CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 10 years ago. What a great storm. Sorry Ginxy, 10-11 ain’t happening. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 It was right around this time last year when it became clear that 2019-20 was going to be a dead ratter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Fozz said: It was right around this time last year when it became clear that 2019-20 was going to be a dead ratter. Yep. I started the panic room thread on 12/24/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Speaking of 1989, Phin are you ok, Phin are you ok...are you ok phinny You've been hit by, you been struck by..a smooth cutter. The way you make me feel... I’m bad, I’m bad come on (really really bad) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 I went through the billboard top 100 for 1989. Some good bangers in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: It was right around this time last year when it became clear that 2019-20 was going to be a dead ratter. We had a massive fake-out on model guidance progged for MLk day and beyond. Looked almost like a 2015 patter and then it utterly vanished in mode guidance after being there for like a week. Thats’s when I personally felt the winter was screwed. This winter is pretty weird. The NAO is still in doubt but theres sign it eventually helps out...and if t doesn’t, there are some signs that the PAC may improve around 1/10 and beyond. Who knows for sure though. This hasn’t been a good winter for LR forecasting. Nobody saw the El Niño pattern coming from weeks out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 24 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Best east coast snowstorm pattern we’ve seen since January, 1996 right? Who said that ? You are a troll. Take a break All I have seen on Twitter and other forums are a great pattern might be unfolding in January due to the Tellies and SSW lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I went through the billboard top 100 for 1989. Some good bangers in there. Fiayuuuuhuh! Streams they are a risin! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Who said that ? You are a troll. Take a break All I have seen on Twitter and other forums are a great pattern might be unfolding in January due to the Tellies and SSW lol Get off GD Twitter. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 I suspect a large majority here would favor a good front-end winter and a ratter February/March than a weak December/January and good Feb/March. Unfortunately, I don't think snows limited to the first half of December rise to the level of a "front-end' winter. That said, much discontent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Solid snow squall in Nashua Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 On the ensembles the Jan 2 through 6 window still looks OK. If we can score a good event in Feb. 2018 in an absolute furnace perhaps we can score something in this window. Make the most of our opportunities like the big event we just had in December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Ensembles have steadily gotten worse each run for early January. We might be punting 3 weeks (roughly Xmas to Jan 10) if there’s no improvement. Totally on board now with a retrograding block 2nd week then Katy bar the door. Patience Grasshoppers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 10 years ago. What a great storm. Sorry Ginxy, 10-11 ain’t happening. Saved. Look forward to all your usual epic melts until you say oh wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Maybe the New year's cutter will morph into partly to mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles with light South winds shifting northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Out in la la land in GEFS (don't have EPS access) I would think a cutter would be difficult in the below pattern. Temps are not great obviously but storm track I would imagine would be ok. GEPS looks almost identical. Still looks better than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Icon does what the ukie last night. It splits the cutter and allows for cold air to press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Saved. Look forward to all your usual epic melts until you say oh wow. I’m not melting. It is what it is. But I hope you can throw this back in my face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Cold out today, I hate these cutter/cold pattern, not good for retaining snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m not melting. It is what it is. But I hope you can throw tks his back in my face. From Jan 1 to Jan 11 I had zero snow cover in 2011 so if the 10 11 analog works out I should be back in shape by the 2nd week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Really wish the CDC didn't go defunct processing these indices when the GFS' migrated to the expanded member ensemble system. When that took place there was no funding to recursively migrate the the core algorithms used to calculate the EOF system ... I was told by personnel at CDC that they did not know when any funding would be made available. Jesus, given to the tempo of the world affairs and judging by the Pandemic economy? good luck! It seems all these arms of the Government are destined to go to brown-out operatiions. Anyway, having multiple agencies assessing these indexes would do wonders to help in this situation. ...Something leaped out at me this morning that I had been negligent, and I suspect others have been too... or perhaps just didn't/don't know to consider: The AO prognostic intervals have become unusable - as their curves are off-line by too much to assume they have much deterministic value. All forecast intervals, D7, 10 and 14 ... The error is on the order of 2 SD (absolute value). I'm not sure if a "reset" of the system would fix this, or if it is more endemic/physical in the sense that the tech is what it is, and the atmosphere is just that complexly in a maelstrom. I have seen the system rebooted ( for lack of better words ...) in the past, but I am not sure what/why, or if just huge embarrassing gap control in the prog vs verification curve is ever a reason to do so... But either way, this is pretty bad folks, (note, the bold curve is the verification, and the other is ens. mean) That has grown GINORMOUS in error frankly, and given to the persistence and continued widening gap there... the prog's predictive use/value is almost meaningless at this point. The following statement may be more science fiction ...who knows, but with the Holiday season and an air of uncertainty et al the status of the world.. .one must wonder if there is anyone even there at the office over the last 10 days to address that glaring gap. I wouldn't trust the AO progs at CPC. Frankly, the NAO has a pretty bad error gap too - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif and I would almost argue that because the flow is fast overall, ... it may be skewing these indexes because it mimicks the negative phase state to have massive jet velocities S of them ...but the regions are not really in a blocking mode ... just a supposition. Either way, these verified patternization and embedded features, and the operational versions ... they are all actually not a terrible fit for the verification curves we see above, in so far as the GEFs are concerned... And I suspect the EPS system may also be faltering ...as I have seen the NAO progs from them and they seem to mimick the GEFs... and neither is performing -..in fact, the curves are parting company at a 45 deg.. gross. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: From Jan 1 to Jan 11 I had zero snow cover in 2011 so if the 10 11 analog works out I should be back in shape by the 2nd week If I have 30” of snow otg by 2/2 we will build statues of you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 21 hours ago, Powderboy413 said: It’s over folks, come back next year I've said this before and I'll say it again. This is the most pessimistic forum I've ever been on. A lot of you guys give up on everything way to soon. Yea..last year ended up like crap and we were very dissapointed, but a lot of you are brutal, and even bullies at times to others. This is a forum to discuss what may be happening, not bittercasting that the future of this Winter is over. I'm very sure I'll have people comment on this post in a negative way, but I could care less. I am still optimistic about the rest of the winter. I will take a good February ( and even March when we have had some of our greatest blizzards ). With 2020 being such a " locked in the house " kind of year, this type of activity on the forum is supposed to be an enjoyable one. For anyone who disagrees, well then I have an entire ass you can kiss...lololol. To all those who are on here to discuss the prospects of something good and who are optimistic, I'm with all of you. Now... It is looking like we have some good possibilities in early January. Its not set in stone, but it is in the realm of possibilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I've said this before and I'll say it again. This is the most pessimistic forum I've ever been on. A lot of you guys give up on everything way to soon. Yea..last year ended up like crap and we were very dissapointed, but a lot of you are brutal, and even bullies at times to others. This is a forum to discuss what may be happening, not bittercasting that the future of this Winter is over. I'm very sure I'll have people comment on this post in a negative way, but I could care less. I am still optimistic about the rest of the winter. I will take a good February ( and even March when we have had some of our greatest blizzards ). With 2020 being such a " locked in the house " kind of year, this type of activity on the forum is supposed to be an enjoyable one. For anyone who disagrees, well then I have an entire ass you can kiss...lololol. To all those who are on here to discuss the prospects of something good and who are optimistic, I'm with all of you. Now... It is looking like we have some good possibilities in early January. Its not set in stone, but it is in the realm of possibilities. Sorry dad. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I've said this before and I'll say it again. This is the most pessimistic forum I've ever been on. A lot of you guys give up on everything way to soon. Yea..last year ended up like crap and we were very dissapointed, but a lot of you are brutal, and even bullies at times to others. This is a forum to discuss what may be happening, not bittercasting that the future of this Winter is over. I'm very sure I'll have people comment on this post in a negative way, but I could care less. I am still optimistic about the rest of the winter. I will take a good February ( and even March when we have had some of our greatest blizzards ). With 2020 being such a " locked in the house " kind of year, this type of activity on the forum is supposed to be an enjoyable one. For anyone who disagrees, well then I have an entire ass you can kiss...lololol. To all those who are on here to discuss the prospects of something good and who are optimistic, I'm with all of you. Now... It is looking like we have some good possibilities in early January. Its not set in stone, but it is in the realm of possibilities. A lot were were pessimistic in January 2015 and then we got blitzed, pessimism is a good sign on this forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I've said this before and I'll say it again. This is the most pessimistic forum I've ever been on. A lot of you guys give up on everything way to soon. Yea..last year ended up like crap and we were very dissapointed, but a lot of you are brutal, and even bullies at times to others. This is a forum to discuss what may be happening, not bittercasting that the future of this Winter is over. I'm very sure I'll have people comment on this post in a negative way, but I could care less. I am still optimistic about the rest of the winter. I will take a good February ( and even March when we have had some of our greatest blizzards ). With 2020 being such a " locked in the house " kind of year, this type of activity on the forum is supposed to be an enjoyable one. For anyone who disagrees, well then I have an entire ass you can kiss...lololol. To all those who are on here to discuss the prospects of something good and who are optimistic, I'm with all of you. Now... It is looking like we have some good possibilities in early January. Its not set in stone, but it is in the realm of possibilities. I prefer to talk science with reality...not stubborn optimism. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 After our latest cutter on New Year's, the 06z GFS op shows at least 2 whiffs for us. Figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I prefer to talk science with reality...not stubborn optimism. Okay. Well make sure you're backing up your words then as facts. Just saying. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 12z GFS a little flatter with the NY system this run, Looks pretty icy actually for some in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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