Whineminster Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 1:03 AM, mahk_webstah said: Covid ruined it for this winter, but not enough of us visit the best snow town in eastern NA-Quebec City Expand Do they get that much snow? Or is it just so cold they keep pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/6/2020 at 9:31 PM, WinterWolf said: I think we’ll have our chances...in SNE. Expand Agree. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 This was the ukie at 144 hours, really good setup imo, it looks way better than the euro did at the same time frame and the euro was relatively close..could definitely imagine a low developing behind the initial wave if we saw beyond here...spacing has to be perfect and I’m a bit worried about the fast flow and any west coast shortwaves rushing things behind this... (Animation taken from another forum) 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Damn that storm on Tuesday is tantalizing close for Leo and I. Just need to nudge that a bit west. Long shot but still a bit of time for a favourable correction. #NovaScotiaStrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natedizel Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 1:03 AM, mahk_webstah said: Covid ruined it for this winter, but not enough of us visit the best snow town in eastern NA-Quebec City Expand Covid ruined everything this year. From my Rammstein concert to everyone's freedom to live how they want and like. Hopefully vaccine saves us or we man up and deal with it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 1:43 AM, Whineminster said: Do they get that much snow? Or is it just so cold they keep pack. Expand Quebec city averages 120" a year. They got 220" back in 07-08 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 1:43 AM, Whineminster said: Do they get that much snow? Or is it just so cold they keep pack. Expand Think about it...all those lows bombing through the maritimes, going up over us, or clippers blowing up in NNE....all give quebec nice snow. It’s a snowy place! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 2nd run in a row showing ridging into Greenland on the GFS. Looks like a classic SWFE on the day 9-10 range too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Waaaay out in time, but an example how you guys can still cash in this pattern if that blocking is real. Zonal flow for the most part but just enough cold air is forced south with the Greenland ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 CMC tries to get a storm going along the front just like the Euro did. It also shows another storm at 240. Active run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Would need a nice Anafront type deal on that day 7 thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 4:48 AM, Wentzadelphia said: Would need a nice Anafront type deal on that day 7 thing. Expand Lol....isn’t that among the fraud 5? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 4:48 AM, Wentzadelphia said: Would need a nice Anafront type deal on that day 7 thing. Expand CMC and Euro shows it but it rarely works out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Ukie looks good, nice energy behind the main front... and it worked in 2015! (I think that was the year) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 4:37 AM, Wentzadelphia said: 2nd run in a row showing ridging into Greenland on the GFS. Looks like a classic SWFE on the day 9-10 range too Expand Guidance is going to waffle...that is what guidance does. Just gotta trust your gut and preseason work...and both tell me we do okay this month. Maybe I will be wrong...it happened alot the past couple of years. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 4:52 AM, weathafella said: Lol....isn’t that among the fraud 5? Expand Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 6:17 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. Expand Regarding ENSO: If Nino 3.4 reverts back into weak LaNina territory by Jan, what does that mean for later Winter in New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mothman Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 If one decides to go ahead and dig a little deeper than just "playing the numbers" of a statistically-likely warm forecast, the last several runs of the american model depict nonstop cutters to the west of this region, i.e. the midwest and western New York, and several of those are all rain even for Toledo. I've not looked at the Euro, but I imagine it is singing a similar melody. The models are not to be trusted, they say.....maybe we'll get a miracle. I don't think this winter will be as balmy as the last couple, but I do think that these small scale weather trends reflect a large change that will have to be accepted sooner rather than later. A peaceful day to you all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Moths everywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 12:23 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Moths everywhere? Expand Few, but nothing like the past. They've been largely controlled thru the introduction of a parasitic fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 12:01 PM, Mothman said: If one decides to go ahead and dig a little deeper than just "playing the numbers" of a statistically-likely warm forecast, the last several runs of the american model depict nonstop cutters to the west of this region, i.e. the midwest and western New York, and several of those are all rain even for Toledo. I've not looked at the Euro, but I imagine it is singing a similar melody. The models are not to be trusted, they say.....maybe we'll get a miracle. I don't think this winter will be as balmy as the last couple, but I do think that these small scale weather trends reflect a large change that will have to be accepted sooner rather than later. A peaceful day to you all! Expand All we need is a little bit of blocking to our north northeast to force swfe or Miller Bs. If we get that bit of blocking it will show up in these modeled forecasts but a little to the events. Maybe we start to see that aft this weekend. Truthfully, I’m kind of expecting that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mothman Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 12:41 PM, mahk_webstah said: All we need is a little bit of blocking to our north northeast to force swfe or Miller Bs. If we get that bit of blocking it will show up in these modeled forecasts but a little to the events. Maybe we start to see that aft this weekend. Truthfully, I’m kind of expecting that. Expand Would love to see it! Models have been all time bad. I think we have yet to see all the factors that will play into this winters weather, and I can’t complain about the dustings so far...some Decembers you can’t even get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCwx Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 1:43 AM, Whineminster said: Do they get that much snow? Or is it just so cold they keep pack. Expand We keep the snow pack, and it's building throughout the winter. We do get rains/FZRN even in midwinter, due to cutters to travel to our NW, but temperatures rarely rise above 40F due to cold damming , thanks to the Appalachians and the Laurentian Mountains keeping the cold in the lower levels. We do not get the huge snow storns that the Maritimes or even coastal New Englands get, I guess that's because we're too far away from the ocean. 