west like that. 

Yes exactly the concern and reason to worry . I have faith in you guys . Just my own concerns 

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Still good though. I just think as that trough retros west the ridging will too.  Not trying to go poo poo on y’all. 

 You’re definitely correct. It’s starting the fade the Aleutian low as hgts back into Ak. That could be good (see GEFS geps) or its a bit muted like the eps. 
 

Just need to see if it goes further west into the Aleutians which would be standard Niña. This might be a response from the mjo getting into p5/6

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We’ve probably had enuf helpings of Winter wolf passive aggressive posts for the day 

Nothing passive/aggressive about it, I was being civil. And Just stating the facts and keeping it real.   But being Thanksgiving, we’ll end it there.  Happy thanksgiving Pike.  

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A ridge retrograding from the PNA region into AK wouldn’t return PAC puke to the CONUS. It would actually encourage more of an Arctic plunge....it just increases the chance that a system could cut if the ridge is further west like that. 

A d that is where the Atlantic side could help yes?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Don't forget, there rarely is such thing as a persistent '14-'15 type pattern. Many times, our pattern are sort of in between good and garbage. The reasons why sometimes these break right (like Dec 07 for instance) is because of some subtle, but notable distinctions in where features like troughs and ridges are placed.

So it doesn't do a lot of good when you see something not 100% perfect and get all bent out of shape. I don't see anything wrong as a whole on the EPS, especially by December standards. Looking forward to a change.

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted

Happy Thanksgiving all. I hope this day helps you guys reflect on kindness, compassion, and just love the neighbor. I do like to come here to talk about the weather, but man.. You guys love to one up eachother on who is this and who is that. Who is passive aggressive, who is not. I started getting sucked into y'alls banter, but no mo3te for me. Just enjoy the day and realize why we need to start respecting one another. Now.. Back to the weather.

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't forget, there rarely is such thing as a persistent '14-'15 type pattern. Many times, our pattern are sort of in between good and garbage. The reasons why sometimes these break right (like Dec 07 for instance) is because of some subtle, but notable distinctions in where features like troughs and ridges are placed.

So it doesn't do a lot of good when you see something not 100% perfect and get all bent out of shape. I don't see anything wrong as a whole on the EPS, especially by December standards. Looking forward to a change.

I think our best shot is when the pna ridge starts to move west. It will allow colder air into Canada and the southeast ridge will still be a bay, at least at first. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't forget, there rarely is such thing as a persistent '14-'15 type pattern. Many times, our pattern are sort of in between good and garbage. The reasons why sometimes these break right (like Dec 07 for instance) is because of some subtle, but notable distinctions in where features like troughs and ridges are placed.

So it doesn't do a lot of good when you see something not 100% perfect and get all bent out of shape. I don't see anything wrong as a whole on the EPS, especially by December standards. Looking forward to a change.

As long as there is no pig, I’m happy with the look. Dec 2008 had a big Aleutian ridge too and -PNA. Both ‘07 and ‘08 did.  

It doesn’t look like the PNA is going to go negative anytime soon though. Maybe just not as ragingly positive. We’ll see if it starts to revert to more typical Nina -PNA toward later December. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

As long as there is no pig, I’m happy with the look. Dec 2008 had a big Aleutian ridge too and -PNA. Both ‘07 and ‘08 did.  

It doesn’t look like the PNA is going to go negative anytime soon though. Maybe just not as ragingly positive. We’ll see if it starts to revert to more typical Nina -PNA toward later December. 

Yeah exactly. Doesn’t have to be a pristine -NAO/+PNA etc. Looking forward to the change. 

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