December 2020 Discussion

[tamarack]

12 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

I lived in Delaware during the 2009/10 winter...it was fun down there, not sure about up here

Not my worst Maine winter - that's a tossup among 73-74, 05-06 and 15-16 - but definitely the most frustrating.  Four KUs and we had 3 whiffs and the worst 10"+ event ever - total precip was 3.81" (2.67" slop and 1.14" cold RA) making for the most difficult snow-clearing job of my life, far more laborious than pushing 24" pow up 6-7' tall snowbanks with the same snowscoop a year earlier.

[Typhoon Tip]

What's more needed there is a discrete study that statistically correlates larger systemic precipitation events over eastern N/A  with North Atlantic Oscillation's specific ranges, during predefined eastward vs midriff vs westerly biased -NAO ( +NAO ). 

Said study should look at each when:

- in static (relatively unchanging mode);

- vs when they are changing/ their curves are excited to increase or decrease ( modality ).

The blanket usage and assumption routine over the NAO is fodder for too many disagreements and at times 'stressed' vitriol, and an actual science may help clarify matters and usage. 

Furthering:  The only study that I am aware that actually attempted an accredited/discipline approach to the NAO@ 'storms' ... was papered back in the 1990s by Heather Archembault - although I am sure there are other papers that mention it indirectly, of course.   I have read her study and its primary focus was the Perennial North American patterns ( PNA)'s mode versus modality.  During that read, she mentions as part of her summary efforts, that there is a 'similar' response in the NAO, but that the signal was less clear. 

That does not mean a more coherent signal cannot be gleaned via a different more focused study/approach.   I think the study needs to be had and I really wish it would. Because when the NAO was popularized roughly around the 1980s, weather-related graphical media explosion ... over-sold it to an eagerly receptive audience. That era became weather and science for entertainment as much as informational -> and on and so forth.  The timing was right for it's meteoritic rise to fame and celebrity as the key-stone winter cop index.    NAO, OOH....wow ..yeah, North + oscillation - sounds cold and scary, caught the tidal wave of free advertisement in that era, and we're left with it still to this day. 

And it's like institutional racism now... Man, people bounce their heads off the wall assessing it's necessity in forcing cold(warm), wet(dry) scenarios because there's a culture built-in assumption that it does .. And, assuredly it has to, to some degree. It's an indicator of mass field, and since all mass is conserved... it's sign has to mean something.  But, the question is, how much or how little, based upon those crucial conditions above - it would go a long way to help guide in when to use it.

We can all agree, at least anecdotally, the -NAO has been prevalent < 50% of the time ( and in fairness? Probably less than 25%!) since 2000, a 20 -yr span in which Boston/Logan has verified enough boon-time in snow to demonstrative move the 30-year average an alarming amount given that short period of time.

Clearly, then, there must be a disconnect between the subjective perception over the NAO necessity, as it is needed to snow here - when at least at that one location, that's proven untrue.  But who are we kidding. It's been that way at all climo majors -   

Anecdotally ... we all know there is a pretty coherent different large scale forcing in the circulation medium over this quatra-Hemispheric scope and scale depending upon idiosyncrasies in the NAO layout, and therein ... whether the index is rising ( falling ).   But, personally... I believe the NAO is loaded ultimately by PNA by R-wave/resonant dispersion down stream ...given time lags. We could probably find the same signal as it is emanating source, from that wave decay model/ origin.  Aspects in the atmosphere do not spontaneously emerge, in situ; rather, they are delivered to the location constructively, until thresholds are breached and said location has gathered enough momentum for the phenomenon to blossom into registered observation - the NAO "comes from somewhere" ... it ain't coming from the E in an atmosphere that is bounded by geophysical laws dictating moving the atmosphere from west to east. 

 

[PhineasC]

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

0z Euro cuts that storm so far west on the 1st that its basically a warm front that lifts thru here.

Still snows a little on me. Since this pattern seems to really want to spin up cutters, I am better off rooting for weak systems and frontal passages followed by upslope. Gonna need to bread and butter my way to a snowpack for a while. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Still snows a little on me. Since this pattern seems to really want to spin up cutters, I am better off rooting for weak systems and frontal passages followed by upslope. Gonna need to bread and butter my way to a snowpack for a while. 

Your fortunate to have the synoptic component that you can rely on, No such luck this way, I need a lot more things to break right here.

[MJO812]

Anyone have the EPO ?

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

All the blocks I listed were uber/crazy blocks. 

Point is that people should not expect the same outcomes. The 2010 PTSD in here is fascinating. 

Had to be in Maine, especially the north, to understand how awful and how frustrating that winter was.  I clearly recall Cool Spruce wondering on about Jan 10 whether the big New Year's retro would ruin winter.  How right he was!

Still waiting for my 1st 30+; haven't come within 3" of that mark but more than a dozen 20"+, dating back thru March 1956.  (Technically could extend back thru Dec 26-27, 1947 but I was only 2 months old for that one.)

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

0z Euro cuts that storm so far west on the 1st that its basically a warm front that lifts thru here.

It did that ... but, it also showed between 60 and 108 or so hours, a slightly more proficient phasing between that western SPV elbow and the interloping S/W cutting by to its south.

It's just not enough to get that whole mechanical stream interaction to start carving S into the OV ... you'll need that for some late recovery or exit shenanigans up your way. 

