December 2020 Discussion

[PWMan]

  On 12/22/2020 at 6:49 PM, dryslot said:

What a disaster.

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Well, at least I'll be cooped up at home with my kids for 2 weeks with no snow in sight. One final FU from 2020.

[MJO812]

  On 12/22/2020 at 6:53 PM, Allsnow said:

Need pac improvements ASAP 

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Now we have a negative nao and the pac sucks

Just can't make this up

January holds alot of promise 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/22/2020 at 12:12 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So DT’s big woof next week went puff puff?

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This set up seems more bark than bite to me.

[dryslot]

  On 12/22/2020 at 6:53 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We will need to wait and see how it evolves but damn, if I’m ski area management looking at that forecast,  you gotta question if you want to make snow between rainers?  
The answer is probably yes for the big areas but hopefully we can get this to change a little bit.  Jay Peak could end up with record low snowfall for December.

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Don't have the technology to make snow on snowmobile trails yet.

[dryslot]

  On 12/22/2020 at 6:54 PM, PWMan said:

Well, at least I'll be cooped up at home with my kids for 2 weeks with no snow in sight. One final FU from 2020.

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One of a year full of them.

[tamarack]

  On 12/22/2020 at 6:53 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We will need to wait and see how it evolves but damn, if I’m ski area management looking at that forecast,  you gotta question if you want to make snow between rainers?  
The answer is probably yes for the big areas but hopefully we can get this to change a little bit.  Jay Peak could end up with record low snowfall for December.

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They only had 11" in 12/94 and 14.6" four years later.  Pretty sure they've already passed those.  Still could finish well under the 55" average.

[40/70 Benchmark]

NVM thermals and track, but I'm not even that impressed with the storms themselves. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Dissapointing second half of December.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/22/2020 at 6:55 PM, MJO812 said:

Now we have a negative nao and the pac sucks

Just can't make this up

January holds alot of promise 

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When good modeled patterns get pushed back and delayed and delayed and delayed, they never happen. It’s very possible there is no good snowy pattern next week or beyond and the storm last week was it 

[TugHillMatt]

At least you guys had that storm last week. Over here in Central NY...still waiting on a good snowstorm. Painful is when I get 4 inches of snow, while an hour south they get 40 inches (last week). Here in supposedly the "snowiest major city" in the country, we're still waiting to hit the 12 inch mark on the season...which is really lame when you live in a lake effect area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/22/2020 at 7:07 PM, TugHillMatt said:

At least you guys had that storm last week. Over here in Central NY...still waiting on a good snowstorm. Painful is when I get 4 inches of snow, while an hour south they get 40 inches (last week). Here in supposedly the "snowiest major city" in the country, we're still waiting to hit the 12 inch mark on the season...which is really lame when you live in a lake effect area.

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You have a better shot of eyeballs growing out of your rectum than you do of me ever feeling badly for the Tug region's snowfall struggles lol

[TugHillMatt]

  On 12/22/2020 at 7:09 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have a better shot of eyeballs growing out of your rectum than you do of me ever feeling badly for the Tug region's snowfall struggles lol

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lol...I don't live in the Tug anymore. (Only there for a winter)

[MJO812]

  On 12/22/2020 at 7:09 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have a better shot of eyeballs growing out of your rectum than you do of me ever feeling badly for the Tug region's snowfall struggles lol

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Agree

They average over 200 inches.

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/22/2020 at 6:55 PM, MJO812 said:

Now we have a negative nao and the pac sucks

Just can't make this up

January holds alot of promise 

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Lol... Ant you asked me if I thought the decent tele’s you posted earlier would produce...I guess you got your answer with the modeling today....which is a “RESOUNDING NO!”
 

Which is what I was fearing when I said,  we’ve seen them(decent Atlantic teles) not produce many times in the past.  
 

And where does January show a lot of promise?   The -NAO, and -AO?  I wouldn’t be holding my breath on that either. But that’s just me. 

[78Blizzard]

  On 12/22/2020 at 7:00 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

When good modeled patterns get pushed back and delayed and delayed and delayed, they never happen. It’s very possible there is no good snowy pattern next week or beyond and the storm last week was it 

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Didn't we see this last year?  Groundhog Day. 

[mreaves]

  On 12/22/2020 at 6:56 PM, dryslot said:

Don't have the technology to make snow on snowmobile trails yet.

