CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 EPS and Para GFS are a furnace. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 We’ve got an icestorm on the way 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ve got an icestorm on the way Sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sell. 9 minutes ago, wdrag said: 12/27 620AM Topic Update. Evolution of this topic continues as 12/29 is gone (except a few I-84 snow showers) . This includes dropping graphics for 12/29 as 12/21ish modeling completely missed this non-event for our area. New graphics will be added Monday morning as modeling consensus grows for 12/31-1/2. This system for 12/31 and especially Jan 1-2 is trending toward broad high impacts, ranging from at least a period of advisory or warning ice and possibly advisory snow for the I84 corridor (high terrain above 1000 feet especially), to a multiple slow response river flood response (minor to moderate flood stages in our NYC forum), depending on new qpf (not including any remaining snowmelt) and how much of that qpf is ice and remains ice through Jan 2. In my mind this is complex. Scenario is a weak northern stream short wave passage on the 31st dragging a cold front through the NYC forum accompanied by rain, (possibly a little snow or ice I84 high terrain). It's possible NY eve celebrations will be precip free for a few hours? Meanwhile the southern stream short wave may split into two pieces, leaving something behind for the 3rd, but of little or no impact here. It's the preceding newd lift out of the Gulf States short wave that is going to be a potential high impact player here on the first and second of January. How this plays out is uncertain but clearly the 00z/27 GFS and EC op have trended colder while the run to run inconsistency of the UK and ICON continues. In essence though...it appears to me that a warm front to our south will provide the necessary lift with a southerly jet of 50kt (PWAT 1") impinging on it, to dump heavy qpf on a large part of the NYC forum, on the order of 1-3". I am tending to lean widespread heavier than 1.5". That front may eventually lift north of LI/I80 but I think there is a chance of an occlusion and waves of low pressure moving out to the s of LI. That leaves potential for heavy icing parts of I84. So, tbd, if this read is generally reasonable but worthy of comment-updates. Wind: 50+MPH gusts...still possible for LI/NJ but less likely. Have left the Topic TAGS as is, but updated the topic headline. Basically done w this for 24 hours. Thank you for your updates-impressions of the modeling. I know this differs from the GFS parallel (not necessarily a desired model upgrade yet, in my mind, especially if it misses this qpf event down here-remains to be seen but I'm concerned about consistently better GFS V16 performance vs the operational V 15). Ice, snow and wind support for my expectations above are derived from 00z/27 GEFS probs and operational model trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Well this is a horse of a different color. Colder yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Until the EPS comes on board, I don't really buy it. For SNE anyways. NNE has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 6 hours ago, PhineasC said: Ukie looks like it would be really nice based on the precip maps at least. Ukie weenie map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 At least it looks like the massive cutter idea is losing traction. That’s most important. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Yeah hopefully it’s a cold enough rain to preserve my piles. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: At least it looks like the massive cutter idea is losing traction. That’s most important. Yep in typical CAD situations Euro is last to the show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: Yeah hopefully it’s a cold enough rain to preserve my piles. lol This got interesting quickly for your area. First 35 then epic melt to potentially a damaging ice scenario. Boy what a run of not boring weather that would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 You want wintry precip, you want to root for a weak primary(>1000mb) over the GL. Allows for a strung out system that won’t scour out any cold that bleeds south from that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yep in typical CAD situations Euro is last to the show It's usually one of the best for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 GEFS are warm too. I dunno, some of you have gotten delusional. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: This got interesting quickly for your area. First 35 then epic melt to potentially a damaging ice scenario. Boy what a run of not boring weather that would be. Don’t need the ice for multiple reasons. Def not boring lately...I’ll give you that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: This got interesting quickly for your area. First 35 then epic melt to potentially a damaging ice scenario. Boy what a run of not boring weather that would be. I’m all in for interior SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m all in for interior SNE This should be your 6th or 7th ice storm call. Lets see how it shakes out. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Don’t need the ice for multiple reasons. Def not boring lately...I’ll give you that. Winter in CAD city, I mean you had to know when you bought the place that congrats Dendrites would fly over and over lol. Just kidding ice sucks but definitely not boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS are warm too. I dunno, some of you have gotten delusional. Slowly he turned step by step.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's usually one of the best for that. Yea once it latches on, day 5 plus has been a huge issue since the upgrade. Under that, ride that horse Daddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Big ice is hard to do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea once it latches on, day 5 plus has been a huge issue since the upgrade. Under that, ride that horse Daddy So we just run with the models we trash the most? I would highly advise not getting excited in CNE or SNE right now. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Big ice is hard to do I think you’d want to see that high a bit further S. It’s pretty strong as modeled right now. Trends to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This should be your 6th or 7th ice storm call. Lets see how it shakes out. Haven’t called for one this winter. Sooner or later you’ll use something other than EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Haven’t called for one this winter. Sooner or later you’ll use something other than EPS Surprised you’re using the old FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Haven’t called for one this winter. Sooner or later you’ll use something other than EPS Best out there. We science. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Surprised you’re using the old FV3. Whatever fits the agenda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So we just run with the models we trash the most? I would highly advise not getting excited in CNE or SNE right now. JMHO. Who said anything at all about that? I have never seen someone get so defensive when people talk about models and alternative outputs. Chill 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 YTD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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