Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 That 00z GFS operational surface depiction is NOT struggling to get ice to N NJ and CT/RI ... Folks appear needing/seeking idealized model-positioning of features, but you're rarely going to get that in guidance... Doesn't work that way - and there are numerous ways to get a cold wedged or a "tuck jet" into position, early mid or late system gestation... The only real silver bullet synoptic arrangement there is, is having +PP N whilst a barographic layout featuring clear frontal position W -E S of HFD/PVD either prior to go live time or during for that matter. If you see that... Cold prevails. If waiting on model cycles for perfect 'high farther south', or 'cold front sufficiently cleared the area' first? You're waiting indefinitely ... You just need the tuck jet set up, ...nothing else. Those features, as were in that run cycle .. were all three, a-prior, education, and climo precedenced for generating that phenomenon, and whatever QPF pretty artistry is out there... toss anything that isn't ice and mix between Rt 2/Pike and snow and bee-bees N of that to however distance... and icing outside of urban island or sea shores down to EWR and interior/E of TTN S of the industrial park. Now... of course ... all this is rendered moot if it is proven to be true ... Scott's need to have every possible model since the invention of Lego's proves the only way to get to a wintry solution before the above can even take place... just sayin' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Ok nice to see GEFS start going where I think this is headed week 2. Retro block with responding cold air flow into the NE and a responding ridge in the west. First hint. Hope it lasts 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 How is the latest Euro for up here? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: How is the latest Euro for up here? EPS torch but before Nyd watch that Mon Tuesday system in your hood, surprise 3 to 6? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ok nice to see GEFS start going where I think this is headed week 2. Retro block with responding cold air flow into the NE and a responding ridge in the west. First hint. Hope it lasts These 384 maps I am seeing everywhere are worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: How is the latest Euro for up here? Still crap (ensembles...06z operational doesn’t go out far enough)...though it’s slowly trending the right way. Problem on the euro is it keeps the energy pretty consolidated in the southern stream and then phases with another shortwave coming in behind it. It’s slow and consolidated compared to other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: How is the latest Euro for up here? Rain unless you live in Northern Maine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, PhineasC said: How is the latest Euro for up here? Ens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hard to go bullish on wintry wx until euro looks better. Most other guidance is coming on board though (Ukie/GFS/GGEM) with icing to at least interior CNE if not northern SNE. Problem is the euro is still holding a lot of that energy back and consolidating it allowing the storm to wind up to the west after the northern stream clears out. May or may not be its old bias in effect...but we’ll see. I was going to just make this comment after going thru the last few pages when you posted that Euro H5 map that it looked like the Euro playing into its bias of hanging back the energy SW as the northern stream s/w runs out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 A majority are rainers on the EPS but you can still see quite a few wintry scenarios too mixed in. The spread is large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Still shitty for the ski areas and snow mobile trails up there. We need a real good blitz and then 2 days of upslope to really build that base. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You just seem like a pro snow person who doesn't like to hear otherwise. Christmas was great, tuned out the funeral in here. Somebody piss in your eggnog? All i see is some in here discussing the possibilities rather then closing the blinds on another full blown cutter to Hudson Bay, The air mass once again is marginal but i mentioned it yesterday as some of these OP models had a flatter look that this could end up being a SWFE if it works out, Going to need to continue to see more changes and ensembles get onboard. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Somebody piss in your eggnog? All i see is some in here discussing the possibilities rather then closing the blinds on another full blown cutter to Hudson Bay, The air mass once again is marginal but i mentioned it yesterday as some of these OP models had a flatter look that this could end up being a SWFE if it works out, Going to need to continue to see more changes and ensembles get onboard. Just keeping it real. Hopefully cold and snow for you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Just keeping it real. Hopefully cold and snow for you. I hear you, I'm not fully onboard and hate rooting for weaker scenarios for Ice/Snow, It would be a whole lot better if we could get the whole trough further east with a low riding up it with the region being on the west of its track but not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: I hear you, I'm not fully onboard and hate rooting for weaker scenarios for Ice/Snow, It would be a whole lot better if we could get the whole trough further east with a low riding up it with the region being on the west of its track but not likely. You guys have a shot of some sort of wintry mix, especially on the front end. JMHO, but not much hope here. Hopefully I'm wrong. I don't buy the GFS and the ability to get good cold in here