Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 In deference to the Euro run..... Yeeeeeah ... unfortunately, at risk of bundamentalism ... I don't think that can happen at 2-5" of snow relative to what that particular guidance shows... nope. That needs a correction. Negative tilted --> closure, and then shedding 12+ DAM of core heights as it is bundling up and passing over head pretty much can't happen without thundersnow and rates consistent with... If we get into a CSI/convective rangle ... no "snow map" is gonna narrow that down. You'll end up with 4 to 6" per hour rates somewhere that doesn't deserve like Kevin... Even at 9::1 blue snow, you'll choke the vis down to 1/16th of mile with blue flashes flaring through window panes followed by rattling rafters. Sorry for the rhetoric but that is excessive instability signal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 My main storm tracking rig is loaded with Windows ME and 128MB of RAM. I get the models pretty quickly, I must say. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS is less amped and maybe a hair faster, but not far from the op in terms of placement. FWIW. Maybe cooler too as a result. Anything in Metheun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 12z EPS is over the elbow at the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: My main storm tracking rig is loaded with Windows ME and 128MB of RAM. I get the models pretty quickly, I must say. ah Windows ME, the most hated of all operating systems. The screen is blue more often than not. Well i got Windows 2.0 with 128KB of RAM and a 286 processor. But its the 80s, so i wont have any storms to track. Congrats on the move to the Northeast btw, im sure you missed the snow and are very happy about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, lecture the state of Mass, with whom I am employed. Lol on using employer servers for this stuff... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 What's the confidence in 6"+ in southern whites at this point? Maybe 75%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, MarkO said: What's the confidence in 6"+ in southern whites at this point? Maybe 75%? That seems pretty high to me.... lots of already still... 25%-30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: ah Windows ME, the most hated of all operating systems. The screen is blue more often than not. Well i got Windows 2.0 with 128KB of RAM and a 286 processor. But its the 80s, so i wont have any storms to track. Congrats on the move to the Northeast btw, im sure you missed the snow and are very happy about that. LOL yeah thanks. I want my Euro 2 feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m all in for accumulating snow. Not like that shows, but accumulating snows look likely this is your most reasonable post ever. proud of you man. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 I'm running Windows 10 pro, 3.6GHZ processor, 9.30GB hard drive, 8.0GB of ram. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Here ... 'nother words, read this paragraph: "Forecasting such convective snow events is made even more difficult by the meso-β scale banding (with halfwidths of approximately 100 km) that is usually observed in these events. Moore & Blakely (1988), Weismuller & Zubrick (1998), Nicosia & Grumm (1999), and Martin (1998a, 1998b) have all presented case studies in which meso-β bands of heavy snowfall fell in regions of otherwise light to moderate snowfall, likely in the presence of either potential instability (PI), conditional symmetric instability (CSI), or weak conditional symmetric stability (CSS). PI is a state of the atmosphere where a lifted layer achieves a statically unstable lapse rate, resulting in upright convection." it = the Euro run at 12z from about Willamantic CT to Bangor ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, MarkO said: What's the confidence in 6"+ in southern whites at this point? Maybe 75%? I think there is a lot of details to work out, vs ptype at that elevation. So I may be lower than that based on the models disagreeing with the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I'm running Windows 10 pro, 3.6GHZ hard drive, 8.0GB of ram. 3.6GHz processor? Or 3.6TB hard drive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm running Windows 10 pro, 3.6GHZ hard drive, 8.0GB of ram. Sounds like you could run the ICON or GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, radarman said: 3.6GHz processor? Or 3.6TB hard drive? Yes, 3.6GHZ processor, 930GB hard drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, MarkO said: What's the confidence in 6"+ in southern whites at this point? Maybe 75%? I think a total whiff is still a very viable option. Need to see the GFS come back west at 18z. Euro looks good now but it has been headed east each run. 00z last night took the low west of me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Sounds like you could run the ICON or GGEM. I buy the software and hardware for my company, All about getting the model data as fast as possible......lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I think a total whiff is still a very viable option. Need to see the GFS come back west at 18z. Euro looks good now but it has been headed east each run. 00z last night took the low west of me. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I think a total whiff is still a very viable option. Need to see the GFS come back west at 18z. Euro looks good now but it has been headed east each run. 00z last night took the low west of me. Blend them both and a lot will be happy except the coastal dwellers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Looks like we three threads now... The December monthly discussion focus - The storm specific thread now 84 or so hours - The Best Buy nerd squad thread where one would rather have a spalling bullet molecularly transported into their brain box - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Blend them both and a lot will be happy except the coastal dwellers. I agree, I just hope they aren’t both just still marching eastwards. Ukie came west from 00z so that is hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: I agree, I just hope they aren’t both just still marching eastwards. Ukie came west from 00z so that is hopeful. As long as we can hold on to the bowling ball down south, It looks like we will get the help from the northern stream, Just a matter of where H5 closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Looks like we three threads now... The December monthly discussion focus - The storm specific thread now 84 or so hours - The Best Buy nerd squad thread where one would rather have a spalling bullet molecularly transported into their brain box - Are we officially safe from a Wiz low topped squall line thread? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Looks like we three threads now... The December monthly discussion focus - The storm specific thread now 84 or so hours - The Best Buy nerd squad thread where one would rather have a spalling bullet molecularly transported into their brain box - https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2SAFC4_KbW0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Are we officially safe from a Wiz low topped squall line thread? I could always start one for the fish in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Jesus, that 12z Euro is really borderline close to a condo collapser here. I've been in hibernation but that woke me up. I need an early season storm like I need a hole in the head. Want to keep the ground dry and ice free as long as possible in this hell that is 2020. Thankfully it likely won't work out. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 I want the ground frozen and iced over ASAP. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Give me the collapser, the DIT special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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