December 2020 Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

If there is a grinch storm.  Hopefully the low which rides the front trends favorable. 

I think you have a better shot of having a unicorn crawl out of your rear, but we can hope.

[Heisy]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually thought there was a little more stream interaction  on the 00z, as opposed to the 06z EURO for that next event...

I thought the slp was developing down off NC capes instead of much farther N like the 0z...NAM is digging more this run fwiw

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

I thought the slp was developing down off NC capes instead of much farther N like the 0z...NAM is digging more this run fwiw

Yea, I saw that...I was just talking about the stream interaction at H5.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you have a better shot of having a unicorn crawl out of your rear, but we can hope.

I mean it worked out in 2016 for some places 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I mean it worked out in 2016 for some places 

....And the TX gulf coast had a white xmas in 2004....we can always hope.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

....And the TX gulf coast had a white xmas in 2004....we can always hope.

I want a Dec 2002 redux

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

....And the TX gulf coast had a white xmas in 2004....we can always hope.

2010 too I think.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I thought the slp was developing down off NC capes instead of much farther N like the 0z...NAM is digging more this run fwiw

Flat 

[Cold Miser]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

You will miss perhaps the most active Christmas week in decades. 

If active means rain, no thanks.

With that being said, shades will be drawn, but I will be sleeping with one eyelid slightly ajar just in case I need to hop on Kevin's bus.

[klw]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I’m just gonna assume it couldn’t possibly be rain and 50s all the way up here on freakin’ Christmas. No way.   

And like that, Phineas is introduced to the annual New England tradition known as the Grinch storm.  My introduction was around Dec 23 of 2007 in Bethlehem NH, no too far from Phinland, when our 22" pack was taken to nothing in a single day.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, klw said:

And like that, Phineas is introduced to the annual New England tradition known as the Grinch storm.  My introduction was around Dec 23 of 2007 in Bethlehem NH, no too far from Phinland, when our 22" pack was taken to nothing in a single day.

 

These cutters definitely hurt more up here. In MD, you don't even notice the 50 degree rain because that's the typical weather we get in the winter. But up north, you go from 20 and snow to 50 and rain and then back to 20 and snow. You can more easily hear the record skip. LOL

[klw]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

 

If it cheers you, ride the CMC from 0Z.

[Cold Miser]

4 minutes ago, klw said:

And like that, Phineas is introduced to the annual New England tradition known as the Grinch storm.  My introduction was around Dec 23 of 2007 in Bethlehem NH, no too far from Phinland, when our 22" pack was taken to nothing in a single day.

lol

[dryslot]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If there is a grinch storm.  Hopefully the low which rides the front trends favorable. 

Good luck.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

 

These cutters definitely hurt more up here. In MD, you don't even notice the 50 degree rain because that's the typical weather we get in the winter. But up north, you go from 20 and snow to 50 and rain and then back to 20 and snow. You can more easily hear the record skip. LOL

That happens right before the stylus zips across your 33 vinyl record.

[Typhoon Tip]

A bit of preoccupation for XMas when there's other things in the foreground to consider -

I don't think it's even snow on the ground for those grousing - it's really about 'feeling' sad about anything that doesn't resemble a Curry&Ives setting out of window for Wassailers on Xmas eve, 'nogs and hot totties and cinnabuns on Xmas morning ... just has to have snow globe aggregates and icicles.  Like those scenes in "Funny Farm", with Chevy Chase and Madolyn Smith ...

Firstly, that's about 5% yearly return rate on that when considering the 30-yr climate aggregate... Out of the last 20 years, 1 Xmas timed that... 2017.. when we registered 6"10" and not even ubiquitously - I think it was too warm for that in Boston and SE zones... Maybe 2002 - I dunno

I wonder why/how folks became so conditioned to where they feel sort of 'cheated' or 'violated' if/when the Rockwell setting fails to set in due timing... 2/3rds of all Xmas' I've lived through in my tenure on the planet at this latitude, between the Great Lakes and New England ...failed to put snow in the air, and on the ground with 27 F rosy cheeked Wassail weather.   Interesting... In fact, it's actually cheating the Dr. Dew types to go the other way -

NAM's pretty bad as a guidance - to put it droll - beyond 36 hours ... we all know that - but, it's ending frames did tend the mid levels toward a steeper correction for the 22nd.  Again... cannot stress enough, ..these flat fast flows off the Pacific ...when the underlying PNA is +.25 and trying to rise... tends to later corrections, and we're seeing this in the Euro through 18z yesterday/overnight ...I think these next 24 hours in particular are an interval to watch as we are nosing these waves off the Pac and into the denser physically realized sondes

[Damage In Tolland]

Monday night has a good chance to snow and accumulate from about NYC north and east .  