prior to precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You guys have a shot of some sort of wintry mix, especially on the front end. JMHO, but not much hope here. Hopefully I'm wrong. I don't buy the GFS and the ability to get good cold in here prior to precip. The air mass is just real marginal so i don't know how far south it can go, If i was further north up here i would feel much better about it, Whats worse then no snow right now is no sustained cold and no ice on most bodies of water safe enough to travel on if we had snow, That's going to be the dangerous part once it does snow if there are just a few inches of ice with snow on top, Already had someone sink a sled up here last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: The air mass is just real marginal so i don't know how far south it can go, If i was further north up here i would feel much better about it, Whats worse then no snow right now is no sustained cold and no ice on most bodies of water safe enough to travel on if we had snow, That's going to be the dangerous part once it does snow if there are just a few inches of ice with snow on top, Already had someone sink a sled up here last week. I wish there was ice and snow up there. It would give some freedom to do some outdoor winter fun. Third year in a row of a pork job for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I wish there was ice and snow up there. It would give some freedom to do some outdoor winter fun. Third year in a row of a pork job for this time of year. Yeah, By now were usually ready to go, There will be no ice fishing on Jan 1 this year on any lakes, Maybe a few small ponds still may have some, Before the last cutter last week, Folks were out ice fishing as i sell bags to all the bait dealers up here and sales were up as its strictly seasonal on them for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 “It’s not happening James” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 The 12z Nam @H5 was still positively tilted @hr 84 with the northern stream s/w out ahead just like the other op models have been showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 lol. What is going on in here? When someone melts on Scooter for having a melt is it truly considered a melt? People are passionate. Many here root for snowy winter scenarios. Nothing wrong with that. Scott is being sensible and cautious, Which makes sense. He is right about people getting overly amped up about certain outlooks only for it to seemingly ruin their day when it doesn't work out. I should talk, as I have been one of the biggest melt-downers in the past, as the snow blower death post has shown. Take it in stride, folks. Take it in stride. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: The 12z Nam @H5 was still positively tilted @hr 84 with the northern stream s/w out ahead just like the other op models have been showing. As we know this model is helpful in sniffing out certain macro level trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Pope is here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: As we know this model is helpful in sniffing out certain macro level trends It looks to be aligning with what some of the others have is all right now, But yeah, It has sniffed out some events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Pope is here! Served his penance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Served his penance? He shall preach rains to Maine’s with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: He shall preach rains to Maine’s with this one He may be more right then wrong this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He shall preach rains to Maine’s with this one Where’s Motheater...? Lol. He totally flipped out Friday. The melt to end all Melts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Where’s Motheater...? Lol. He totally flipped out Friday. The melt to end all Melts. And on such a holy day too. Safe to say he’s left the board. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 No one in here is completely objective, obviously. Don't have to delve deeply into any philosophy to see that no human being observing "reality" truly is. We're all perceiving, subsequently then evincing those perceptions along some tolerated spectrum of lesser lucidity. Having mused that, ... this engagement ? Ho my ... it has less to do with "analysis" of weather - but weather is just vehicle for affixing drama .. getting a 'kick' high - and when it is model dependent... It's not real.. artificial. ... short of experiencing that high, this becomes 'group support' - which is the real destination. Perhaps in some way that can be construed as "an analyst" - lol. I see where Scott's coming from in that arena. We've just been dealt a pretty significant 'personal' blow as winter Currier&Ives enthusiasts. He's smart ... he sets his coffee down and looks at some shit from over night and the first thing that pops to mind is, 'oh god here we go' and it pisses him off... Why? Not because someone spiked his 'Nog with vinegar - it's because it's a collective "soft" delusion ... People/J.Q. User and the tenor demos the delusion is being formulated, ...given time, solidification of that delusion into thinking it is real... Chris' pot-shot said it perfectly in snark the other day - and it was funny, because it was essentially true: '...people in here are more interested in a D7 storm on the models than they are seeing snow in air' This was never intended to be what/why these environmental prognostic tools were ever invented - it's an emergent aspect of the Internet era. I mean ..try to imagine your world 20 years ago, if you are old enough to have been cognizant of pre-Internet. But I digress - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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