Henry's Weather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Once there ... sure! I mean I'm not trying to be a deb downer ...and I realize I'm hammering this point to no avail ( lol ...) but I just don't like the shallow N-S coordinate while raging 100 to 150 kt mid tropospheric jet and flat PNAP ... transporting open longitudinal waves off the Pacific like that whole lead up is. It may happen...okay. Fine... and I agree, as is? That's a fine tasty look. I tell you what *if* *if* *if* that pattern morphs successfully into that configuration ( for the folk reader - ) you wouldn't need a hugely powerful system to create a prolific snow result. The kinematic structure is quite superb in that set up ... that's a 'snow machine' look .. perfect 700 mb easterly anomaly running up over a steadily backing wind with depth... NNE over interior .. very cold column... wow - I just don't like how we get there... Hope it does though - this is some seriously boring weather otherwise, huh kinda like 2003? (weenie solution caveat) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: kinda like 2003? (weenie solution caveat) I'm the one who said that to him back then by the way... Out of the mouths of babes and onto television -- Yeah, that storied storm - you're talking about December 2003, 5-7th ?? - That had a bitter cold air mass packed into eastern Ontario. I remember the cold exerion down the coastal plain/damming and burier jet ... just insane. Enough that it sandwiched the CF all the way down in, ..well, almost to Sandwich.. Exaggerating to make the point here but it was like 42 F at the Sag. bridge and 22F more 5 miles west of there - something like that. I know it was 19 F up where I was living in Winchester Mass at the time ...which is actually S of Woburn down I-93 ... I think we got 18" of pow pow out of that and managed a bare ground x-mass - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 36 minutes ago, dryslot said: Meh You know SNE will get crushed and we’ll get 2” of wind blown salt and sugar. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Euro looks better for my house in MD than Randolph right now. LOL You can bet that won’t happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm the one who said that to him back then by the way... Out of the mouths of babes and onto television -- Yeah, that storied storm - you're talking about December 2003, 5-7th ?? - That had a bitter cold air mass packed into eastern Ontario. I remember the cold exerion down the coastal plain/damming and burier jet ... just insane. Enough that it sandwiched the CF all the way down in, ..well, almost to Sandwich.. Exaggerating to make the point here but it was like 42 F at the Sag. bridge and 22F more 5 miles west of there - something like that. I know it was 19 F up where I was living in Winchester Mass at the time ...which is actually S of Woburn down I-93 ... I think we got 18" of pow pow out of that and managed a bare ground x-mass - haha Oh yeah, I was referring to PDII, which was like a 1013 mb low or something crazy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: You know SNE will get crushed and we’ll get 2” of wind blown salt and sugar. give us break, will ya? we havent had a warning level event since Mar 2019. Almost 2 years. And a warning level event in met winter since Jan 2018, Almost 3 years. I got 10 freaking inches last winter for christs sakes im ready to 1 3 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 That's one of my most favorite transition weeks of all time... Here was a infamous traffic snarl windex event that heralded in the cold that set stage for the system later that week... That inocuos trough and green smudging there was the most afflicting 1/2 to 1.5" of snow of all times. I-95 was a parking lot that morning and it took people like 4 hours get to the office. Temp went like 37 to 25 in white outs squalls like immediately, and the roads flashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Oh yeah, I was referring to PDII, which was like a 1013 mb low or something crazy? Ah ...gotcha -... yeah... truth be told, all these storms have some sort of analogical relationship... I mean, cold north warm south moisture involved ne wind ... they all got that going for them... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Quite cold afterwards too....multiple nights in the single digits or below 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm the one who said that to him back then by the way... Out of the mouths of babes and onto television -- Yeah, that storied storm - you're talking about December 2003, 5-7th ?? - That had a bitter cold air mass packed into eastern Ontario. I remember the cold exerion down the coastal plain/damming and burier jet ... just insane. Enough that it sandwiched the CF all the way down in, ..well, almost to Sandwich.. Exaggerating to make the point here but it was like 42 F at the Sag. bridge and 22F more 5 miles west of there - something like that. I know it was 19 F up where I was living in Winchester Mass at the time ...which is actually S of Woburn down I-93 ... I think we got 18" of pow pow out of that and managed a bare ground x-mass - haha That 12/5-12/7 was definitely a memorable couple of hits for SNE. what happened in the few weeks following? Basically those snows were followed up by a change to rain and milder pattern, however I recall that the snowy coastal deal returned nicely once we entered 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 So... here comes the boom ... surface high N and low Miller Bs up underneath - or gets ready to at 12z here on the 5th... Note it is not an overwhelmingly powerful system... but, that high up there was f'g'n cold man! ...and this thing