December 2020 Discussion

[dryslot]

Kinda sort of.

[jlauderdal]

58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Frigid in FL while we unwrap in front of hastily installed installs

 

we might not make 60 on friday, that is a once in a 5 year event in southern florida

[mahk_webstah]

49 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol Christmas is shot this year huge family wise so this front whenever it occurs doesn't matter, what matters is how it sets up the 2 week period after Christmas. A little rain and wind Christmas will be forgotten very quickly I am sure

I agree with that 100%. I think the whole white Christmas thing is overblown.  But on the other hand could that be because I just had a white Hanukkah?

[PhineasC]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Kinda sort of.

3k even more so. Nothing epic but seems more organized than past runs.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I’m pretty sure my refrigerator neighborhood will have a white Christmas.
40° in Greenfield with 60° T-shirts and sandals in Hartford?

[MJO812]

Winter cancel

[Ginx snewx]

They bristled at my 10-11 first call only call in October. 

@nwscpc

The first half of January sees increased chances for above-normal temperatures across the Lower 48 states, with a pattern conducive for #noreaster activity impacting parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Winter cancel

Dumb ass read what they wrote above

[dendrite]

I guess a 45% chance of AN means a 55% chance of near normal or below.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dumb ass read what they wrote above

Phew

[DavisStraight]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

If there is a grinch storm.  Hopefully the low which rides the front trends favorable. 

Something looks off with that setup, I expect it to change

[DavisStraight]

Cranky Ginxy, how you feeling?

[CoastalWx]

Fire place smoke and outdoor winter fun at sunset. We winter baby.

[rclab]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter cancel

Anthony, remember in the old forums when someone, usually not close to that forums home, would post something like this in a bonafide cold and snowy region/area? The very next response post would be “INCOMING” . As always ...

[rclab]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

 

Forky must be doing the weather marketing strategy for the panic room. As always ....

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

yeah, we need to destroy that pack. Let's go

Go away. 

[Torch Tiger]

100kt let's go

[PhineasC]

Slightly above normal temps are fine here. Just need precip and the low to not go to Detroit or Buffalo. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't know what you are looking at but I would not describe the 2 weeks from Christmas on as boring, in fact oppo

Did I say from xmas on?

I said the next two weeks.

[FXWX]

45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dumb ass read what they wrote above

You mean folks are supposed to read and assess scientific reasoning and not just look at the pretty pictures?   That would take too much time; lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd would expect to pull another significant winter event between now and the NY......just have to see if anything pops after xmas disaster. If not, solid December, but nothing great IMBY.

[ineedsnow]

3k NAM is nice

[mahk_webstah]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd would expect to pull another significant winter event between now and the NY......just have to see if anything pops after xmas disaster. If not, solid December, but nothing great IMBY.

the next 2 weeks includes the new year....just sayin.  Looks shaky for the next week basically.

[weathafella]

When you have a big December dump there’s always a pattern flattening.  Think 1960, 1975, 2010.  A ton of winter is left and I’ll be really surprised if the big 4 are not above normal snow wise once winter is over.  

[JC-CT]

wiz must be getting giddy

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

When you have a bog December dump there’s always a pattern flattening.  Think 1960, 1975, 2010.  A ton of winter is left and I’ll be really surprised if the big 4 are not above normal snow wise once winter is over.  

It was so much fun to see all the snow piled around town today. Really had me in a good mood. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

the next 2 weeks includes the new year....just sayin.  Looks shaky for the next week basically.

I understand that....which is why I said hopefully something pops after xmas.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ryan melted every inch of snow past Maine on his forecast tonight. Brutal with two days of 50’s and winds and dews. Let’s now shunt and trend east into fropa 

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan melted every inch of snow past Maine on his forecast tonight. Brutal with two days of 50’s and winds and dews. Let’s now shunt and trend east into fropa 

I don’t think the duration of the potential torch is enough to melt the current pack.   There’s enough water so that post frontal it should be intact.   And keep in mind I’m not a snowpack guy so no positive bias here.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

NAM sort of looks interesting to me for Monday.

18z ?    ..yeah, it did in the 500 mb evolution. In fact, ..I'd say that trough is already a goodly bit deep enough to offer an open-wave NJ model deepener to skirt by underneath ... blah blah, but, we're just not seeing the surface in step there.  No development - why?   I suspect the early little overnight feature into the wee hours of Monday early morning is not helping. It's sweeping a column that is struggling to recoup dynamics as it is, ...out of the area, and I think the better amplitude we are seeing in that solution is just running on empty - so to speak...

I wouldn't bother mentioning end framed NAM charts at all ...if it were not for the antecedent discussion/reasoning .. but, mainly, the EPS mean has a pretty deep trough suggestive of negative tilt passing off the upper MA now too for that later Monday -Tuesday time frame, and has a huge 24-hr trend toward something deepening pretty significantly somewhere between Cape Cod and NS....  The isobars opening up toward the New England coast "sometimes" indicates there is member spread back west, too - ...

interesting... Right now, I think Will's original idea of a near miss/wider righter is probably the way to go .. but just keep and eye on it.. I still think it prudent to watch how these features get sampled coming off the Pac later tonight in the 00z run ...then 12z - respectively, the S stream injects first on the 00z grids, then 12z follows up with staggard N/stream tube of wind max and I just have a weird feeling that N/stream may calve backward against the hgt contouring as it is diving S ... near or W of Chicago ...  I mean it's already done that a little, it's a matter of how much more (or less..).