CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, It's Always Sunny said: Lol. Scott had his son looking at weather models the day he came home from the hospital. I've had to weenie tag him already. Wanting severe and snow storms and getting mad when I temper his expectations. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Tippy Terd in the punch bowl. I think we all stated the day 7-8 caveats, but I'd argue the large picture has some of the key features you look for. I don't see this as progressive "ruler" flow like we've had before. Sure it may nt work out, but even afterwards...you could state that we have several chances down the road over the next 2+ weeks. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My son was complaining that we had no snow because he went to Blue Hills on Sunday and went hiking in the snow, and then the snow fell at my folks in Marshfield the other day. Kid is a true weenie. He pulls up the icon on TT when I'm not looking. TT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Is anyone noticing that redic cold plume that's gaining mass over interior/NW territories of the Canadian shield on the Euro operational..? That's the most consistent identifiable 'object' on any of these charts and means... -30 C 850 mb isn't a mere parcel over Dead Horse ...it's spread out over a huge real-estate now, and is nearing -40 C at a couple of nodel holes... Man, should the synoptic dam ever topple and bring that down, it's not like it's traveling from Siberia over and open Beaufort Sea... it'd be Chicago with zero modification trek - The PV just kind of sits there in the same spot and spins for days on end....good environment to just keep cooling down with almost no solar insolation now up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 TropicalTidbits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree. Hey... you guys only see the neg-head side of that uncertainty - "math" requires there's a possibility in either direction; it could very well come in great, too - I never said no to that ... go back and read the fugger - ... I said, "confidence" is low - that can mean anything. I just read a 'tenor' for optimism ...and while I don't have a problem with optimism itself, it has to be foundationed in something... I hear the melody in here and it sounds like someone dreaming of a someone they used to know, and thinking that because it's on the radio - that must be a sign... hahaha... Oh god - welcome to my life 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Education and experience tells us not to be optimistic about D7/8 ... Why ? Beyond the obvious ... that "D7/8" aspect, the pattern is one defined by fast and progressive, and I would even rub that in by calling it 'fastly progressive'. I'm not even sure the system in the foreground up through the Lakes is being handled right. The flat very fast nature of the flow is so excessive ...that system's governing wave space is still off the west coast. It's actually not even over land and into the denser physically realized sounding grid. I mean... assimilation has come a long way - in fact... I have noticed that "shadowing," which used to cause depth/amplitude morphology headaches down stream over eastern N/A in the past... is now gone in most cases. However, over this recent decade or so - I'm suspicious there isn't a deliberate bias to over-assimilate where uncertain. Over doing matters is not likely to harm civility - ... lol, annoy Kielbasa weather chart cinema co-dependent neurotics like us ? sure.. But 99.999999% of the population is not going to be injured ...it's not seeing potency that will... and so on... Different discussion.. Without the western ridge/easter trough coupled ( 101 here ) structure ... mm. See, when the flow is curved, it stresses the S/W strength over arcs of ridges (destructive) ..tending to 'iron' unwanted wrinkles - think of it that way.... Those that survive that ride, they get constructive feedback/amplitude boost as they near the bottoms of trough... - this total process "filters" noise out naturally ... Thus, conservation of wave mechanical energy results - predictability increases ... So, instead of buck-shot coming off the Pacific like now... you get a nicer orderly wave spacing with bigger slugs of dreams of cryo candy bliss and less domestic blowouts - When the flow lacks these larger scale focusers/filters ...conservation opens up to entropy ( disorganization ) and S/W interfere ... blue lights flicker over car tops parked at angles across front lawns... Even the more advanced technology systems have intrinsic difficulty handling fast open wave progressive flow tendencies ... without the extra hyper discrete sampling to avoid the choas emergence of wave interactions when the flow lacks to the ability to "focus" mechanics wave space into a specific spatial-temporal positions within the streams. That's enough... Anyway, this nearer term deal off the Pacific could come in slightly over assimilated...and that would mean ( most likely ..) a flatter evolution ...more through the eastern Lakes or even NY as a short term correction... Doesn't mean much for us as far as our sensible weather ... Meaningless shade-puller while we watch our NFL teams... But, that trailing wave might get less interfered negatively by a weaker lead system ...Those ICON - type solutions for early Tuesday could "little critter" the area ... But even this 'correction model' is complete shit when considering that chaos is rather high - ... All this, THEN... whatever happens D7/8 ?? Good luck... Was thinking the same. If the threat is still there Sunday evening while I'm sipping an adult beverage.. then I'll get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Probably best to don straightjackets prior to Euro op runs for the next 3 days. I’ll notify the wife to get the sedative shots from the doctor too. Standard procedure. