Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: EPS loos good, strong rockies ridge, phasing trough, there is no clear 50/50 block, and unsure if there is a surface high present. Can you post! TIA!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 18z GFS has a nice neg tilt at 84 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Here comes Monday wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Here comes Monday wave The fast flow behind it makes it tough for this thing to tuck in. Close call. If anything it sets up a better Christmas period imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Strip of light blue (4-6”)on stormvista maps SE Ma. That has to be encouraging considering model bias. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Umm please stop looking at the FV3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Umm please stop looking at the FV3 I’m not? OP 18z gfs. It grazes the cape and extreme SE MA between hours 99-111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I’m not? OP 18z gfs. It grazes the cape and extreme SE MA between hours 99-111 That’s the FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: That’s the FV3 Oh my bad you’re right...I’m used to just the basic old pos GFS lol. They don’t run the new gfs during happy hour what else can I do?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Oh my bad you’re right...I’m used to just the basic old pos GFS lol. They don’t run the new gfs during happy hour what else can I do?! Lol I know man. After its abysmal performance on this storm , it can’t be used 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 hours ago, adelphi_sky said: Afternoon all. Mid-Atlantic snow-starved weenie here transporting his family to New England for a chance at a white Christmas. At least a Christmas with snow on the ground. lol I've given up on any chance of a DC white Christmas for my young children to experience. So, decided to chase cold air before they lose their over-the-top excitement of seeing snow. Wife picked Wells, VT. I'll be lurking in your forum for the next few weeks! Cheers! Out of the 251 towns in VT, how the heck did you come up with Wells? You don’t hear that as a destination often. I will say it’s pretty but Lake St. Catherine won’t do you much good this time of year. I guess it’s not too far from I-87/Lake George, NY. Anywhere in VT is good around the holidays. They were closer to the death band that sat there today but I don’t know how much that area ended up with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 If you are Christian, I will rent you space in my barn for Christmas Eve and you can pretend to be Mary and Joseph with baby Jesus surrounded by snow. I will even bring in a donkey and some other farm animals from my neighbor who has some. I can provide the full experience. You ride in on the donkey, I say there is no room in the house, and direct you to the barn. Very authentic! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mothman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Cold trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 The EPS was 3 to 5 dec deeper with the 120 hour axis nearing the MA Tuesday and a tick more aggressive with a GOM surface response- ... Very fast flow and we are not sampling all the material players over the open Pac quite ideally just yet.. But will be in cycles over the next 36 hours, particularly into Saturday... 22nd may be a late correction owing to these wave spaces ejecting off the Pac inside of a only 2,K naut mi width of mid latitude degrees at unusual pacing .. traversing the country at ludicrous speeds.. This is a candidate to do a three cycle correction abruptly toward a neg tilted but open, quick cyclogen ... NJ model lowl... Or, we could wavering flatter by the night runs Saturday into Sunday. For now as Will mentioned, we are sort of wondering about the S stream as a seeder wave serving to place hold/time right with that N/stream fisting southeast out of the Lakes to maybe subsume. But, it's also possible that just like this wave in the MV today, that served as today's 'kicker'/damper, also started calving backward a bit against the flow and digging ...the N/stream may follow the same behavior. It's already a potent jet... Then we don't need to phase/subsume as much because the N stream my yank the atmosphere around on it's own as a correction too - Lot can modulate between now and Sunday's runs - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, PhineasC said: If you are Christian, I will rent you space in my barn for Christmas Eve and you can pretend to be Mary and Joseph with baby Jesus surrounded by snow. I will even bring in a donkey and some other farm animals from my neighbor who has some. I can provide the full experience. You ride in on the donkey, I say there is no room in the house, and direct you to the barn. Very authentic! This is very Dwight of you. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The EPS was 3 to 5 dec deeper with the 120 hour axis nearing the MA Tuesday and a tick more aggressive with a GOM surface response- ... Very fast flow and we are not sampling all the material players over the open Pac quite ideally just yet.. But will be in cycles over the next 36 hours, particularly into Saturday... 22nd may be a late correction owing to these wave spaces ejecting off the Pac inside of a only 2,K naut mi width of mid latitude degrees at unusual pacing .. traversing the country at ludicrous speeds.. This is a candidate to do a three cycle correction abruptly toward a neg tilted but open, quick cyclogen ... NJ model lowl... Or, we could wavering flatter by the night runs Saturday into Sunday. For now as Will mentioned, we are sort of wondering about the S stream as a seeder wave serving to place hold/time right with that N/stream fisting southeast out of the Lakes to maybe subsume. But, it's also possible that just like this wave in the MV today, that served as today's 'kicker'/damper, also started calving backward a bit against the flow and digging ...the N/stream may follow the same behavior. It's already a potent jet... Then we don't need to phase/subsume as much because the N stream my yank the atmosphere around on it's own as a correction too - Lot can modulate between now and Sunday's runs - What are your thoughts on the 24th system? Seems today trends are to lean colder with no Grinch cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What are your thoughts on the 24th system? Seems today trends are to lean colder with no Grinch cut Yeah...I fear coming off as an optimism bunny lately but unfortunately ...we are in a mode where that sort of look is not really fitting with the longer term/persistent progressive nature to the hemisphere. That fast nature is both multi modal but