Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Yeah the icon solution is absolutely what happens when you have no antecedent cold air and all that on the backside is basically an 1888 model fold in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 You’re actually more apt to find that kind of a solution in the spring… Cold air masses modify faster when you get into March for obvious reasons such that the mid-level’s will come down and if you get into one of these phasic atmospheres they tend to run into that predicament where all the cold on the backside coming down with the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 GFS simply doesn’t phase anything. It just has an intermediate stream S/W there ...but also running thru a rotted antecedent air mass ... Whether the air mass is cold or not aside ... Not surprising the GFS is having difficulty in a phasing scenario at this time range given to its typical biases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 That’s one way for it to work lol. Retrograding low, okay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: That’s one way for it to work lol. Retrograding low, okay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 That’s not retrograding… phased solutions tend to move slow but that things motion is going to slowly move east northeast into the Atlantic if CMC… But none of these solutions are etched in stone obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 CMC with a Feb 2010 nightmare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 What kind of goofy shit is that? The low runs away to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: CMC with a Feb 2010 nightmare Uh ? Feb 2010 was way further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: What kind of goofy shit is that? The low runs away to the south? Hits a roadblock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Uh ? Feb 2010 was way further south March, or whenever the retrograde deal was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That’s not retrograding… phased solutions tend to move slow but that things motion is going to slowly move east northeast into the Atlantic if CMC… But none of these solutions are etched in stone obviously Yeah I just was looking at H5. Thought it did. Regardless these March like closed ULLs are my favorite type of system. I hope it verifies. I’ll chase if i have to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Hits a roadblock Some weird model stuff happens up here in New England. I guess I was never paying attention before. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: March, or whenever the retrograde deal was Was end of feb 2010 I believe 25-26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Ha ha ha oh my god that run is hilarious!… that solution would f’n send a storm induced tidal bore up the Charles river and denude all costal communities right of the face of the planet lol 2000 naut mi of 50 kt sea surface stressing probable sends an order of mag more ISE right into coast then Cat 4 cane, while LA Basin seismograph grad students aren’t sure what their looking at Just Gotta make sure the perfunctory spring tide which always seems to auto magically time on top of those suckers is in play and we’re in business 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Was end of feb 2010 I believe 25-26 Thought so. I wasn't talking about snowmageddon, @MJO812 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Yeah I don’t know… I think that’s a first in a series of storms are going to probably bring issues across North America in an era fraught with volatility I wouldn’t worry too much about those inverted synoptics like that at this time range - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: March, or whenever the retrograde deal was End of February 4 inches in the morning and 14 inches at night with thundersnow here. The rain / snow line cut right through Central LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 CMC is probably the closest thing to March 1888 that I've ever seen on a model run. Feb 2010 did not have a 1042 high. Would be a raging blizzard for NYC and western CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Quite the bang in clown range on the euro for NYE/NYD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Might be primed for a good Ray melt next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 hours ago, weathafella said: Quite the bang in clown range on the euro for NYE/NYD Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Next week’s snow turned to rains to Maine’s overnight. Is there anyway that one can be snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Next week’s snow turned to rains to Maine’s overnight. Is there anyway that one can be snow? No. Looks like another rainstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 25 minutes ago, wdrag said: My once/day update to allow the models to be variable eventually coming to a consensus on both coming events. I've seen a few posts and agree. 29th: I don't think LI/NYC I80 south can get much if any snow out of the event late 28th and 29th. I think snowfall, whatever it is, is restricted to the I84 corridor with the se edge maybe 20 miles south of I84. How much, yet to be determined but a WET sticky snowfall seems more probable than a crystalline cold. I've added the 00z/22 NAEFS which shows a low in the eastern Great Lakes with a receded High over Nova Scotia, which eventually has a secondary s of LI merge and potentially rapidly deepen near Cape Cod on the 29th (00z/22 GEFS is interesting on the negative tilt eased deepening of the 500MB trough toward CC). The 0C sfc temp is near I84 to late on the 28th (last image) while the 1000-500MB thickness at 00z/29 (first image) is surprisingly cool. So that is my reasoning to keep faithful to an I84 3+" event with much less chance of snow this storm for NYC. Thinking could change in the future but for now, since models are all over the place, it is probably smart to choose a wetter scenario for NYC and not overpromise there. NY Day may be another story... I think snow is in the mix and to me it looks to be a better chance of some sort of lead WAA snow thump, before a possible change to rain for our forum. Just tooo far in advance for me to offer anything else, confidently. 558A/22 Wil, Walt says there’s a chance. I could certainly envision rain changing to a thumping wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Close the blinds. unless you lose power, then open them 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Maybe not zero chance next week, but looks low to me. Kind of bad timing, Maybe better chance NYE, but that is also dicey. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Always good to be cautious. I like the overall opportunities but how much is realized in snow... the 50-50 block (LOW!) is most important. I don't see that yet but overall the anomalously strong and long duration (still next 14 daYS+) + 500 MB anomaly near the Davis Dtarit is a positive for snow options. I've added some minor WPC support with a D7 graphic for >1/4" frozen W.E. The darker green 30-49% chance. I like these graphics, but in clear cut event, they are very conservative. This one is not yet clear cut, so I can ride with it, EXCEPT as you can see from the issue time of 0455z/22... it is BEFORE the 00z/22 ensembles are seen (at least publicly). My guess this has to do with the shift hours. So, you're seeing later ensemble guidance from whatever resources and judge accordingly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 7 hours ago, RobertSul said: The sun angle tomorrow will be just as terrible as it was back on December 19th. And don’t get me started on those awful February sunburns. We've got a solid 4 weeks before Tip starts posting about how hot his car is getting when he's parked in the sun. Meanwhile, Kevin can start cleaning his yard next week. Your spring Lesco treatment is right around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now