2007-08 was epic, the snow depth reached most roof levels, making it impossible to see the houses from the street in the city. In August 2008, there were still traces of snow in the lots where they dump the snow that was plowed from the street. In the mountains north of us, there was a layer of 7 feet of snow on the ground. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 4:52 AM, weathafella said: Lol....isn’t that among the fraud 5? Expand On 12/7/2020 at 6:17 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. Expand Now I'm curious what are the other 4? Backend snow? James' OES? NYC white christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 11:17 AM, masonwoods said: Regarding ENSO: If Nino 3.4 reverts back into weak LaNina territory by Jan, what does that mean for later Winter in New England? Expand I don't think it means anything for winter, given the lag that exists between ENSO and the atmosphere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 12:01 PM, Mothman said: If one decides to go ahead and dig a little deeper than just "playing the numbers" of a statistically-likely warm forecast, the last several runs of the american model depict nonstop cutters to the west of this region, i.e. the midwest and western New York, and several of those are all rain even for Toledo. I've not looked at the Euro, but I imagine it is singing a similar melody. The models are not to be trusted, they say.....maybe we'll get a miracle. I don't think this winter will be as balmy as the last couple, but I do think that these small scale weather trends reflect a large change that will have to be accepted sooner rather than later. A peaceful day to you all! Expand The very same models that are now implying a warm December were emphatically signalling otherwise a mere several days ago....and this was before they were all very warm previously before that. Unstable to say the least. This is not about "accepting" anything, at least with me...I am anticipating a mild winter with slightly below average snowfall, however, I do feel as though December will be more wintry than guidance currently suggests. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 1:57 PM, JC-CT said: Now I'm curious what are the other 4? Backend snow? James' OES? NYC white christmas? Expand Anafrontal snow, Inverted trough snows, backlash, SNE severe weather and big wind events in the Merrimack valley. Obviously there are times when these do in fact work out, but more often than not, they end up an artifact of modeling. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 1:18 PM, QCwx said: We keep the snow pack, and it's building throughout the winter. We do get rains/FZRN even in midwinter, due to cutters to travel to our NW, but temperatures rarely rise above 40F due to cold damming , thanks to the Appalachians and the Laurentian Mountains keeping the cold in the lower levels. We do not get the huge snow storns that the Maritimes or even coastal New Englands get, I guess that's because we're too far away from the ocean. 2007-08 was epic, the snow depth reached most roof levels, making it impossible to see the houses from the street in the city. In August 2008, there were still traces of snow in the lots where they dump the snow that was plowed from the street. In the mountains north of us, there was a layer of 7 feet of snow on the ground. Expand Been up that way and through Quebec City and then over/through the Laurentians quite a few times, to go sledding in Jonquere/Chicoutimi area, now called Saugenay City I believe. Gorgeous and very wintry area for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 1:18 PM, QCwx said: We keep the snow pack, and it's building throughout the winter. We do get rains/FZRN even in midwinter, due to cutters to travel to our NW, but temperatures rarely rise above 40F due to cold damming , thanks to the Appalachians and the Laurentian Mountains keeping the cold in the lower levels. We do not get the huge snow storns that the Maritimes or even coastal New Englands get, I guess that's because we're too far away from the ocean. 2007-08 was epic, the snow depth reached most roof levels, making it impossible to see the houses from the street in the city. In August 2008, there were still traces of snow in the lots where they dump the snow that was plowed from the street. In the mountains north of us, there was a layer of 7 feet of snow on the ground. Expand I've been to Winter Carnival 3 times. The best city in North American to feel like you are not in North American. Great walking, great food, great boutique hotels. Please keep posting and send pics!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/7/2020 at 2:06 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: The very same models that are not implying a warm December were emphatically signalling otherwise a mere several days ago....and this was before they were all very warm previously before that. Unstable to say the least. This is not about "accepting" anything, at least with me...I am anticipating a mild winter with slightly below average snowfall, however, I do feel as though December will be more wintry than guidance currently suggestes. Expand This. Some folks live and die with each op run...that is a lesson in futility, and not the way to go through the winter...at least not for me. And even the ensembles have been erratic at times too. They’re gonna waffle, as you stated that’s what models do. Climo is heading in our favor now, let’s see how things play out. At least That’s how I feel now. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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