December 2020 Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Not sure what to make of the rest of the month. Can easily see a threat pop or just getting skunked. 

It’s so-so. Today’s storm really messes up an otherwise great setup for Dec 7-8. We’ll see about 12/13ish...that could cut or it could end up ok...but will depend on nuances. Today’s guidance wants to lean cutter. 

Hopefully we get another chance behind that but a lot of uncertainty. 

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s so-so. Today’s storm really messes up an otherwise great setup for Dec 7-8. We’ll see about 12/13ish...that could cut or it could end up ok...but will depend on nuances. Today’s guidance wants to lean cutter. 

Hopefully we get another chance behind that but a lot of uncertainty. 

Dec 7-8 probably would have produced here with a better antecedent airmass in place. Oh well...we cross our fingers for next weekend. Keep it active and we’ll have our chances. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I am not sold on the current projections for Tuesday in the latest 12/05/2020 18z cycle of model runs.  I honestly think we have a shot at something.  Maybe it becomes all Cape Cod associated Ocean Effect Processes, but right now, the storm is still a hundred miles too far southeast on the 18z EURO

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Schwoegler is bullish . Shocking 

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s so-so. Today’s storm really messes up an otherwise great setup for Dec 7-8. We’ll see about 12/13ish...that could cut or it could end up ok...but will depend on nuances. Today’s guidance wants to lean cutter. 

Hopefully we get another chance behind that but a lot of uncertainty. 

This is close but your stupid storm killed the chance.

[Damage In Tolland]

47 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Schwoegler is bullish . Shocking 

For a cut?

[Torch Tiger]

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Yeah... too bad today’s 25 care pileup is going to ruin a decent shot at what could have been a nice event early next week.

[WinterWolf]

Did you see any snow?  I know you thought you would?
2-3”?  Or nada? 

[The 4 Seasons]

7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Did you see any snow?  I know you thought you would?
2-3”?  Or nada? 

what did you get? im guessing <1

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Reading the Tea Leaves...In short this looks like more of a cutter pattern than it did a week ago.  Trough is too far west over E 1/2 of USA for SNE.   Cold/dry...Mild up/wet.  Yes we may have chances these things turn out better do to nuances but unless the trough pushes FURTHER east over the CONUS things look cutty.

Who cares if weenies revolt....give em the truth. It will accelerate the re calibrating of their snow dreams for December instead of drawing out some vague "we got chances" dialogue to keep their negativity from making the thread "unreadable"  . They take "we got chances" as hmm 50/50 we are above normal for snow...lets think positive...big snow chances coming. Maybe things look better by Xmas week with trough placement and things.

Did i read tea leaves right?

[MJO812]

The pattern on all the models is putrid.

December might be done 

[mahk_webstah]

Or the pattern might look different in a day or two..,.as has been happening 

[It's Always Sunny]

There's still a chance for that Dec 13-14th event to amount to something for New England.  Models have a Rex Block set up over western US which then eventually breaks down and that ridging pattern traverses the rest of the country with our next storm system trailing it. Unfortunately that could very well lead to it cutting it just depends on how much that ridging breaks down out ahead of it. Chances don't look great though but maybe get some back end snow out of it.

[Damage In Tolland]

The one next weekend does have a chance at redevelopment with the -NAO and block .  It won’t be shocking if we see modeling start to move that south over the next couple of days 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The one next weekend does have a chance at redevelopment with the -NAO and block .  It won’t be shocking if we see modeling start to move that south over the next couple of days 

We cut 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’m certainly not optimistic for the rest of the month.... looks like cutters 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We cut 

So no shot at what It’s never sunny said? 100% warm cutter rains to Maine’s?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

So no shot at what It’s never sunny said? 100% warm cutter rains to Maine’s?

On Sunday? I think so. IMO.

[It's Always Sunny]

I think it really depends on a few things: how that Rex Block breaks down, how soon after the low over the west coast lifts out once blocking departs and how that s/w interacts w/ what comes out of Pac NW. If I had to place a bet I'd still say it cuts but those are three things that I think could cause models to tick east. Yesterday's storm was originally a cutter around December 1st and it became a coastal so I think there's at least some room for optimism. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I think it really depends on a few things: how that Rex Block breaks down, how soon after the low over the west coast lifts out once blocking departs and how that s/w interacts w/ what comes out of Pac NW. If I had to place a bet I'd still say it cuts but those are three things that I think could cause models to tick east. Yesterday's storm was originally a cutter around December 1st and it became a coastal so I think there's at least some room for optimism. 

Come back to New England.  

[It's Always Sunny]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Come back to New England.  

Haha not likely but you never know.  My wife and I both moved to TX separately never thinking we'd be here this long lol.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Several slightly cooler than average days coming up before another rebound back into the 50s.  Pacific flow will dominate with the models adjusting for a stronger +EPO. Same theme of long range guidance being biased too cool and showing too much blocking.
 

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/06/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SUN  06| MON 07| TUE 08| WED 09| THU 10| FRI 11| SAT 12| SUN 13 CLIMO
 X/N  43| 30  41| 29  39| 32  43| 38  54| 41  50| 46  57| 51  55 31 44

 

 

This was exactly what my worries/ concerns were last week when I got blasted. This blows 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Shut er down

[NorEastermass128]

Regression depression.  Kind of feels like 19-20 all over again. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

This coastal/ocean storm for Monday night/Tuesday looks to back the flow at the surface from westerly to northeasterly to northerly for a good 24 hour period and with 850mb temps diving to -8 t0 -10C and ocean temps north of the Cape are near 50 (10-12C), instability should be present and great enough for heavy bands of snow to move through the overnight hours and morning hours across the mid and outer Cape.  Again, lift develops and a good to great delta Ts develop and we have a good period of accumulating snow potential.  Again, never sold on an even like OES given how mesoscale in nature they are, but the potential does exist for a good band or two of OES east of HYA!

[CoastalWx]

The only saving grace is that there is not a SE ridge modeled. It's more zonal...so there will be a bit of a gradient. It means that anything would need to e well timed.  Hence, not terrible. But meh.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The only saving grace is that there is not a SE ridge modeled. It's more zonal...so there will be a bit of a gradient. It means that anything would need to e well timed.  Hence, not terrible. But meh.

That sounds promising for NNE. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Regression depression.  Kind of feels like 19-20 all over again. 

We’ve see these before:

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’ve see these before:

 

...pattern returns.