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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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3 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

  AT THIS   RANGE  THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS ARE 

  •  ensembles 
  •  and does the op  run MATCH  the ensemble  mean ( or close  to it )

Dave what do you think about this first storm for early week sneaking up on a few people? Cold air an issue, but maybe people on the fringe of the precip could do well.

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1 hour ago, DTWXRISK said:

 UM    what storm for  xmas?

I’ll let you in on the inside joke Dave. It’s the ongoing annual joke in this subforum. The annual Grinch cutter that let’s everyone open their windows Xmas eve while Rudolph guides Santa in his speedo. 

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1 hour ago, vtrap90 said:

Beware the NW trend.

 90% of the time  there is  NO   nw   trend .. 

  this  MYTH comes from the  older  versions  of the shitty op GFS  always  starting  every low  off the coast of  GA at 168 hrs  as a  weak ass  flat LOW  

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18z  GEFS  is still  looking very  good  and  MUCH  different from  the   op GFS  AT 18Z

  this  tells me... and this is just   NY view  ...fell   free to   dispute it... but  this  tells me that  the  op GFS   runs are having its  usual issues  with
  PTJ/ STJ  interactions

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12 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

18z  GEFS  is still  looking very  good  and  MUCH  different from  the   op GFS  AT 18Z

  this  tells me... and this is just   NY view  ...fell   free to   dispute it... but  this  tells me that  the  op GFS   runs are having its  usual issues  with
  PTJ/ STJ  interactions

18z EPS looks real nice at H5 @ 144 fwiw

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16 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

 90% of the time  there is  NO   nw   trend .. 

  this  MYTH comes from the  older  versions  of the shitty op GFS  always  starting  every low  off the coast of  GA at 168 hrs  as a  weak ass  flat LOW  

Us deep interior folks support this message.  Coastal systems don’t just start to magically track 100+ miles NW at shorter lead time.  Possible?  Sure but that myth has been put to bed since 2013 or so.  At this time frame anything is possible though.

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