CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It’s been doing that but then congeals again. It’s not a true split really yet. People get too excited. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 EPS showing stronger Atlantic blocking and starts to bring the PNA back a bit, which would make it less likely for systems to cut. Airmass is still meh but Canada looks cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I can understand your issues with them. I don’t mind them at all actually. I’ve done really well here with them in the past...some of the biggest for me have been B’s. I know you’re more west than I, and sometimes that’s the just the difference between a big hit and something more moderate. And sometimes everybody west of Windham sucks exhaust. Obviously Jan/Feb ‘15 wasn’t as favorable here as it could have been...but that’s part of the gamble with those. All of Jan ‘11 and Feb 13 were huge hits here with those B’s. So I’ll gladly take my Chances where I am with them any day. Obviously, it happens, but even Feb 13 was razor thin for WCT. Danbury was like the western extent of the goods. This pattern is different though with some ridging up north so we could be better off if somethinf breaks right. Regardless, lets keep it active with cold nearby. Play with fire and roll the dice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s been doing that but then congeals again. It’s not a true split really yet. People get too excited. I've been noticing .. more so, the warm node up near the EPO domain there in the N-NE Pacific Basin ... It "looks" like a La Nina vestige/or artifact ...but, of course, then I have to concede to the La Nina as actually having an influence on the global circulation - to which ...I am not sure it is... The flow is/has been too erratic.. I think the HC expansion is controlling that more so, and the La Nina? The former circumstance is mimicry if you will.. Or, is being absorbed inside ...and since few seem aware or willing to admit/understand the HC expansion's effects on modulating/changing the Global eddy... they are simply unaware - yeah.. a bit if hypothesis that rolls eyes ...understood. But the HC stuff is not mine? NO - it's documented, scienced and papered... I don't see how we can expand the tropical/sub-tropical band over top the termination latitudes of wave dispersion without effecting that model... It's bad math - But that aside, it seems said warm arcing ridge presentation is a tropopause or lower stratospheric "echo" of a very high latitude curved jet over the Pacific ... more so than any PV break-down ?? ... The splitting vortex phenomenon is really not typically in that axis ...rotate that 90 degs.. That's sort of clue too - I'm almost willing to bet we could find this flipping into a mad -EPO at some point ...like topping a dam - Lol... if that happens no one Tweets about every little nuanced perturbation in the PV in an attempt to signal a good winter - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 i hopes folks here are right, I remember last year allot of folks kept saying it would happen and it never materialized, so call me skeptical until we are 24 hrs out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said: i hopes folks here are right, I remember last year allot of folks kept saying it would happen and it never materialized, so call me skeptical until we are 24 hrs out. Yea, I don't buy the PV split, or displacement...I think we keep seeing enough perturbations for fun, and then it eventually starts to recover next month. Not like last year, but it should strengthen eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: i hopes folks here are right, I remember last year allot of folks kept saying it would happen and it never materialized, so call me skeptical until we are 24 hrs out. I would not be expecting a true PV split. Having it take some punches though is good...it is helping keep that blocking up there longer. If you recall, the models for a few days broke down the blocking very quickly and there were some minor freakouts in here about pig patterns returning. The PV will probably congeal back together again, so I don't expect January 2011 blocking. But every little bit helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I despise miller B’s but any miller is better than no miller at all. Some day, the years of Miller A’s and powder keg clippers will return but until then, WNE weenies wait and watch those to the N & E cash in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think this is a set up where you would whiff, since we have some NAO to slow things down a tad...probably just won't JP...but lets get the storm within a week first. I know I joke about my disdain for Miller B’s but depending on where secondary forms we can do ok in NW MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Not sure if it all translates to weather in NE but we had record lows here in S FL with Ft Pierce. Doesn’t seem to be a warm SE that will flood the NE with warm weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 46 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Obviously, it happens, but even Feb 13 was razor thin for WCT. Danbury was like the western extent of the goods. This pattern is different though with some ridging up north so we could be better off if somethinf breaks right. Regardless, lets keep it active with cold nearby. Play with fire and roll the dice. December 2000 was the most west Miller b I can think of with Western NJ jackpots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: December 2000 was the most west Miller b I can think of with Western NJ jackpots One of the best storms ever. I think 2000-2001 was probably my favorite season ever. We had a monster 12+ like once a month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 God Dec 2000 can go shit in a hat. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I've been noticing .. more so, the warm node up near the EPO domain there in the N-NE Pacific Basin ... It "looks" like a La Nina vestige/or artifact ...but, of course, then I have to concede to the La Nina as actually having an influence on the global circulation - to which ...I am not sure it is... The flow is/has been too erratic.. I think the HC expansion is controlling that more so, and the La Nina? The former circumstance is mimicry if you will.. Or, is being absorbed inside ...and since few seem aware or willing to admit/understand the HC expansion's effects on modulating/changing the Global eddy... they are simply unaware - yeah.. a bit if hypothesis that rolls eyes ...understood. But the HC stuff is not mine? NO - it's documented, scienced and papered... I don't see how we can expand the tropical/sub-tropical band over top the termination latitudes of wave dispersion without effecting that model... It's bad math - But that aside, it seems said warm arcing ridge presentation is a tropopause or lower stratospheric "echo" of a very high latitude curved jet over the Pacific ... more so than any PV break-down ?? ... The splitting vortex phenomenon is really not typically in that axis ...rotate that 90 degs.. That's sort of clue too - I'm almost willing to bet we could find this flipping into a mad -EPO at some point ...like topping a dam - Lol... if that happens no one Tweets about every little nuanced perturbation in the PV in an attempt to signal a good winter - Yep, I see the warming on that side too. I'm glad to see it warp and displace a little. There is a brief split, but it comes back so to me....I don't see it as a true split. Just good to see it knocked around like Will said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: God Dec 2000 can go shit in a hat. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Oh’ how ‘Berg and I pray for such outcomes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Yea. That’s ideal for the WoR crowd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 3/7/18 was another pretty far west miller b 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Feb 25-26 2010 snowicane was a miller b, can't get much farther west than that, it backed up over CT and NYC. @CoastalWx 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 3/7/18 was a bit of a disappointment in the valley, with only like 6-8" on a forecast of nearly double that. Same as Boston proper. But the Berks and S Greens got destroyed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: God Dec 2000 can go shit in a hat. 10 inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Feb 25-26 2010 snowicane was a miller b, can't get much farther west than that, it backed up over CT and NYC. @CoastalWx Beautiful storm 4 inches in the morning and 14 inches at night 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Beautiful storm 4 inches in the morning and 14 inches at night Feb 2010 references might summon Logan from the NY wilderness. He got like 40"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: God Dec 2000 can go shit in a hat. It was okay in my area...not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Some day, the years of Miller A’s and powder keg clippers will return but until then, WNE weenies wait and watch those to the N & E cash in. No more clippers because the Hadley Cell is expanding. Not because Tip says so, but because it's written that it is. If you do get a clipper, it's not a clipper, but just a modest snow appeal mimicking a clipper. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 50 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I have no recollection of that storm...but I love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Pretty much all unforecast and unmodeled snow here this week. 3 days of continuous light snow eventually adds up. Norman Rockwell has nothing on the scene in town right now. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Pretty much all unforecast and unmodeled snow here this week. 3 days of continuous light snow eventually adds up. Norman Rockwell has nothing on the scene in town right now. I thought each day had a chance? I know you had that rogue band the other day. Cold air aloft, but thicknesses not brutal mean moisture in the air and the mtns squeeze it out. You won't have these when it's -30C at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I have no recolection of that storm...but I love it! Thats the storm that got me into weather. That season as whole. Dec 30th, Jan 21st, Feb 5th, and Mar 4-6 mega storm specifically. It was the first really big 12+er since 1996 i believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now