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

A bit of preoccupation for XMas when there's other things in the foreground to consider -

I don't think it's even snow on the ground for those grousing - it's really about 'feeling' sad about anything that doesn't resemble a Curry&Ives setting out of window for Wassilers on XMas eve, Nogs and hot totties and cinnabuns on Xmas morning ... Like those scenes in "Funny Farm", with Chevy Chase and Madolyn Smith ...

Firstly, that's about 5% yearly return rate on that when considering he local climate aggregate... Out of the last 20 years, 1 Xmas timed that... 2017.. when we registered 6"10" and not even ubiquitously - I think it was too warm for that in Boston and SE zones... I wonder why/how folks became so conditioned to where they feel sort of 'cheated' or 'violated' if/when the Rockwell setting fails to set in due timing... 2/3rds of all Xmas' I've lived through in my tenure on the planet at this latitude, between the Great Lakes and New England ...failed to put snow in the air, and on the ground with 27 F rosy cheeked Wassil weather.   Interesting...

NAM's pretty bad as a guidance - to put it droll - beyond 36 hours ... we all know that - but, it's ending frames did tend the mid levels toward a steeper correction for the 22nd.  Again... cannot stress enough, ..these flat fast flows off the Pacific ...when the underlying PNA is +.25 and trying to rise... tends to later corrections, and we're seeing this in the Euro through 18z yesterday/overnight ...I think these next 24 hours in particular are an interval to watch as we are nosing these waves off the Pac and into the denser physically realized sondes

You forgot 2002. But yeah, snow on actual Xmas is pretty rare. Though 2012 technically pulled it off too but it wasn't a "storm". We had about an inch Xmas morning....it was actually a very pretty currier and ives type snow too.

For me personally, I can handle a cutter if there is still cover on Xmas morning....but I really don't want the cutter to be happening on Xmas day itself...that is just....gross.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You forgot 2002. But yeah, snow on actual Xmas is pretty rare. Though 2012 technically pulled it off too but it wasn't a "storm". We had about an inch Xmas morning....it was actually a very pretty currier and ives type snow too.

For me personally, I can handle a cutter if there is still cover on Xmas morning....but I really don't want the cutter to be happening on Xmas day itself...that is just....gross.

Yeah, I added that right after/edited - had forgotten 2002 .. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Monday night has a good chance to snow and accumulate from about NYC north and east .  

you mean Sunday night? 

[JC-CT]

I'm excited for Tip's throbbing NAO

[weatherwiz]

Just now, JC-CT said:

I'm excited for Tip's throbbing NAO

hopefully it's poking into the right region 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

you mean Sunday night? 

Monday night.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

hopefully it's poking right into my fanny region 

Would that be west-based?

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Monday night.

ohhh...with that amplifying trough/ULL digging in? 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Would that be west-based?

depends on position of entry 

[PWMan]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You forgot 2002. But yeah, snow on actual Xmas is pretty rare. Though 2012 technically pulled it off too but it wasn't a "storm". We had about an inch Xmas morning....it was actually a very pretty currier and ives type snow too.

For me personally, I can handle a cutter if there is still cover on Xmas morning....but I really don't want the cutter to be happening on Xmas day itself...that is just....gross.

This is pretty much my mindset, though for me Christmas Eve is maybe even more important in terms of "mood." Seems like we've had some really disgusting Eves over the past few years, with super high dews, roaring SE winds and aggressive downpours. I'd be fine with some warmth and maybe even a bit of fog or mist, but it's hard to ignore a warm firehose that pounds the windows and washes away a beautiful pack. 

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I’m just gonna assume it couldn’t possibly be rain and 50s all the way up here on freakin’ Christmas. No way.   

your not immune up there. sucks, but the grinch crap happens almost every year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

depends on position of entry 

Right up through the south pole

[ORH_wxman]

There could be a bit of weenie snow Sunday evening/night with that leading shortwave swinging through. I doubt any real accumulation but a coating wouldn’t be shocking.