December 2020 Discussion

[jm1220]

Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

Jesus lol. Gotta wonder what the H5 charts looked like to allow something like that to occur. 

Perhaps the closest recent event was the 2/25/10 retrograde bomb that gave Central Park 21” and parts of upstate NY over 36” but it likely was a warmer storm and a little faster moving than Mar 1888. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Missed Jan 16 just to my south. Only had 8”. I’ve missed in every direction since Jan 11 and I left the area for Feb 13 lol. I could be the jinx. 

please i dont wanna hear it i missed Feb 03 (PD2), Jan 11, Feb 13 all in different states and countries.

[TalcottWx]

Miller B's are probably my favorite type of storm. 

One thing I miss, that we haven't had much of lately, clippers... I love the fact the snow sticks right away a lot of the time due to cold air

[Heisy]

Icon gets real close with the follow up wave and looks very nice so far for the LR storm. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I couldn't care less if I got 20" in one storm or 20" in one week from multiple systems.  Almost prefer the latter.

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 5, 2001 miller b. 

 

3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

March 2001 does not ring any bells to me.  What happened?

I was in Maine for both epic 3 plus footers

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I couldn't care less if I got 20" in one storm or 20" in one week from multiple systems.  Almost prefer the latter.

I used to prefer 20” in one but the idea of like 3 storms in a week totalling 20” makes it a festive week compared to a just a festive day or night...so yea, agree. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

I was in Maine for both epic 3 plus footers

Sick. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

please i dont wanna hear it i missed Feb 03 (PD2), Jan 11, Feb 13 all in different states and countries.

Time for us to relocate to interior EMA and stay put. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Id also rather have 4 6" events than one 24" event. Say for the month of December. I think most in NYC would agree that 15-16 was a shit winter and they got a lot more than average from one storm, but i dont think theyd be saying that if they got like a few small events in december, jan and feb spread out mostly evenly.

[MJO812]

Early wave is back

[Whineminster]

17 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Miller B's are probably my favorite type of storm. 

One thing I miss, that we haven't had much of lately, clippers... I love the fact the snow sticks right away a lot of the time due to cold air

Clipper redevelopers are the best

[MJO812]

[Fozz]

14 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Id also rather have 4 6" events than one 24" event. Say for the month of December. I think most in NYC would agree that 15-16 was a shit winter and they got a lot more than average from one storm, but i dont think theyd be saying that if they got like a few small events in december, jan and feb spread out mostly evenly.

Depends on other factors. 

If it's one HECS in an otherwise warm winter, while getting 4 moderate storms happens in a sustained cold period, then yeah I'd agree. But if each of those 6" storms melt in a day or two, I don't see that as any better than just getting one HECS.

[Fozz]

When was the last sustained -NAO in a winter month? March 2018?

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

 

 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

 

Very cold surface temps

[Heisy]

Big 50/50 type low on GFS at 150 hrs with a beautiful Block. It’s forcing the storm to continue to dig southward. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Jan 15 was an epic bust for Upton , Euro and Nam. Euro and Nam had 1-2 feet and Upton on their snow map had 24 + for NYC the day before with a scary and stating " Dangerous crippling blizzard is on the way "

I got 10 inches

I never bought the blizzard for NYC in that...called BS on EURO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It did put down that much from like Ray’s current location over to ORH and the northern Berkshires...but yeah, surprising it wasn’t further south with the 20+ amounts. 

It was just a bit disorganized. You can see how the phase is a little bit sloppy where the sfc low gets pretty Far East and then has to be yanked all the way back west. It kept the WCB and CCB from really getting in sync properly. 

Again, still a pretty big storm even for CT (12-18 except in a few spots far SW and far SE) but it definitely could have been considerably bigger. 

I had about 20" in Wilmington, but I think my current spot in Methuen had like 30".

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Big 50/50 type low on GFS at 150 hrs with a beautiful Block. It’s forcing the storm to continue to dig southward. 

Big hit interior New England

Low goes right over NYC and goes inland

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It did put down that much from like Ray’s current location over to ORH and the northern Berkshires...but yeah, surprising it wasn’t further south with the 20+ amounts. 

It was just a bit disorganized. You can see how the phase is a little bit sloppy where the sfc low gets pretty Far East and then has to be yanked all the way back west. It kept the WCB and CCB from really getting in sync properly. 

Again, still a pretty big storm even for CT (12-18 except in a few spots far SW and far SE) but it definitely could have been considerably bigger. 

there were model runs showing an absolute monster. a big CCB rotting over the region for days

[WinterWolf]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Big hit interior New England

Low goes right over NYC and goes inland

Can you post Ant.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro tends to choke for the nyc metro area lol for some reason. Jan 15 (too far nw), Jan 16 (too far se), Mar 17, and there has been some others as well. Even Boxing 2010 it had some wacky couple runs that shoved the system too far east. Snow forecasting can be razor thin though but you’d think the best scoring model would come through in big EC events like it used to. Jan 96 I recall it had it locked for days. That consistency seems to have either faded or we are all hyper focused on 5 mile radiuses amd thus not allowing much margin for error. Maybe a combo of both. 

It wasn't the EURO was too far nw in 2015, but it phased too fast....so if anything, too far sw.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Big hit interior New England

Low goes right over NYC and goes inland

GEFS will be se of that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, Fozz said:

When was the last sustained -NAO in a winter month? March 2018?

March 2018 is the only neg DM month since March 2013. This will join it IMO....possibly March, too.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS will be se of that.

Trough isn't negative  titled at all

Cmc is a huge snowstorm for interior areas and all rain for coastal sections except for new england.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It wasn't the EURO was too far nw in 2015, but it phased too fast....so if anything, too far sw.

I meant it gave the goods too far nw or too far sw as well for that matter. Each east tick inside 48hr though, the writing was on the wall, nothing else was phasing it that quickly (who cares about the nam) and in a progressive flow we knew it wasn’t going to happen that soon. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Trough isn't negative  titled at all

Cmc is a huge snowstorm for interior areas and all rain for coastal sections except for new england.

It will be tough to get significant snows near the coast south of SNE this month. 

[raindancewx]

If you guys want a reason to be optimistic - I had the NAO negative in December. But the Isotherm guy thought it would be negative in January. It looks like December is at least partially right on my end, but that doesn't actually mean his January call is wrong.