Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We saw this in Dec 2008....here is the 5-6 day forecast for 12/19/08...the last image was how it turned out. Doesn't alays work out like that of course. That was 12 years ago....but even now the models have a lot of toruble in Nina with blocking up near AK .... Great find ! ... I was thinking about that 'front end loader' type pattern and this just nails the example right down - boom... In this/that paradigm ( this may end up that way in other words ) the lower heights and/or vortex up there in Canada becomes like an ' inverse block' ? Basically ( not lecturing you per se - you now this...) we think of blocking as ridge nodes wobbling around along the 70th parallel, directing stuff around them - which ..is a miss-read anyway.. the ridge is there because of the stuff going around that region, not the other way around... - Anyway, different discussion... But in the case of vortexes and depressed heights and suppressed jets, the block is expressed via suppression ...such that deeper mid ranged and/or extended events will have to correct S ...usually they do so by stretching also..such that you can get a pancaked event with a front load IB/WAA snow blitz ... ( love those 5.5 hours traffic snarl grid lock ) ... or, they shear into pearled lows... And, this whole bag can be icing, too... It's a way to think of blocking in the other terms/directions.. The -AO .. provided a reasonable stable planetary distribution...does support more south position of the N/stream ... SO ...the takeaway is that we are discussing what I like to call "correction vectoring" ...it's exactly what that means in simpler terms - which way is this likely to correct. Unfortunately for my street cred risks ... in the bun direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Fwiw, and it's not very much, but we could see a lot of snow showers around Wednesday afternoon/evening. That's a decent little shortwave that dives in from the lakes. Prob plenty of upslope posts from powderfreak, alex and phin which should get the juices flowing by the SNE posters. But even down here, there could be some snow showers. There's a little bit of a windexy sounding with TTs approaching 50, but we're lacking LL moisture to really get excited about much else other than flurries with some embedded snow showers mixed in....up in the orographic spots of NNE, it's a different story. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Fwiw, and it's not very much, but we could see a lot of snow showers around Wednesday afternoon/evening. That's a decent little shortwave that dives in from the lakes. Prob plenty of upslope posts from powderfreak, alex and phin which should get the juices flowing by the SNE posters. But even down here, there could be some snow showers. There's a little bit of a windexy sounding with TTs approaching 50, but we're lacking LL moisture to really get excited about much else other than flurries with some embedded snow showers mixed in....up in the orographic spots of NNE, it's a different story. I'm sure Steve will be all over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Don’t forget the dawn awakening flurries on the s shore and cape tomorrow morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Here is the look by day 8 on the EPS....even though the OP wasn't really interested in producing anything exciting, this ensemble look shows potential. You still have the block N of AK and a lot of cold loading into S Canada, so any disturbance coming out of the middle of the country should be watched....this is why I was thinking somewhere in that Dec 16-19 or Dec 15-20 range could be worthy of a threat. It seems there is a window of synoptic favorability there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here is the look by day 8 on the EPS....even though the OP wasn't really interested in producing anything exciting, this ensemble look shows potential. You still have the block N of AK and a lot of cold loading into S Canada, so any disturbance coming out of the middle of the country should be watched....this is why I was thinking somewhere in that Dec 16-19 or Dec 15-20 range could be worthy of a threat. It seems there is a window of synoptic favorability there. That is exactly the window that I mentioned to kick things off in the outlook. All you need is the cold in Canada...I would be surprised if at least a couple of them do not work out over the course of the next 2-3 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 The Clipper for Wednesday looks interesting with the latest two model cycles of runs. The 18z and 12z runs are showing a more consolidated H5 disturbance, currently over northern Alberta Province, Canada. It dives southeastward through Lake Ontario and latest trends show the disturbance moving south of NYC and Long Island, and eventually Cape and the Islands. For a decent event, the region needs development to happen right away and quickly south of Long island and not southeast of ACK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Although that development you speak of James, is not forecast to occur where we need it to. So 99.99% chance that development won’t happen, being its only 36 hrs or so out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 That clipper would have some real legs if we didn't have this offshore storm passing us tonight/early tomorrow. Kind of funny, that storm would have probably hit us if it weren't for Satruday's system, and now it's going to cause the clipper potential to be diminished. Wave-spacing 101. Still, if that vortmax is potent enough, we could see some decent snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Although that development you speak of James, is not forecast to occur where we need it to. So 99.99% chance that development won’t happen, being its only 36 hrs or so out. WinterWolf the trend is our friend! 