Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just want some snow. Could care less who jacks. Ray wants it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Ray wants it I don't expect that at all here for a couple of reasons....not the type of event to JP my area. Just want a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 The S/W as modeled moves in pretty far west compared to the SLP center. I know Will mentioned that. So two things. 1) That will force the mid level goodies pretty far NW. 2) Maybe slow correction west of SLP? Seems to me, the SLP placement is driven significantly by the baroclinic zone, hence the offshore look on some guidance. Wouldn't take much at all to get it closer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: The S/W as modeled moves in pretty far west compared to the SLP center. I know Will mentioned that. So two things. 1) That will force the mid level goodies pretty far NW. 2) Maybe slow correction west of SLP? Seems to me, the SLP placement is driven significantly by the baroclinic zone, hence the offshore look on some guidance. Wouldn't take much at all to get it closer. Yea, still not worried too much about a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Trying to time and space out features in an 'unmanned firehose' pattern - lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I just want more snow than anyone else on this message board. Don’t see why that’s too much to ask 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said: I just want more snow than anyone else on this message board. Don’t see why that’s too much to ask The southwest forum is that-a-way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 UKIE is concerning, I thought it showed a whiff yesterday also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Trying to time and space out features in an 'unmanned firehose' pattern - lol I don't think this is the classic unmanned firehose given the Atlantic blocking....we have some good wiggle room. S/w wants to try and track 75 miles west? still going to run into the block and be forced underneath. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 We may be able to have a white Xmas this year. Man would that be welcomed 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: UKIE is concerning, I thought it showed a whiff yesterday also? IMO a whiff is more likely than a cut. Forky and a few others feel otherwise however. I think even if it "cuts" the system will be somewhat of a shredded POS and any type of S/W or system slamming into that high, even if it tracks inland from the coast might produce significant from end snows 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We may be able to have a white Xmas this year. Man would that be welcomed Very strong likelihood. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: UKIE is concerning, I thought it showed a whiff yesterday also? It showed a cutter yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 A big change in the CFS weeklies for January much colder! and the CFS monthly as well for January. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 gefs look good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't think this is the classic unmanned firehose given the Atlantic blocking....we have some good wiggle room. S/w wants to try and track 75 miles west? still going to run into the block and be forced underneath. I think he means fire hose relaying off of the Pacific....ie timing of the wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: We may be able to have a white Xmas this year. Man would that be welcomed GFS/GEFS really looked better at 12z....hopefully that is a true change in the look...it's really asserting the NAO more than previous cycles. It's making the 12/20 system a legit snow threat now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think he means fire hose relaying off of the Pacific....ie timing of the wave. Yeah i can see that...but I don't think that matters a ton in this situation...whether the wave is a little north or south or stronger or whatever, it still gets "funneled" into the same area because of the block. I mean, that doesn't mean things can't go wrong...if the wave comes in really weak or something, then we might have major problems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah i can see that...but I don't think that matters a ton in this situation...whether the wave is a little north or south or stronger or whatever, it still gets "funneled" into the same area because of the block. I mean, that doesn't mean things can't go wrong...if the wave comes in really weak or something, then we might have major problems. Right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Yea. More margin for error with blocking ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 There's obviously still a decent amount of lead time too. Plenty of chances to screw it up....but I do like tracking the systems better when there's a block like that. It feels a little less precarious. It's very similar to how I felt tracking the 1/12/11 storm. Had this awesome davis straight block and this deep shortwave just traversing the center of the county and it didn't seem to matter really how that shortwave trended because it got squeezed south of us every time. I remember that one basically being locked and loaded on the Euro for about 5-6 days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 A 3rd string RB can churn out positive yards with a good O line. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 I'm a little more confident than John seems to be in an event, though I do question some of these epic solutions, which should be everyone's baseline at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 I think things should begin to come in to focus during the day on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think thinks should begin to come in to focus during the day on Sunday. Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: IMO a whiff is more likely than a cut. Forky and a few others feel otherwise however. I think even if it "cuts" the system will be somewhat of a shredded POS and any type of S/W or system slamming into that high, even if it tracks inland from the coast might produce significant from end snows I will be honest Forky giving hints of rain scares me. He usually chimes in when he is confident. However he jokes a lot too so not sure if he is just pulling chains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 GEPS are northwest, closer to climo: stole from another thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, Henry's Weather said: GEPS are northwest, closer to climo: stole from another thread I don’t think “climo” really matters too much in a block that strong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: GEPS are northwest, closer to climo: stole from another thread Good ole fashioned Long Island Sound dividing line. I would think the block would limit these moves nw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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