MJO812 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Were heading to a SWFE. Looks like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, The Graupler said: Ok sure ! It is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 If you say so Hoss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Great run for northern half of NE. Past few runs have been moving in that direction. I hope the trend continues. I love the lagging and separation of the s/w deep down in TX from the northern stream day 4.5. But I'd like to see a little less phasing with the follow up trof swinging through the mountain west right behind it. I still think this is probably a Lakes cutter. But this makes it slightly more interesting to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 11 minutes ago, PhineasC said: At least not a cutter. Hard to buy the GFS until the CMC and Euro stop showing disasters. Yeah I here you. Thing is… Each model is playing into their own biases right now which is typical of this range right in the middle range right there. The GFS is probably gonna be the first one to latch onto splitting the streams busting open affairs and turning it into a shred mess like this while the euro and Gspot tend to curve all flows in that range, Which tends them to hold these things together longer lifting bombs up into confluence Eu and G hold on too long GFS may bust open the ravioli too quick The head game is at either could be right or somewhere in between usually 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 A big icer would be a great way to ring in the new year and leave 2020 behind us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Pretty sure CMC would be a snowstorm for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Pretty sure CMC would be a snowstorm for NNE. Get the GEFS and the EPS ensembles on board, The 12z op Euro made a move to a flatter solution but its not going to make shifts, It will be a slower death towards something better if at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Were heading to a SWFE. We’ll see.... swfe usually dump a decent burst of snow here before mix.... but there isn’t much cold air to work with here at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Keep in mind ... The CMC has a boundary layer warm biases at that range. Synoptically that’s going to have a 30 to 35 knot tuck jet funneling East of the White Mountains clear to Hartford Connecticut and that set up no question that’s all ice in the interior there ...as far as Northern New England yeah probably snow and bullets mixed in the northern 1/4 of that shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 I’m sure the Euro will pinch one off in my cornflakes at 1:00 AM. Any word on second best crazy uncle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We’ll see.... swfe usually dump a decent burst of snow here before mix.... but there isn’t much cold air to work with here at all. It may be a tougher task down your way but we are getting into the time frame here where we can score on a marginal air mass.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 The problem with the 0z GFS is that after the likely near miss at day 6 there's nothing in the hopper for the rest of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I’m sure the Euro will pinch one off in my cornflakes at 1:00 AM. Any word on second best crazy uncle? Looking at the sideways france UKMO maps, It looks SWFE'ish at hr 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looking at the sideways france UKMO maps, It looks SWFE'ish at hr 144. NAO is doing its dirty work I wonder if this will trend even flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Gefs looks like a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs looks like a mess Won’t be decided for another day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Ukie looks like it would be really nice based on the precip maps at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 The indices didn't support another huge cutter like Xmas, not shocked at all this is trending towards a SWFE. Plenty more time for trends too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Euro following suit it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said: Euro following suit it looks like. Yep euro has followed suit Very interesting trends and not shocking given the indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Yep, big change by the Euro. Comparing 12z to 00z is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 GFS led the way with this big shift so far. Still tons of time to go but at least it’s worth tracking this thing again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: GFS led the way with this big shift so far. Still tons of time to go but at least it’s worth tracking this thing again. Watch for more south trends. Euro plows the low into the low. Not going to happen like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2020 Author Share Posted December 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Watch for more south trends. Euro plows the low into the low. Not going to happen like that. I can assure you that the low will not plow into itself. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 I knew those runs the other day didn’t make any sense. Glad to see some much better trends on the latest guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Pretty drastic differences between the two 6z GFS’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Like a 7” difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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