Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Just now, alex said: I know the mood is awful but let's face it... Nobody has any clue what the weather will be like in a few weeks let alone February and March. No model, no human. I respect all the Mets (and non mets) in here but let's face it, nobody ever gets long range right - at least no more right than chance alone would dictate. 2 weeks ago I was told I'd have feet of snow on the ground right now. Nope, didn't happen. I would love to see some data that shows a different conclusion but it seems that anything beyond a week is no more right than the New York Times horoscope page. Disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: JB thinks a snowier pattern will begin the 2nd week of January Not just JB I realize he has a major bias toward cold and snow but Michael Ventrice also supports the view too. He is a more neutral Met or another follows what the models show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, alex said: I know the mood is awful but let's face it... Nobody has any clue what the weather will be like in a few weeks let alone February and March. No model, no human. I respect all the Mets (and non mets) in here but let's face it, nobody ever gets long range right - at least no more right than chance alone would dictate. 2 weeks ago I was told I'd have feet of snow on the ground right now. Nope, didn't happen. I would love to see some data that shows a different conclusion but it seems that anything beyond a week is no more right than the New York Times horoscope page. I agree and always have 100%. Beyond a couple weeks it's as good as a coin flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Does the 18z Euro give me snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Does the 18z Euro give me snow? Snow it shall not have fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 18z GFS Para is consistent with a coastal. This run hits us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wait....Laconia, NH is well over snowfall climo? That settles it...its been a great month. A lot of interior CT into MA is what I meant. Roughly 495 down to 84. Probably not as far east as you. It's good to put things in perspective too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Even in Holliston I have 17” for the month with 15 days of snow cover so far. Both solidly above climo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 18z GFS Para is consistent with a coastal. This run hits us. I still see the old 12/22 run in Tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, RDRY said: I still see the old 12/22 run in Tidbits. They haven't updated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 I have only had the one snow storm this year. Doesn’t really matter how far behind I am on the snow table, it’s all an even playing field again now. It’s like going into overtime in a basketball game. Doesn’t matter what came before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Even in Holliston I have 17” for the month with 15 days of snow cover so far. Both solidly above climo. Holliston sounds like one of those obscure place names Larry Cosgrove would use in a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Even in Holliston I have 17” for the month with 15 days of snow cover so far. Both solidly above climo. I swear some on here think they live at 2K in Stowe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Holliston sounds like one of those obscure place names Larry Cosgrove would use in a forecast. Lol it’s definitely a small random town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Holliston sounds like one of those obscure place names Larry Cosgrove would use in a forecast. Everytime he posts it I think of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I swear some on here think they live at 2K in Stowe Grinch storm broke a lot of people. Kind of ruined the vibe of the good start for many peeps...so I kind of get it. But that isn’t an excuse to start punting January. Especially when model guidance is all over the map...and these same models basically wanted to puke all over December too. Then they started getting optimistic, and then tried to pull the rug out again early in the month.... Remember all the panic of December not panning out after 12/5 disappointed some folks and they were complaining that the pig was coming back by 12/15 or 12/20? Lol...then we got a major snowstorm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 DisagreeCan you explain, as I tend to agree with alexSent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Grinch storm broke a lot of people. Kind of ruined the vibe of the good start for many peeps...so I kind of get it. But that isn’t an excuse to start punting January. Especially when model guidance is all over the map...and these same models basically wanted to puke all over December too. Then they started getting optimistic, and then tried to pull the rug out again early in the month.... Remember all the panic of December not panning out after 12/5 disappointed some folks and they were complaining that the pig was coming back by 12/15 or 12/20? Lol...then we got a major snowstorm. Happens every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I swear some on here think they live at 2K in Stowe It’s quite sad to see people lose it over something that falls from rather sky. best of both worlds right now. No snowpack and above normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 10 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Happens every year This was admittedly worse than most grinches. There was deep snow cover across a huge percentage of the posting subforum after a pretty big time storm on 12/16-17....those types of storms don’t grow on trees, especially first 3 weeks of December. Then the progged NAO blocking for late December started to look crappier in the days approaching the grinch storm, which caused us to lose 12/29 and then recently it looks worse in early January. So a lot of people are playing the “pattern pushed back so it’s bogus” card. Even if that isn’t really sound reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: This was admittedly worse than most grinches. There was deep snow cover across a huge percentage of the posting subforum after a pretty big time storm on 12/16-17....those types of storms don’t grow on trees, especially first 3 weeks of December. Then the progged NAO blocking for late December started to look crappier in the days approaching the grinch storm, which caused us to lose 12/29 and then recently it looks worse in early January. So a lot of people are playing the “pattern pushed back so it’s bogus” card. Even if that isn’t really sound reasoning. I get we are in a bad stretch, but seems early to punt winter. Hopefully we get some improvement around 2nd week of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 29 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Can you explain, as I tend to agree with alex Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk So were you around in Jan 11 Feb 13 Jan 15 March 18? We were touting an excellent snow pattern a month out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It’s quite sad to see people lose it over something that falls from rather sky. best of both worlds right now. No snowpack and above normal snowfall. A lot of people like myself enjoy winter. I find it rather depressing to have temps in the 40s and 50s with rain or hell even bare ground. There's nothing quite like a snowy landscape. And obviously for people like you and I, this is typically expected. What compounds it, is when people see nothing but a crappy pattern for winter enthusiasts, as far as we can go out with any sense of accuracy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Well for all you doomers by next week hindsight will in fact be 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 So were you around in Jan 11 Feb 13 Jan 15 March 18? We were touting an excellent snow pattern a month out! Lol, I can't remember the weather last week some times. Four times over so many years doesn't mean much to me. Still seems like a gamble Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2020 Author Share Posted December 27, 2020 45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Grinch storm broke a lot of people. Kind of ruined the vibe of the good start for many peeps...so I kind of get it. But that isn’t an excuse to start punting January. Especially when model guidance is all over the map...and these same models basically wanted to puke all over December too. Then they started getting optimistic, and then tried to pull the rug out again early in the month.... Remember all the panic of December not panning out after 12/5 disappointed some folks and they were complaining that the pig was coming back by 12/15 or 12/20? Lol...then we got a major snowstorm. I never once panicked about December, even before guidance supported a neg NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 18z EPS is hideous for ALL of New England. NYE/NYD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2020 Author Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think you’ve got to move away from your winter forecast. I don’t mean to come across wrong here, but I’ve noticed you don’t move away from your forecast even when everything points differently. Just my opinion., but this is one of those times Please elaborate...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Also, way too early to cancel. People are losing their shit because of the Grinch storm. Some of the interior already has 2 small snow events this month with a 10-15" storm in between. Well over their December snow climo. Anyone near or above snow climo to date, and complaining about it, can take a seat . It's about enjoying the inches that fall from the sky when they come in New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 37 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It’s quite sad to see people lose it over something that falls from rather sky. best of both worlds right now. No snowpack and above normal snowfall. You really know how to endear yourself with others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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