also multi seasonal and goes back systemically for years at this point.. I don't "think" it yields just in time to allow that deep full latitude curvi-linear flow structure that moves the N-S length of the continental middle latitudes ... But, anomalies nested inside anomalies ... do take place from time to time. That just means... fast flow, then it slows for transiently, the back to fast flow - that transient slow down becomes an anomaly relative to the longer termed signal ... Sparing a long sermon - it I think a flatter variation of that is favored by said persistence and also.. the because implicit teleconnector, PNA, is neutral positive from the GEFs... Haven't seen the EPS PNA derivatives but (GEFs PNA + said persistence)/2 = something less dramatically deep and wound up ... We could cut, but it would be a flatter trajectory and not likely foisting a misty DP anomaly and southerly gale with it... More likely sharp c-fropa type ... I would look for that as the more plausible correction for now. However, before even getting there ... if the 22nd (~) system were to get more intriguing it's probably have a transitive influence on whatever happens next ..so, it's all fluid at that moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah...I fear coming off as an optimism bunny lately but unfortunately ...we are in a mode where that sort of look is not really fitting with the longer term/persistent progressive nature to the hemisphere. That fast nature is both multi modal but also multi seasonal and goes back systemically for years at this point.. I don't "think" it yields just in time to allow that deep full latitude curvi-linear flow structure that moves the N-S length of the continental middle latitudes ... But, anomalies nested inside anomalies ... do take place from time to time. That just means... fast flow, then it slows for transiently, the back to fast flow - that transient slow down becomes an anomaly relative to the longer termed signal ... Sparing a long sermon - it I think a flatter variation of that is favored by said persistence and also.. the because implicit teleconnector, PNA, is neutral positive from the GEFs... Haven't seen the EPS PNA derivatives but (GEFs PNA + said persistence)/2 = something less dramatically deep and wound up ... We could cut, but it wo uld be a flatter trajectory and not likely foisting a misty DP anomaly and southerly gale with it... More likely sharp c-fropa type ... I would look for that as the more plausible correction for now. However, before even getting there ... if the 22nd (~) system were to get more intriguing it's probably have a transitive influence on whatever happens next ..so, it's all fluid at that moment. An "optimism bunny"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah...I fear coming off as an optimism bunny lately but unfortunately ...we are in a mode where that sort of look is not really fitting with the longer term/persistent progressive nature to the hemisphere. That fast nature is both multi modal but also multi seasonal and goes back systemically for years at this point.. I don't "think" it yields just in time to allow that deep full latitude curvi-linear flow structure that moves the N-S length of the continental middle latitudes ... But, anomalies nested inside anomalies ... do take place from time to time. That just means... fast flow, then it slows for transiently, the back to fast flow - that transient slow down becomes an anomaly relative to the longer termed signal ... Sparing a long sermon - it I think a flatter variation of that is favored by said persistence and also.. the because implicit teleconnector, PNA, is neutral positive from the GEFs... Haven't seen the EPS PNA derivatives but (GEFs PNA + said persistence)/2 = something less dramatically deep and wound up ... We could cut, but it would be a flatter trajectory and not likely foisting a misty DP anomaly and southerly gale with it... More likely sharp c-fropa type ... I would look for that as the more plausible correction for now. However, before even getting there ... if the 22nd (~) system were to get more intriguing it's probably have a transitive influence on whatever happens next ..so, it's all fluid at that moment. Yeah I’m not thinking it morphs into a wintry event. More just a basic fropa instead of a cut scream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 18z euro has the northern branch diving farther south at 90 hours. Looks really good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 14 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: 18z euro has the northern branch diving farther south at 90 hours. Looks really good ominous look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Ok, ...wee bit embarrassed - where are y'all seeing the 18z Euro ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 hour ago, mreaves said: Out of the 251 towns in VT, how the heck did you come up with Wells? You don’t hear that as a destination often. I will say it’s pretty but Lake St. Catherine won’t do you much good this time of year. I guess it’s not too far from I-87/Lake George, NY. Anywhere in VT is good around the holidays. They were closer to the death band that sat there today but I don’t know how much that area ended up with. Wells is probably one of those towns prone to completely torching Maybe PF could hook him up w a tent and sleeping bags by the picnic tables. Probably a solid view of Santa trying to battle the 80kt Southerly Jet progged on Xmas eve . Hopefully that changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ok, ...wee bit embarrassed - where are y'all seeing the 18z Euro ? Stormvista subscription myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 18z euro looks like it would produce 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z euro looks like it would produce Exactly. That’s plenty of room and phase interaction already occurrjng 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z euro looks like it would produce We’ve got an event to track and most folks have no idea 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 18z euro looks like it would produce Or is right at the threshold and can't get any more indicative or it has to - it's really right on the edge --.. I'd say if we can grab a hold of those isopses leaving the MA out over the open Atlantic and get 'em into 'bent' configuration (while of course conserving the appeal of those two precarious phasers- even a little on the next run ) we're probably headed for something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: We’ve got an event to track and most folks have no idea We do ? we've been talking about it for days ... I know I know.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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