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I think I'm going to take them out of the trailer this afternoon just to bomb around the yard a bit before the snow goes away. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/22/2020 at 7:21 PM, 78Blizzard said:

Didn't we see this last year?  Groundhog Day. 

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I would say that if you are still waiting after the first week of January, pack it up and find a new hobby. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[CoastalWx]

This is not the look of last year. Probably more sh*t luck as things shuffle around. Sometimes that happens. 

[PWMan]

  On 12/22/2020 at 7:26 PM, CoastalWx said:

This is not the look of last year. Probably more sh*t luck as things shuffle around. Sometimes that happens. 

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And things broke just right for many of us last week. We tend to underappreciate the times when we thread the needle.

[RDRY]

I can't recall a worse end-to-end winter Euro run. Ho-ho-horrible.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/22/2020 at 7:26 PM, CoastalWx said:

This is not the look of last year. Probably more sh*t luck as things shuffle around. Sometimes that happens. 

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Not yet, anyway...

[Lava Rock]

  On 12/22/2020 at 6:53 PM, tamarack said:

My place is near the top of that snowless polygon in central Maine - will solidify my position near the bottom of the snow table.  

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Was surprise at your position on the table. maybe we should have a rainfall table instead.

[78Blizzard]

  On 12/22/2020 at 7:26 PM, CoastalWx said:

This is not the look of last year. Probably more sh*t luck as things shuffle around. Sometimes that happens. 

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Not saying it's the same look, just that the delayed outcome could be just as elusive.

[Lava Rock]

  On 12/22/2020 at 7:24 PM, mreaves said:

I think I'm going to take them out of the trailer this afternoon just to bomb around the yard a bit before the snow goes away. 

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Got my wife's ACE 600 in pieces trying to see why it's idling rough, stalling and not running on both cylinders. Pulled the tank and will inspect the fuel line/filter then move onto the fuel pump. Plugs look good. No hurry to get it fixed, but surprisingly some of our local trails are actually pretty decent right now.

[weathafella]

Might be time time to go to FL for a week.  Instead I’m going back to Chicago right after NYD....maybe one of the cutters snows on them.

[dryslot]

  On 12/22/2020 at 7:36 PM, Lava Rock said:

Got my wife's ACE 600 in pieces trying to see why it's idling rough, stalling and not running on both cylinders. Pulled the tank and will inspect the fuel line/filter then move onto the fuel pump. Plugs look good. No hurry to get it fixed, but surprisingly some of our local trails are actually pretty decent right now.

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Not a computer issue?

[ORH_wxman]

EPS look good out in the extended....there's a lot of NAO/AO blocking. We're going to have chances with that type of blocking....even with a pretty meh Pacific.

EPO region actually does briefly attain some pretty big ridging around D7-10, so don't be surprised if the progs for near New Years and beyond show up colder as Canada may trend colder than currently shown if that EPO ridge materializes. I definitely would be optimistic in the longer range despite some turds in the immediate punch bowl over the next week or so.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/22/2020 at 7:49 PM, ORH_wxman said:

EPS look good out in the extended....there's a lot of NAO/AO blocking. We're going to have chances with that type of blocking....even with a pretty meh Pacific.

EPO region actually does briefly attain some pretty big ridging around D7-10, so don't be surprised if the progs for near New Years and beyond show up colder as Canada may trend colder than currently shown if that EPO ridge materializes. I definitely would be optimistic in the longer range despite some turds in the immediate punch bowl over the next week or so.

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Nice. Sometimes these pattern shifts get delayed but not denied. No reason to jump off bridges or howl like a hungry winterwolf. 

[Chrisrotary12]

  On 12/22/2020 at 7:25 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would say that if you are still waiting after the first week of January, pack it up and find a new hobby. Hopefully I'm wrong.

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First week of February is when I start to lose interest. Like if we're not in deep winter or deep winter looks to come quickly. Close the shades on winter and start the golf and fishing threads!

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/22/2020 at 8:12 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

First week of February is when I start to lose interest. Like if we're not in deep winter or deep winter looks to come quickly. Close the shades on winter and start the golf and fishing threads!

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I just mean I'm not sold that this high latitude blocking doesn't have an end point. Doesn't have to mean a record +AO because I agree that is not happening again this year.