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December 2020 Discussion

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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Ginx snewx
Ginx snewx

Don that is absolutely the worst.   A week ago that easily could have been my fate. Instead tonight I got to spend time with my grand and great grandkids. God bless you and Merry Christmas 

DTWXRISK
DTWXRISK

I see you are still lying about  your snow totals  

dendrite
dendrite

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2020 at 7:48 PM, weatherwiz said:

SSW coming up?

What/how WSI package do you subscribe too for all these cool extra things?

Have WSI model lab from school but that just has a few things. 

Expand  

mmm ... mixed ideas.   

Statistically, there are diametric signals - like... the QBO is now four months positive and gaining strength - at least in last check in the 30 hPa level, ..or about mid depth along it's vertical tidal journey, ... it was over 10 m/s in the westerly ( positive) phase, and given the previous 3 months, probably continues to rise. 

That is against the SSW statistics but ... I don't know what the qualifications are honestly?  I don't know if that limitation (statistically) like kicks in at 5, 10 ... 15 or 20 m/s... Or, what level..I mean the QBO really terms deeper in the atmosphere before it's momentum washes out and then it starts anew from the other direction - etc..etc... But, 30 is mid depth, and looking at all QBO's ..it's nearing moderate strength so heh - 

That's a

b, we are in a pretty fantastic solar minimum.  ... having said that, deliberately just to mock me, God threw this at us:   "CME MISSES EARTH: A CME launched into space by a major solar flare on Nov. 29th has missed Earth. This is hardly a surprise. The blast site was located behind the sun's eastern limb; at most, a glancing blow was possible. Auroras watchers can take solice in the fact that direct hits will surely come in the months ahead as Solar Cycle 25 continues to intensify. It's just a matter of time. Aurora alerts: SMS Text..."

he's such a dyck - 

anyway, excluding a Carrington Event swooping down just in time to really give us a cure for the Pandemic ... we are in fact in a solar minimum over the preceding several months of summer,...allowing reduced UVM penetration into the polar domain,... where by theoretically, ozone has increased residence for avoiding being electromagnetically broken down ... ( UV light does that to ozone).  

Increased ozone is a thermal trap ... such that as planetary waves terminate at high altitudes/latitudes ... ( WAA termination )... the heat is dumped into the PV where the ozone absorbs and viola -...flashes a warm bubble... that then penetrates down due to normal planetary mechanics of the vortex... Interacts with the tropopause...increases the stability .. .PV breaks down, blocking ensues ...  -AO

So, we have a bad QBO and a good solar ...  offsetting - 

Dice?  ...I dunno 

I'll also point out though...that look there .. "kidney beaning " of the vortex ...wouldn't be related to SSW - it can.. but not in this case.  The entire SSW phenomenon --> AO forcing is a huge temporal ..protracted affair. It's like a 20 day gestation.  Warm node appears...starts propagating down...it takes 10 days ...then another week to start seeing AO response.  There has been no antecedent warm flashing events in the stratospheric over the poles - unless someone has some extra-double top secret data that hides reality -

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2020 at 8:01 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am thinking  more Maine, but we'll see. I expect a lot of systems like that this season in which its a race for them to develop. This is why Maine should clean up. I will get some of them, but not this one IMO.

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certainly don't disagree

  On 12/2/2020 at 8:01 PM, CoastalWx said:

Still can lead to a little SE ridging as a true -NAO is closer to Davis Straits. However, it helps pin the PV on our side.

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yeah and that SE ridge I feel like buckers things up b/c it shifts the trough axis west and we get these huggers or inland runners. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2020 at 8:05 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm ... mixed ideas.   

Statistically, there are diametric signals - like... the QBO is now four months positive and gaining strength - at least in last check in the 30 hPa level, ..or about mid depth along it's vertical tidal journey, ... it was over 10 m/s in the westerly ( positive) phase, and given the previous 3 months, probably continues to rise. 

That is against the SSW statistics but ... I don't know what the qualifications are honestly?  I don't know if that limitation (statistically) like kicks in at 5, 10 ... 15 or 20 m/s... Or, what level..I mean the QBO really terms deeper in the atmosphere before it's momentum washes out and then it starts anew from the other direction - etc..etc... But, 30 is mid depth, and looking at all QBO's ..it's nearing moderate strength so heh - 

That's a

b, we are in a pretty fantastic solar minimum.  ... having said that, deliberately just to mock me, God threw this at us:   "CME MISSES EARTH: A CME launched into space by a major solar flare on Nov. 29th has missed Earth. This is hardly a surprise. The blast site was located behind the sun's eastern limb; at most, a glancing blow was possible. Auroras watchers can take solice in the fact that direct hits will surely come in the months ahead as Solar Cycle 25 continues to intensify. It's just a matter of time. Aurora alerts: SMS Text..."

he's such a dyck - 

anyway, excluding a Carrington Event swooping down just in time to really give us a cure for the Pandemic ... we are in fact in a solar minimum over the preceding several months of summer,...allowing reduced UVM penetration into the polar domain,... where by theoretically, ozone has increased residence for avoiding being electromagnetically broken down ... ( UV light does that to ozone).  

