December 2020 Discussion

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Its coming

I hope you’re right Steve. Glad to see you posting regularly again, and hope you’re feeling better/stronger. 

[Ginx snewx]

Right down the street from me. Ice on the road from water still pouring out of the hills

 

 

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Para gfs for the possible storm on the 4th

Para was right for the 17th storm so whoever gave me weenies can sit on it.

[CoastalWx]

18z GFS really trying to shear apart that energy for NYE. 

[CoastalWx]

I guess in the end it didn't matter as the srn stream hung back and sent the storm north, but maybe an icing set up for the north country?

[Baroclinic Zone]

It may never snow again.

[Torch Tiger]

maybe NNE can get a crushing ice storm out of this cutter pattern. I guess that's the best we can hope for.

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Para was right for the 17th storm so whoever gave me weenies can sit on it.

Is that a recent run tho - ...I've only recently caught wind of discussion that it's got better verification scores ( than many think ) ...so of course, that's when my source at Tropical Tits decides stop updating it.  Their hung up on Dec 22, 00z

[Ginx snewx]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It's all about where the anomalies are located. I hate those effing charts, because they don't tell the story. I never ever look at those. I need to see the H5 anomalies. 

Also, way too early to cancel. People are losing their shit because of the Grinch storm. Some of the interior already has 2 small snow events this month with a 10-15" storm in between. Well over their December snow climo. 

Wait....Laconia, NH is well over snowfall climo? That settles it...its been a great month.

[Lava Rock]

Brutal for Pit2.

And NW ME

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wait....Laconia, NH is well over snowfall climo? That settles it...its been a great month.

Really has been, crap luck on the warmup but I will take 12 to 14 in Dec every year with a solid 2 week of snow cover. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

The cold being centered on the wrong side of the pole is not good. We need EPO to seed Canada 

I mentioned this yeserday....that is the smoking gun for how the SSW politics can still claim victory without you getting your snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Really has been, crap luck on the warmup but I will take 12 to 14 in Dec every year with a solid 2 week of snow cover. 

My snow cover was one week.

The month has been fine...nothing that will stand out in my memory, aside from a clinic in how to NOT run an NAO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Here is the other problem. Note the massive anomalies near Davis Straits. You'd think big block right? But look at the curvature of the height lines. Some subtle anticyclonic turning, but for those anomalies...you would expect more of a stout, deep ridge there....even in a smoothed out mean. I think the puke Pacific look is just pumping warm air into the normally cold parts of that area in Canada. The result are heights that are probably biased high due to warm temp anomalies vs actually a giant ridge. The temp anomalies are near +20F.  I don't doubt there are members with a ridge in the Davis Straits, but perhaps don't be fooled by those massive anomalies, as that may be more of a result of Pacific puke air. 

 

 

Great point.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Snowpack fetish is weird.  Gimme a 12” snowfall a month over that.

[KoalaBeer]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wait....Laconia, NH is well over snowfall climo? That settles it...its been a great month.

Ya I think I know what you are getting at. At the end of the day it really sucks we had two extreme events happen 7 days from each other on opposite sides of the spectrum. Mother Nature served parts of NH with a once in a lifetime snowstorm followed up with a historic (although almost seems annual) cutter. My friend on ops crew at Ragged says the 4ft is just gone like it was a dream. 

[RDRY]

Locked into the CWC (cutter, whiff, cutter) pattern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Ya I think I know what you are getting at. At the end of the day it really sucks we had two extreme events happen 7 days from each other on opposite sides of the spectrum. Mother Nature served parts of NH with a once in a lifetime snowstorm followed up with a historic (although almost seems annual) cutter. My friend on ops crew at Ragged says the 4ft is just gone like it was a dream. 

I can't stand when someone counters your frustration with information that has nothing to do with your backyard. "Why are you so angry, everywhere where you don't live has double climo snowfall".

[mreaves]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Snowpack fetish is weird.  Gimme a 12” snowfall a month over that.

Doesn’t that completely depend on where you live 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Locked into the CWC (cutter, whiff, cutter) pattern.

I see no way out of it right now, which explains my misery on the heels of my Boxing day redux.

Gonna need to get lucky bc this is January. and Feb will be worse.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see no way out of it right now, which explains my misery on the heels of my Boxing day redux.

Gonna need to get lucky bc this is January. and Feb will be worse.

Wow, so you’re saying that winter is pretty much toast then.  Pretty depressing for winter enthusiasts if you’re right.  So Hope you’re wrong.
 

 And hope Ginxy is right.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see no way out of it right now, which explains my misery on the heels of my Boxing day redux.

Gonna need to get lucky bc this is January. and Feb will be worse.

I think you’ve got to move away from your winter forecast. I don’t mean to come across wrong here, but I’ve noticed you don’t move away from your forecast even when everything points differently. Just my opinion., but this is one of those times 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess in the end it didn't matter as the srn stream hung back and sent the storm north, but maybe an icing set up for the north country?

I thought and posted days ago this looked like an icestorm for SNE. And probably snow NNE

[leo2000]

That is why we need help from a Major SSW as with La Nina's usually favor lower heights over Alaska. The La Nina is expected to weaken which should help with higher heights over Alaska. Which is what we want for a -EPO to develop. This 12z GEFS looks real nice. The affects of the Major SSW is already effecting Europe. It will wait until after January 5th for the Eastern US/Eastern Canada. We should be in business by Mid January. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My snow cover was one week.

The month has been fine...nothing that will stand out in my memory, aside from a clinic in how to NOT run an NAO.

People just don't understand the variety of NAO, never have, they look at historical numbers and try to predict LR based on numbers.  Gimme a transient block with a 50 50 low any day. I have hyped EPO with transient blocks forever.  Jan 11 started with a huge neg EPO dump that went positive, however the block moved west into  Canada allowing room for the 50 50 low denying cutters. At the same time transient blocking just upstream of us worked. I remain very encouraged starting the 2nd week of Jan excellent chances at a very snowy month will be back.

[PhineasC]

24 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Snowpack fetish is weird.  Gimme a 12” snowfall a month over that.

I used to think the same way, but now I live in a place that can actually hold pack (LOL usually) and I definitely see the appeal. 

[MJO812]

JB thinks a snowier pattern will begin the 2nd week of January

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see no way out of it right now, which explains my misery on the heels of my Boxing day redux.

Gonna need to get lucky bc this is January. and Feb will be worse.

Meh no way

[alex]

I know the mood is awful but let's face it... Nobody has any clue what the weather will be like in a few weeks let alone February and March. No model, no human. I respect all the Mets (and non mets) in here but let's face it, nobody ever gets long range right - at least no more right than chance alone would dictate. 2 weeks ago I was told I'd have feet of snow on the ground right now. Nope, didn't happen. I would love to see some data that shows a different conclusion but it seems that anything beyond a week is no more right than the New York Times horoscope page.