We down here are cooked for the 29th unless two aspects really come into forcing/play:

1) ... the ridging over western Canada starts blossoming in 'arc' depth/ power between 72 and 90-ish hours.. If so, we won't need as much of -->

2) ...the Pac ( said interm. streamer ) injection coming in a lot stronger than it has in the last 24 or so cycles... Yeah... 6 days ago, that was a beast. Then over successive runs it has gradually attenuated and is now sort of paltry ... like a mouse running along within a herd of elephants... It is less likely assimilation will play that much of a role in present tech- era. No, but in principle/concept, a stronger Pac wave can sometimes mechanize the flow on its own...  

Best bet is to have the western Canadian heights rise more significantly like they did in the earlier runs last weekend ... because the Pac wave would concomitantly slope SE more coming to thru 100 W... and said SPV western N/stream elements would be forced to dive south ...and the subsume would be on...  In which case, we'd all cash-in on that - it's just that ever since that original handling .. the runs have been seemingly parameterized to not do any of that on purpose  lol. 

Anyway, the 00z Euro did actually show a slightly better constructed post ridge building of those western heights. And we are still technically 5 days away from that stream interfacing/timing.. I guess it is not impossible ..

 

[leo2000]

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Even 20”+ storms are not all that common here either, 3 come to mind for me.

I was a little baked this morning (Santa has a busy night ahead) so I reread the last page...I thought we were talking about how many 30+ hour, not inches, storms that have happened lol. 

Yea...so I’ve never experienced 30”, best was 26-28” in Jan 96. 

Last 20”+ event is Jan 11. I think I’ve had 4 in 35yrs living in the states. 

I’m surprised you’ve only had 3 up there though. Must have alot of 16-18” type events.

[Baroclinic Zone]

We 20”+ storms here in ASEMATT about every 3-4 years.  I’ve had too many to recall all of them.  Just in that last 25yrs I’ve had probably 10.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We 20”+ storms here in ASEMATT about every 3-4 years.  I’ve had too many to recall all of them.  Just in that last 25yrs I’ve had probably 10.

 

[leo2000]

It's rather ironic that we used to on here ask for the Atlantic to cooperate now we need the Pacific and no help whatsoever. 

[IowaStorm05]

Total Tshirt weather today.

But I was looking at the NAO and it looks favorable a week plus out! We would just need everything else to Come together 

Obviously you all are aware of that but I just needed a reason to come say hello!

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

It's rather ironic that we used to on here ask for the Atlantic to cooperate now we need the Pacific and no help whatsoever. 

I'd rather have a good pacific than atlantic though. 

We've been able to manage just fine without atlantic blocking in the past. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

30 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Total Tshirt weather today.

But I was looking at the NAO and it looks favorable a week plus out! We would just need everything else to Come together 

Obviously you all are aware of that but I just needed a reason to come say hello!

Hi. Happy Holidays. 

[MJO812]

51 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

It's rather ironic that we used to on here ask for the Atlantic to cooperate now we need the Pacific and no help whatsoever. 

Dude its December 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Fever is acutely symptomatic.  I know it sucks but shut it all down for a week bro. Write a Tippy  James Sonoran Hadley cell interaction with  sub 900 Arctic low novel or binge watch Ozark ( you will thank me later). Be smart my man

Fever is gone, but I'll lay off this week.

Thanks for the advice.

[PhineasC]

GFS and CMC ops both horrible for New Years. Any hope on the ensembles?

[Cold Miser]

5 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The dude should be all over Ozark...put the tight running shorts down and keep the pajamas on. 

Ozark is a good show.  .

[bwt3650]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fever is gone, but I'll lay off this week.

Thanks for the advice.

Feel better, bro.  Hate breaking a good cardio routine, but you get it back quick.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

30” is tough for any given one spot. For ORH, there’s 3 such storms on record. If you want to count 1888, that makes 4 (they had 32” in that storm but the official records didn’t begin until 1892 there). 

BOS has zero 30” storms on record. Though they have come close on a number of them. Parts of SE MA have had several (1978, 2005, 2015).

Then you have NE MA where some spots have had a few...Feb ‘69, Dec ‘03 (in a narrow swath), Jan 2015 a little further west toward northern 495 belt. But you’d be hard pressed to find a single point that has more than 3 I’d imagine. 

Now, there’s definitely no shortage of 20”+ storms in eastern areas. Most places have double digit storms in the 20”+ range. 

I had just over 30" in March 2018.

[bwt3650]

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

GFS and CMC ops both horrible for New Years. Any hope on the ensembles?

They get me over to snow eventually, but what another soaking prior.  When does all this blocking get established to stop everything from cutting to Milwaukee?

[PhineasC]

Just now, bwt3650 said:

They get me over to snow eventually, but what another soaking prior.  When does all this blocking get established to stop everything from cutting to Milwaukee?

Yes, both show some snow in our areas but only after an instant replay of this current storm. I am still hopeful the New Years event can be shunted south of the area. It almost looks like it wants to do that on the GFS. 

[Ginx snewx]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fever is gone, but I'll lay off this week.

Thanks for the advice.

Great to hear, how's the fam?

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Feel better, bro.  Hate breaking a good cardio routine, but you get it back quick.

First week I've missed since honeymoon in July 2018.

One week doesn't cost me anything.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had just over 30" in March 2018.

My all timer here is 29.8 Feb 13. 78 in RI who knows but over 30

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Great to hear, how's the fam?

We're fine...all fairly mild cases.

[weathafella]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fever is gone, but I'll lay off this week.

Thanks for the advice.

Yeah it’s hard for all of us needing our exercise to lay off when we should.  Get well!

[PhineasC]

Euro looks like it wants to pop a low further south for New Years and save NNE, at least.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Cutterville on guidance