Increased ozone is a thermal trap ... such that as planetary waves terminate at high altitudes/latitudes ... ( WAA termination )... the heat is dumped into the PV where the ozone absorbs and viola -...flashes a warm bubble... that then penetrates down due to normal planetary mechanics of the vortex... Interacts with the tropopause...increases the stability .. .PV breaks down, blocking ensues ...  -AO

So, we have a bad QBO and a good solar ...  offsetting - 

Dice?  ...I dunno 

Expand  

The other big player here is QBO structure...I wish Sam Lillo still posted here but he did some amazing work with (I am pretty certain he developed this) the MQI. The research showed strong correlation to structure/SSW potential and influences on the stratosphere and upper troposphere. 

Speaking of ozone...I've wanted to look into this but is it possible all that smoke from the wildfires this summer/fall could play a big factor into the stratosphere and how it evolves...like doesn't smoke impact ozone production? 

 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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  On 12/2/2020 at 7:58 PM, weatherwiz said:

If it does happen I don't think it will be as intense as shown for these areas...it would be at the tail beginning of an organizing CCB. but given the thermal boundary we will be dealing with fronto should be pretty sick. This could do real well in northeast MA/southern NH.

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This is a longitude storm. We should see west do better. NNE in general should do well but for CNE and especially SNE you’ll want to be west 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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Posted
  On 12/2/2020 at 8:17 PM, weatherwiz said:

The other big player here is QBO structure...I wish Sam Lillo still posted here but he did some amazing work with (I am pretty certain he developed this) the MQI. The research showed strong correlation to structure/SSW potential and influences on the stratosphere and upper troposphere. 

Speaking of ozone...I've wanted to look into this but is it possible all that smoke from the wildfires this summer/fall could play a big factor into the stratosphere and how it evolves...like doesn't smoke impact ozone production? 

 

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Opposite impact from what looks to evolve, though...it strengthens the PV, which is believed to be what happened last season. Assassinated many outlooks.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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Posted
  On 12/2/2020 at 8:23 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

This is a longitude storm. We should see west do better. NNE in general should do well but for CNE and especially SNE you’ll want to be west 

Expand  

There are two competing elements....sure, interior elevations stand the best chance at having a colder boundary layer to support snow, but NE locales have a greater likelihood of achieving the dynamics to overcome a marginal boundary layer. 

My guess is its mainly a NNE deal...best of both worlds.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2020 at 8:23 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

This is a longitude storm. We should see west do better. NNE in general should do well but for CNE and especially SNE you’ll want to be west 

Expand  

Lol, we don’t even know if this thing happens for anybody just yet...at least in SNE, it could go out to sea.
 

Way Too early for who does better or worse. Could be just a cold rain for most still. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2020 at 8:22 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

West is best.

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for NAO?

I thought we wanted east-based -NAO? With west-based -NAO you run the risk of above-average heights ticking New England which is why if you look at some -NAO composites parts of Maine actually see above-average temperatures. West based also keeps the brunt of the colder airmass into the upper-Midwest with a storm track west of us. 

  On 12/2/2020 at 8:24 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Opposite impact from what looks to evolve, though...it strengthens the PV, which is believed to be what happened last season. Assassinated many outlooks.

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gotcha...thanks or this information!

ughhh one of these days I can get back into this stuff. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2020 at 8:27 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are two competing elements....sure, interior elevations stand the best chance at having a colder boundary layer to support snow, but NE locales have a greater likelihood of achieving the dynamics to overcome a marginal boundary layer. 

My guess is its mainly a NNE deal...best of both worlds.

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Haha I know .. it's so funny -  ..it's like after all peregrinations and brilliant insights have avered ... gee, it snows more up north - who woulda thunk

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TheMainer

TheMainer

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2020 at 8:01 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am thinking  more Maine, but we'll see. I expect a lot of systems like that this season in which its a race for them to develop. This is why Maine should clean up. I will get some of them, but not this one IMO.

Expand  

I'm hoping based on guidance this will be my scene again right about new years day 20 miles south of Greenville Maine with over 2 feet of pack on the ground, can't wait to get back in the groomer.

26240055_1526691430713132_71409405509149

 

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