PhineasC Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Well, not sure it can look much worse than the CMC and GFS right now. It can only get better from here, right? LOL Hopefully it cuts so far west that I get zero precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 It was much better than this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What map is that? Sounds interesting lol. Or man you mean that one that shows the narrow tracks needed for a big snowstorm while the zone for a Rainer is like 2,000 miles wide? Yea. That’s the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well if the GFS is right, we are opening gifts in the dark. Saved by the tiniest of inversions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Back home? Nope. Waiting for the Dr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 This will change around a lot over the week..many changes in either direction possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m so angry thinking about all this deep snow being potentially wiped out, I hope it knocks down every town green Christmas tree in the 6 state region. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 26 minutes ago, klw said: Seeing that 6 hours before the event, it was only off on the placement of the heaviest snow in New England yesterday by about 250 miles, I think we can lock this in a week out. I mean right lol, these guys and their GFS op run posts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Because whether a storm moves over the Hudson river or Detroit is easier to predict, vs being in a 50 mile wide sweet spot for a snow event. You basically have 100 mile window for good snows and 1000 mile window for warm rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Our tradition is to open up presents Christmas eve, before midnight mass. But my wife likes Christmas morning, but super early...so whenever the kids wake up. Could be 5 or 9am, depends. We had family presents opening for all Christmas Eve and then the Santa gifts when the kids got up. Usually 5 am ish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: You basically have 100 mile window for good snows and 1000 mile window for warm rain. Sort of like Jackie Bradley's strike zone........ 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 And yet winter continues. Enjoy what you have while you have it. Big melt wont be until the traditional Christmas Eve, Grinch Storm. Meantime, enjoy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Because whether a storm moves over the Hudson river or Detroit is easier to predict, vs being in a 50 mile wide sweet spot for a snow event. so no chance this swings east and we at least get IP/ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, Lava Rock said: so no chance this swings east and we at least get IP/ZR? Never say never, but I'm not sure how this will change much over the next 6 days. Seems pretty locked on guidance. Trough starts digging in Rockies with no blocking. Maybe this looks more progressive and we can get a wave developing along it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: so no chance this swings east and we at least get IP/ZR? Don't do it, Forget it and move on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Don't do it, Forget it and move on. no riding till Jan I guess. not unlike last yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Never say never, but I'm not sure how this will change much over the next 6 days. Seems pretty locked on guidance. Trough starts digging in Rockies with no blocking. Maybe this looks more progressive and we can get a wave developing along it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, Lava Rock said: no riding till Jan I guess. not unlike last yr There is a bright side to everything, What you will have left will be bullet proof once the arctic hounds come in on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: so no chance this swings east and we at least get IP/ZR? There's always a chance some sort of sfc CAD sets up, but we'll need some sort of confluence to develop for that...even if kind of weak. Right now, there is nothing...it literally wants to rip the low into Hudson Bay....that's about the worst possible setup. : But we'll see if things change on guidance over the next 36 hours....I think the 3 best ways to avoid a disaster cutter are 1. Make the system more progressive and whiff on a phase which turns it into kind of a quick dryish FROPA on Xmas eve...still mild but not 12 hours of tropical dewpoitns and heavy rains. It would be through quite quickly. 2. Have the 12/21-22 system deepen and phase more with the arctic jet/PV lobe and that would create more of a pseudo block and probably promote more confluence in Quebec....which in turn, would produce CAD even if the system tried to cut west....you'd drastically reduce the warmth. 3. Bury the energy coming onshore in the southwest so that the whole thing turns completely flat....you'd end up with an overrunning situation or nothing at all 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Pray to Ullr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I vividly remember you posting years ago a map showing cutter possibilities with arrows over chicago, detroit, buffalo, etc...and like one arrow going underneath NewEng. Yeah I remember now, I thought you meant a model prog... but yeah when the track for rain can be 2000 miles wide and the track for siggy snow is like a 200 miles wide, it’s definitely easier to get the former over the latter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 hour ago, dryslot said: That low on the 25th cuts so far west it ends up in Hudson Bay. Great, maybe we can dry slot and enjoy the warm breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 37 minutes ago, MJO812 said: GARTH" close the shades" Looks great Ant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, dryslot said: Pray to Ullr. Some of us called the Christmas cutter back in October! It is so f’n amazing how reliable it has become. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mothman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah..it's been doing that with the last several cycles, that handling downstream/ N Atlantic ... I mentioned it to Will earlier - . You know, there is a climatology on Lakes cutters preceding transient NAO blocks over the D. Straight ..which makes sense as any vertically stacked bomb heading toward James Bay will tend to wrap a planetary wave decay into those higher latitudes up there... viola! Heights blossom for at least a while until it all disperses. But in this case, the GFS is trying to establish an actual R-wave redistribution out of it. Not sure - ... could be that it's just magnifying that - it's like the physics are the edge of the visible plain makes the moon look scary huge coming over the horizon - somethin' like that...we'll see. The GEFs do not represent that NAO handling in their mean/tele's last night or the previous night. Now, ...doesn't mean this isn't going to happen. Sometimes the higher res/normalized versions will precede the ensemble mean ... and then the latter catches on. It's a phenomenon more likely witnessed when there is cross-guidance, operational agreement. The ensemble means et al then gather around the operational consensus ...sort of in reverse order. I don't have any idea what the Euro and GGEM and UKMET are doing with the NAO domain, tho... Please someone parse this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Some of us called the Christmas cutter back in October! It is so f’n amazing how reliable it has become. You can call it a year out and be closer to right then a call made at hr60. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You can call it a year out and be closer to right then a call made at hr60. Should I go out on a limb and call the pre-Presidents weekend cutter next? That’s usually a pretty good lock too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Should I go out on a limb and call the pre-Presidents weekend cutter next? That’s usually a pretty good lock too. May be able to work a Jan thaw in there somewhere too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: May be able to work a Jan thaw in there somewhere too. Yup, generally MLK weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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