rollin' underneath just absolutely was flawless DGZ glide 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: So... here comes the boom ... surface high N and low Miller Bs up underneath - or gets ready to at 12z here on the 5th... Note it is not an overwhelmingly powerful story... but, that high up there was f'g'n cold man! ...and this thing rollin' underneath just absolutely was flawless DGZ glide How come it took a WPC graphic to convince you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm the one who said that to him back then by the way... Out of the mouths of babes and onto television -- Yeah, that storied storm - you're talking about December 2003, 5-7th ?? - That had a bitter cold air mass packed into eastern Ontario. I remember the cold exerion down the coastal plain/damming and burier jet ... just insane. Enough that it sandwiched the CF all the way down in, ..well, almost to Sandwich.. Exaggerating to make the point here but it was like 42 F at the Sag. bridge and 22F more 5 miles west of there - something like that. I know it was 19 F up where I was living in Winchester Mass at the time ...which is actually S of Woburn down I-93 ... I think we got 18" of pow pow out of that and managed a bare ground x-mass - haha Woburn had 26". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Here you go on the 6th, 12z ... all that trouble from a 1004 mb low ... 15 to 20 " worth - don't have to have very big intense bombs all the time... Sometimes you max out one or two metrical values and viola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Woburn had 26". yeah... I was just getting the numbers out there word! I think I was 22 but not sure... 18 anyway - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How come it took a WPC graphic to convince you? oh I don't problem with the event... it's getting that set up - I know your busin' balls it's all good... But the flow is too damn flat and fast for me to trust... I'd almost be surprised if this didn't turn into something else... Maybe more ? hey - how about that... who with me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How come it took a WPC graphic to convince you? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2003/us1205.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2003/us1206.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Interesting ... I guess that storm did actually get down to respectively ... Hm... I swear I remembered that being a weaker - it may have also been a situation where the damage was already done - so that this was upon exit and not really doing as much as that looks suggest - I remember something peculiar about that storm as being superb snow generation relative to its look either way.. But, this is the 7th and 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2003/us1205.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2003/us1206.php I wish it was slow like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Oh I'm an idiot, I thought he was looking at day 7 forecasts charts that they provide. He's being a weenie to Dec 2003. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: You know SNE will get crushed and we’ll get 2” of wind blown salt and sugar. a classic dendrite-dryslat screwjob. Gene will have a sunny day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Shouldn’t the 50/50 and some -NAO blocking(two things we haven’t seen in forever) slow this down some if it were to play out Like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 EPS probs for 1,3,6 and 12 are very high for the lead time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 21 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Euro looks better for my house in MD than Randolph right now. LOL You can bet that won’t happen. It happens! If it were averaged out over a season, no - but for an individual storm, why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Oh I'm an idiot, I thought he was looking at day 7 forecasts charts that they provide. He's being a weenie to Dec 2003. What ...? oh ..heh. 'shoulda kept with the ball bustin' - you were winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Interesting ... I guess that storm did actually get down to respectively ... Hm... I swear I remembered that being a weaker - it may have also been a situation where the damage was already done - so that this was upon exit and not really doing as much as that looks suggest - I remember something peculiar about that storm as being superb snow generation relative to its look either way.. But, this is the 7th and 12z I do wonder if you were thinking of Feb 17-18th, 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: oh I don't problem with the event... it's getting that set up - I know your busin' balls it's all good... But the flow is too damn flat and fast for me to trust... I'd almost be surprised if this didn't turn into something else... Maybe more ? hey - how about that... who with me! I agree with you, TBH....I just made a blog post yesterday about how I expected a parade of moderate systems. I'm going to give this through the weekend to adjust expectations larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Nothing wrong with a 6-10" deal either. It's like all or nothing these days. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 19 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Quite cold afterwards too....multiple nights in the single digits or below Let’s just not have the grass showing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Nothing wrong with a 6-10" deal either. It's like all or nothing these days. A fluffy 6-10” would be perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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