December 2020 Discussion

[kdxken]

  On 12/27/2020 at 12:46 AM, Baroclinic Zone said:

It’s quite sad to see people lose it over something that falls from rather sky.

best of both worlds right now.  No snowpack and above normal snowfall.

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Sunny and dry? Good. Cloudy and dry? Fine. Cold and dry? Not a problem. Enough with the f****** rain.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/27/2020 at 12:58 AM, Lava Rock said:

Lol, I can't remember the weather last week some times. Four times over so many years doesn't mean much to me. Still seems like a gamble

 

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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To name a few could go on and on and not just winter either. There is value for long lead times. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/27/2020 at 12:58 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Well for all you doomers by next week hindsight will in fact be 2020

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I think this whooshed a lot of people, hopefully our staff Eye Dr caught it

[powderfreak]

  On 12/26/2020 at 11:59 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Even in Holliston I have 17” for the month with 15 days of snow cover so far. Both solidly above climo. 

 

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I mean, those are the two metrics that matter to most snow lovers.  Total inches that fall from the sky in a given period, and number of days they don't have to look at grass.  Compare it to normal and you have your answer.

There are some that regardless of numbers compared to climo, seem to melt  if god forbid someone near them has a better experience.  The jackpot syndrome. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/27/2020 at 1:34 AM, powderfreak said:

I mean, those are the two metrics that matter to most snow lovers.  Total inches that fall from the sky in a given period, and number of days they don't have to look at grass.  Compare it to normal and you have your answer.

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Yeah, it's just the timing of the epic grinch distorts the "feeling" of it. But I personally enjoyed Xmas eve a ton...it had the reggae weekend vibe at the ski resorts....we were burning the firepit outside with temps near 50F and deep snow cover. My son making and then destroying a snowman, lol. 

Xmas day itself though was a total bummer. No denying that. 2017 this was not.

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/27/2020 at 1:03 AM, weathafella said:

18z EPS is hideous for ALL of New England. NYE/NYD

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Tossed 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/26/2020 at 11:41 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Meh no way

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Odds are at least one major storm in January will work out...I'm not calling for a January shut out. I just feel like we underachieved in December a little bit, and need to try to make up for it in January.

Name all of the great la nina Februarys......short list.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/27/2020 at 1:03 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Please elaborate...thanks.

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I’ve just noticed you don’t like to revert or change your winter forecast month to month . It’s issued in Oct and if the month change , you like to stick with the initial forecast and tend to not think models are correct if they are different from your ideas . I. E . Instead of adapting and massaging to fit how things change, you stay the course it regardless. I understand why, but sometimes it needs adapting. Again.. just how I view it. Right or wrong 

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/27/2020 at 1:39 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, it's just the timing of the epic grinch distorts the "feeling" of it. But I personally enjoyed Xmas eve a ton...it had the reggae weekend vibe at the ski resorts....we were burning the firepit outside with temps near 50F and deep snow cover. My son making and then destroying a snowman, lol. 

Xmas day itself though was a total bummer. No denying that. 2017 this was not.

 

 

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Yeah I enjoyed Christmas Eve as well. Similar vibe. At least that aspect of Christmas was enjoyable. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/27/2020 at 1:39 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, it's just the timing of the epic grinch distorts the "feeling" of it. But I personally enjoyed Xmas eve a ton...it had the reggae weekend vibe at the ski resorts....we were burning the firepit outside with temps near 50F and deep snow cover. My son making and then destroying a snowman, lol. 

Xmas day itself though was a total bummer. No denying that. 2017 this was not.

 

 

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Yea Christmas eve totally rocked outside. Cranking tunes was a great night 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/27/2020 at 1:43 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve just noticed you don’t like to revert or change your winter directs month to month . It’s issued in Oct and if the minus change , you like to stick with the initial forecast and tend to not think models are correct if they are different from your ideas . I. E . Instead of adapting and massaging to fit how things change, you stay the course it regardless. I understand why, but sometimes it needs adapting. Again.. just how I view it. Right or wrong 

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Were you in a coma the past two seasons? I completely bailed by February on both.

I haven't seen a reason to deviate yet. All i missed was the PNA instead of RNA in December.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/27/2020 at 1:43 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Odds are at least one major storm in January will work out...I'm not calling for a January shut out. I just feel like we underachieved in December a little bit, and need to try to make up for it in January.

Name all of the great la nina Februarys......short list.

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Nina simna . Toss your nina Telleconnections as far as you can

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/27/2020 at 1:43 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve just noticed you don’t like to revert or change your winter directs month to month . It’s issued in Oct and if the minus change , you like to stick with the initial forecast and tend to not think models are correct if they are different from your ideas . I. E . Instead of adapting and massaging to fit how things change, you stay the course it regardless. I understand why, but sometimes it needs adapting. Again.. just how I view it. Right or wrong 

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I actually enjoy that forecast. Just put your balls out there and make the call. See what happens. 