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I've had to weenie tag him already. Wanting severe and snow storms and getting mad when I temper his expectations. Doesn't sound like he's on the road to trade school like you had hoped for a few years ago lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The PV just kind of sits there in the same spot and spins for days on end....good environment to just keep cooling down with almost no solar insolation now up there. I know... holy cryo hell. I wonder if at some point this winter does it and we'll wanna refer back to this discussion lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Do these NYC weenies have a return address? I moved in with Kevin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hey... you guys only see the neg-head side of that uncertainty - "math" requires there's a possibility that it comes in great, too - I never said no that ... go back and read the fugger - ... I said, "confidence" is low - that can mean anything. I just read a 'tenor' and that melody sounds someone dreaming of a girl the used to know, and thinking that because it's on the radio - that must be a sign... hahaha... Oh god - welcome to my life Nah, I get it.....good set up, but obviously the usual caveats that are inherent of extended leads apply. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Was thinking the same. If the threat is still there Sunday evening while I'm sipping an adult beverage.. then I'll get excited And if its not, sip several more until it is- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Lookie! Lookie! Weather Underground is predicting 10.5" on Wednesday 12/16. I'm sold. Can only go up from here. 9.4" for me! Sucks that you're getting 1.1 more than me but I'll take it. I don't know why you guys are using all these inaccurate crude models when WU tells you how much snow you're getting down to the 1/10" up to 10 days out 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: And if its not, sip several more until it is- Don’t even need to drink. You can stay sober and have meteorological beer goggles by firing up the CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don’t even need to drink. You can stay sober and have meteorological beer goggles by firing up the CMC. CMC is 100 proof rocket fuel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: CMC is 100 proof rocket fuel. It’s grain alcohol for MetFan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 19 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Lol. Scott had his son looking at weather models the day he came home from the hospital. He was reading him AFDs and TAFs while in the womb. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It’s grain alcohol for MetFan. Wxbell is his dunkin donuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s grain alcohol for MetFan. LOL If its late at all over the course of the next week, he'll roll out of his cruiser with a case of delirium tremens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: CMC is 100 proof rocket fuel. 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s grain alcohol for MetFan. When that's not doing it, you can break out the secret stash and fire up the JMA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: When that's not doing it, you can break out the secret stash and fire up the JMA. That's the heavy shit.....I'll need my stingy eurowx snow maps to act as narcan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wxbell is his dunkin donuts. Iced Coffee ftw 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: LOL If its late at all over the course of the next week, he'll roll out of his cruiser with a case of delirium tremens I'm working late until 3am on Friday night if you want a live PD segment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Wxbell is his dunkin donuts. Weeniebell gets your day started right with 10:1 and kuchera maps showing 2 feet, and you finish off the day with a smooth bottle of Icon/CMC 150 proof jet fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 What happened to the Arcepelogean? That was my hidden stash of hard crack when all else fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 The addiction is real... I keep thinking that Dec 16 is 2 weeks away, or even 10 days. It's only like 6.5, so we are getting at least within sniffing distance. We ride some ensembles for a few more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: What happened to the Arcepelogean? That was my hidden stash of hard crack when all else fails. What about the Super Swiss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Weeniebell gets your day started right with 10:1 and kuchera maps showing 2 feet, and you finish off the day with a smooth bottle of Icon/CMC 150 proof jet fuel. Sounds like that makes Dr. No the post-lunch work coma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 I miss the DGEX....that thing was fail proof. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Sounds like that makes Dr. No the post-lunch work coma. Dr No is more like waking from the post-lunch coma with a ripping hangover. You're reading the stingy Eurowx snow maps with a pot of coffee in front of you. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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