ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 12:28 AM, michsnowfreak said: is southern Michigan on the good side of the gradient lol? Expand Can’t really tell this far out. It’s a general N/S gradient. I think it had the dividing line between normal and above normal temps really close to your area for a couple weeks. That should mean chances there anyway if it panned out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 12:38 AM, ORH_wxman said: Can’t really tell this far out. It’s a general N/S gradient. I think it had the dividing line between normal and above normal temps really close to your area for a couple weeks. That should mean chances there anyway if it panned out like that. Expand Thanks. I know it will change several times anyway, but that's actually how I'd envisioned winter. Riding the gradient in a stormy winter can give us lots of snow (aka 2007-08) but be frustrating for pack lovers. Already had a taste of that this season (6.2" on season, less than 4 full days of full cover). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Is there any chance at all of the cutter triple pointing this weekend , so we don’t spend two days of 50’s and dews to N Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 1:20 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Is there any chance at all of the cutter triple pointing this wee, so we don’t spend two days of 50’s and dews to N Maine Expand Yes it’s possible. But gonna need to see some trends tonight and tomorrow. We’ve seen the trend of the angle of approach come in flatter over the past 24-36h but it’s still not enough. Need a bigger jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 1:24 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yes it’s possible. But gonna need to see some trends tonight and tomorrow. We’ve seen the trend of the angle of approach come in flatter over the past 24-36h but it’s still not enough. Need a bigger jump. Expand #Pleasesavethepack 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 1:31 AM, Damage In Tolland said: #Pleasesavethepack Expand Meh. I want to also, but it’s a heavy lift to keep us cold enough this weekend. We’ll have more chances behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Looks like we ramp 'em up this weekend. Great outdoorsy wx for all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 9:06 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Pretty cool sat shot today . Look at places in W CT like Wolcott . Shows elevation where snow fell Expand Nice pic. Been living in this valley for years and it's still annoys me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 12:37 AM, PhineasC said: Only one location even gets snow at this point. The climate at my place in MD is basically like Raleigh, NC now. Expand I think he meant your location in NH, and Alex’s in NH. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 1:42 AM, ORH_wxman said: Meh. I want to also, but it’s a heavy lift to keep us cold enough this weekend. We’ll have more chances behind it. Expand Oh I know it’s almost definitely all wiped out. It really is like ice though. So much water content . At least it’ll put up a fight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 9:06 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Pretty cool sat shot today . Look at places in W CT like Wolcott . Shows elevation where snow fell Expand It's funny when I look close at my town, I can pick out the individual fields (like the town park, and skyline farm) because they are the really white spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 2:13 AM, WinterWolf said: I think he meant your location in NH, and Alex’s in NH. ? Expand Oh, LOL. I figured I was being trolled. The jury is out on who averages more. It's pretty close. I likely do a little better on synoptic systems, him on upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 DT is honking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 3:55 AM, MJO812 said: DT is honking Expand BS IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 4:02 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: BS IMO. Expand BS that the Nina will weaken or bs on a snowy winter or both. Which one is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 4:02 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: BS IMO. Expand Whats bullshit ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Active pattern on the gfs with the cold nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 The 17th-18th overrunning/southern system combo on the GFS is a bit reminiscent of February 8-11 of 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 5:23 AM, RDRY said: The 17th-18th overrunning/southern system combo on the GFS is a bit reminiscent of February 8-11 of 1995. Expand Did you mean 1994? 1994-95 was a terrible snow winter in SNE. We had a big storm running over us that buried NNE in February but that was it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 4:13 AM, SnowLover22 said: BS that the Nina will weaken or bs on a snowy winter or both. Which one is it? Expand Weakening la nina leading to a big second half...if we have a good second half, then it will be due to a SSW. There is a lag between ENSO and the atmosphere....climo dictates that la nina winters do not have big finishes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 6:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Weakening la nina leading to a big second half...if we have a good second half, then it will be due to a SSW. There is a lag between ENSO and the atmosphere....climo dictates that la nina winters do not have big finishes. Expand 1955-56. Biggest March of my life 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 6:00 AM, weathafella said: Did you mean 1994? 1994-95 was a terrible snow winter in SNE. We had a big storm running over us that buried NNE in February but that was it. Expand Yes, 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 I am pretty optimistic for you guys for March. My NAO indicator seems to have worked at least a little bit for December, with the index at least nominally negative. I think the blend I had said -0.2 for December. It had March more negative than December. Nino 4 has been following 2007 (but warmer) all year. If it continues to do that, you do have a strong wet signal for the Ohio Valley in February, and then a weak wet signal for New England. Should still be cold enough for a lot of snow. Nino 4 is likely to finish Dec/Jan the coldest it has been in 5-10 years, maybe more. The warm signal from a cold Nino 4 January doesn't really extend into all of New England either in February. It took until Dec/Jan but the 2007-08 La Nina did see Nino 4 eventually drop below 27.0C, which is very cold for that area, even by 1951-2010 averages. It should happen in the next six weeks. You'll know the effect has kicked in if you see a big snowstorm in say, Kentucky, in mid-January or February. Also a cold signal for you guys in Spring. The correlations aren't super strong, but with Nino 4 set to run ~2C colder in the next few months compared to last year, it should have a big imprint on the patterns. We're not getting jack out here once the Spring correlations kick in, winter is less of an issue though 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Euro shows a coastal storm but no cold air. Storm exits right Northern stream is dropping down but too late to phase with the storm. Should watch further runs . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 The northern energy then digs and develops a coastal that hits the same areas that just got hit this past weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Nice little OES in Plymouth county. Probably 1-2” in a narrow band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 10:39 AM, CoastalWx said: Nice little OES in Plymouth county. Probably 1-2” in a narrow band. Expand I was just looking at that on radar. Very persistent with some solid echos by OES standards. I could see 4” if the ground truth is solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Freezing drizzle in Windham County in CT into Worcester County. Multiple accidents along I 395 from Auburn Ma to Plainfield CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mothman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 GFS and EURO both active thru the holidays...the cold air nearby is meh, so I'm gonna guess it's rain/cut, but there's a chance we sneak in something wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 10:39 AM, CoastalWx said: Nice little OES in Plymouth county. Probably 1-2” in a narrow band. Expand 1/2" here in yoga pants land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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