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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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oh wow...I wonder if the Euro/NAM are kinda onto something. The evolution of the mlvls and llvls are quite impressive and makes sense given how the northern/southern stream phase. The GFS seems a bit dry on the backside...ulvl dynamics are pretty impressive. I would think a hefty CCB could materialize rather quickly. Not sure it impacts as far south as Euro/NAM show but the dynamics seem to support this.

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One thing going for us, is the lower strat vortex. Maybe Tip or someone with more knowledge in this area agrees...but hard to get a black hole near 500mb under a big ridge like that over 50mb. Maybe it can happen...but that image above,  is a check mark that you want if you like more wintry weather IMO. 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hmmmm. We split?

 

image.png.ed3127611b6d0ec22df4349d947822a9.png

That's an interesting achievement ... kind of stands in the face of the QBO, huh - 

Although..you know, with the QBO recently demonstrating the first ever in the 120 year history of it's exposure, failing to succeed it's clock-work timing of oscillatory periods .. it makes me wonder if something is happening in the macro sense of it that is really sort of "disconnecting the circuitry" between it, and the polar regions. ..if perhaps unprecedented/first time.

But at the implication level...if that sets up you don't need a split..That's a down right cross polar flow from the deepest N. Hemispheric cryogen factory right into eastern N/A. 

 

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

oh wow...I wonder if the Euro/NAM are kinda onto something. The evolution of the mlvls and llvls are quite impressive and makes sense given how the northern/southern stream phase. The GFS seems a bit dry on the backside...ulvl dynamics are pretty impressive. I would think a hefty CCB could materialize rather quickly. Not sure it impacts as far south as Euro/NAM show but the dynamics seem to support this.

Exactly my issue.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly my issue.

If it does happen I don't think it will be as intense as shown for these areas...it would be at the tail beginning of an organizing CCB. but given the thermal boundary we will be dealing with fronto should be pretty sick. This could do real well in northeast MA/southern NH.

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6 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Question if its a big if but if a split happens what would that do to La Nina/ MJO?

It would just prolong the wintry appeal...systems that try to gut due to higher se heights would get squeezed under and redevelop as miller B. Perhaps SWFE, as well, if they fail to redevelop fast enough.

2010-2011 had that....but as we saw that season, it will go to crap once the blocking abates. 

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

SSW coming up?

What/how WSI package do you subscribe too for all these cool extra things?

Have WSI model lab from school but that just has a few things. 

It's just an internal page. I don't think it leads to a SSW..just good to see it get knocked around.

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If it does happen I don't think it will be as intense as shown for these areas...it would be at the tail beginning of an organizing CCB. but given the thermal boundary we will be dealing with fronto should be pretty sick. This could do real well in northeast MA/southern NH.

I am thinking  more Maine, but we'll see. I expect a lot of systems like that this season in which its a race for them to develop. This is why Maine should clean up. I will get some of them, but not this one IMO.

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