[mreaves]

I can only speak for myself but “losing it” should be taken in context. The context being a board dedicated to the enjoyment of weather. If and when I lose it, it will be in the context of these discussions not the rest of my life. It’s like talking about your football team going into battle or saying your favorite player is a warrior. It’s not literal. Like I said, maybe it’s just me but I don’t look at a bad run of the 18Z suite and then go kick my dog and yell at my wife and kid. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/27/2020 at 1:45 AM, CoastalWx said:

I actually enjoy that forecast. Just put your balls out there and make the call. See what happens. 

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Its not like I don't acknowledge when it fails.....believe me, I will be the first to post that its wrong if Feb looks great.

[Heisy]

If you want hope. 18z para gfs has a strong follow up wave and is a snowstorm from dc to SNE lol

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/27/2020 at 1:44 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Nina simna . Toss your nina Telleconnections as far as you can

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You can say that about anything.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/27/2020 at 1:47 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its not like I don't acknowledge when it fails.....believe me, I will be the first to post that its wrong if Feb looks great.

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Yeah you're honest with that for sure.

[Heisy]

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/27/2020 at 1:44 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Were you in a coma the past two seasons? I completely bailed by February on both.

I haven't seen a reason to deviate yet. All i missed was the PNA instead of RNA in December.

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I’m not saying you had bad forecasts or anything. But January will be interesting. The one you used today doesn’t match modeling. Perhaps yours is right and modeling is wrong. We’ll find out soon enough 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/27/2020 at 1:49 AM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah you're honest with that for sure.

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Anyway, this is the December thread....I don't want to monopolize it with talk of my outlook.

I didn't bring it up.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/27/2020 at 1:45 AM, CoastalWx said:

I actually enjoy that forecast. Just put your balls out there and make the call. See what happens. 

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I do that with every one  of mine. I am calling icestorm interior SNE NYD

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/27/2020 at 1:50 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m not saying you had bad forecasts or anything. But January will be interesting. The one you used today doesn’t match modeling. Perhaps yours is right and modeling is wrong. We’ll find out soon enough 

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My last two were awful...I said it lol.

Keep in mind....go back and look at modeling when I started the December thread.

Anyway, its just a conversation starter when I post those to start threads....more for posterity.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/27/2020 at 1:53 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My last two were awful...I said it lol.

Keep in mind....go back and look at modeling when I started the December thread.

Anyway, its just a conversation starter when I post those to start threads....more for posterity.

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Well Dr Dews indulged

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/27/2020 at 12:47 AM, ORH_wxman said:

This was admittedly worse than most grinches. There was deep snow cover across a huge percentage of the posting subforum after a pretty big time storm on 12/16-17....those types of storms don’t grow on trees, especially first 3 weeks of December. 

Then the progged NAO blocking for late December started to look crappier in the days approaching the grinch storm, which caused us to lose 12/29 and then recently it looks worse in early January. So a lot of people are playing the “pattern pushed back so it’s bogus” card. Even if that isn’t really sound reasoning. 

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There has not been a worse screamer in any month in NE annals . Not even 96. Nothing ever wiped out snow to Quebec and the Canadian maritimes. This was the first screamer to ever accomplish that .

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/27/2020 at 1:55 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Well Dr Dews indulged

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He doesn't count....its like a vote of confidence for cold and snow from @MJO812

[ORH_wxman]

Good La Nina Februarys (at least off top of my head for interior SNE)....2001, 1996, 1975, 1972, 1956. You could technically say 2011 and 2006 were good, but they were pretty choppy. I guess 1996 might fit in that group too. 

Feb 1956 would be the bullseye we are shooting for though. Monster month. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I honestly thought we would squeeze out one more moderate event this month after the mid month deal. The second half of the month was pretty disappointing.

[78Blizzard]

  On 12/26/2020 at 11:55 PM, MJO812 said:

18z GFS  Para is consistent  with a coastal. This run hits us. 

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The 12z Para GFS looks like a burp run @ h5.  This 18z run is more like its previous several runs.  It's out 8 days, but who knows, the GFS had the grinch storm for more days than than that.  But cutters seem to have that long lead time.

Also, the para says the new year's storm is meh around here - not even a tenth of an inch.  But it will still be warm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/27/2020 at 2:03 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Good La Nina Februarys (at least off top of my head for interior SNE)....2001, 1996, 1975, 1972, 1956. You could technically say 2011 and 2006 were good, but they were pretty choppy. I guess 1996 might fit in that group too. 

Feb 1956 would be the bullseye we are shooting for though. Monster month. 

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I'll bet at least two of those were the worst DJF months of the respective seasons, though.

I know 1996 was....not sure about 2001.