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Don’t forget the dawn awakening flurries on the s shore and cape tomorrow morning. gah-hod ... oy you're brutal - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Here is the look by day 8 on the EPS....even though the OP wasn't really interested in producing anything exciting, this ensemble look shows potential. You still have the block N of AK and a lot of cold loading into S Canada, so any disturbance coming out of the middle of the country should be watched....this is why I was thinking somewhere in that Dec 16-19 or Dec 15-20 range could be worthy of a threat. It seems there is a window of synoptic favorability there. ... I actually outright like that look ... has a bit of a nickel-dime suggestion to it .. can envision the steady diet of 2.5 to 3 day advisory packaging ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Here's a whack notion ... ...that D5/6 Euro solution pancakes and gets a colder solution into NY-CNE ... The ejection out the Rockies could be overly amped there? It's a typical albeit nuanced bias of the Euro around that temporal boundary ( that separates the outer near term to the mid range... ) It wouldn't take a hugely flatter solution to limit the erosion ... Low probability but either way, that trough looks too deep on D5 to me. If it is manufacturing ... it ends up conserved up the St Lawr out in time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 So easy to predict who reacted confused on Wolfie’s post. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Pretty cool sat shot today . Look at places in W CT like Wolcott . Shows elevation where snow fell 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pretty cool sat shot today . Look at places in W CT like Wolcott . Shows elevation where snow fell Stayed cold-broke out the parka. Feel amd look of winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Don’t forget the dawn awakening flurries on the s shore and cape tomorrow morning. I'm working in Onset tomorrow morning. Expect updates and pics 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 hour ago, weathafella said: So easy to predict who reacted confused on Wolfie’s post. And they’re Confused about a 957mb coastal low, 9 days from now not staying on the model. Guess they’re not to familiar with the ebb and flow of modeling? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Ridge bridge please. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Our temperature barely moved today lol. 2 degree range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mothman Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 The 18z GFS had some almost-tasty imagery on there. Festive-ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Larry Cosgrove thinks the pattern flips to cold and snow by January and continues through March. He likes 1995-1996 and 2007- 2008 analog 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pretty cool sat shot today . Look at places in W CT like Wolcott . Shows elevation where snow fell The trap rock ridges along I91 too. Pretty cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Weeklies have a decent gradient pattern for late December and first half of January. Low heights in NW Canada into AK but the core of them stay east of the Death Star region so Canada is pretty cold and it oozes into the northern tier. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 15 minutes ago, alex said: Our temperature barely moved today lol. 2 degree range. I thought my temp sensor was broken. Glad you saw the same thing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 36 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Larry Cosgrove thinks the pattern flips to cold and snow by January and continues through March. He likes 1995-1996 and 2007- 2008 analog Tell him to Deal with this - 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Weeklies have a decent gradient pattern for late December and first half of January. Low heights in NW Canada into AK but the core of them stay east of the Death Star region so Canada is pretty cold and it oozes into the northern tier. is southern Michigan on the good side of the gradient lol? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 38 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I thought my temp sensor was broken. Glad you saw the same thing there. Which of your locations is snowier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Which of your locations is snowier? Only one location even gets snow at this point. The climate at my place in MD is basically like Raleigh, NC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 55 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Larry Cosgrove thinks the pattern flips to cold and snow by January and continues through March. He likes 1995-1996 and 2007- 2008 analog wow I haven’t heard his name in a while! I actually had his email newsletter as a teen. I used to love reading it before school. Nostalgic memories for sure... Where does he post these days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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