Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 23 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Merry Christmas the Sh$$ter was full. The new GEFS is starting to see a *potential* sudden stratospheric warming event within the next 10 days. As the North Pacific pattern starts to feature some blocking (-EPO) its going to doing some serious work on the #PolarVortex. This is something to watch closely. #natgas Quite thoughts on this ... ( who am I kidding - ) ... The QBO is not in the ideal phase for SSWs... presently, *BUT* I was looking over this stuff this morning and here's the weird part - the QBO appears to be improperly modulating in the 30 mb level: 2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 5.07 1.66 2020 -2.51 -3.20 -4.36 -5.03 -4.86 -2.78 0.34 4.78 7.95 10.80 That span of 20 to 22 months has exhibited some exotic variance for the QBO. Typically, it shows a very clad, dependable periodicity ...based upon its discovery back in the post Krakatoa era and the subsequent generations of monitoring; much has been inferred and or outright measured about its behavior. One crucial aspect of which is that it starts at high levels and penetrates downward over 24 ( ~ ) month period, reversing ...it terminates around the upper troposphere...and then phase switches negative ( East ) positive ( West ). You can see in that series above that the index ( 30 mb is roughly mid sigma depth along it's slosh journey ) is not behaving according to the last 120 year suggestion. This isn't the first time ... the only other time was recently in 2015 - Now, I don't know if this has any significance to the prospect of SSWs this year... but, that 120 years of observation and statistics does show that SSWs ( in general ) are less likely to occur in significant magnitude and/or downwelling necessary to modulate the AO/PV structurally... when they are in the westerly(positive) phase. Right now it is 10.80 through October... November numbers should be along shortly provided NOAA doesn't run out of funding for that too ... But it was also trending westerly since July ... It almost seems like the QBO periodicity might be breaking down ? ... it would be unprecedented for that 120 years since Krakatoa brought attention/enlightened as to its existence. It's probably got something to do with Ray's obsession with the HC - that'd be my calculated guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Western Catskills 2-3 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Well as some surmised, EPS is not amped like the op. Not good for SNE, but would help prevent our fellow NNErs from cliff diving. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Well as some surmised, EPS is not amped like the op. Not good for SNE, but would help prevent our fellow NNErs from cliff diving. Def showing some phase though....that's a big difference form earlier EPS runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Def showing some phase though....that's a big difference form earlier EPS runs. We want a little phase, right? Otherwise it would be like those earlier runs that totally whiffed up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Def showing some phase though....that's a big difference form earlier EPS runs. Yep for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 We Pope John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: We want a little phase, right? Otherwise it would be like those earlier runs that totally whiffed up here. Yes, but this was a pretty big jump in phasing on the EPS....if it went a little more, then it would end up being like the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: We Pope John He got excommunicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: He got excommunicated. Rains to Maine’s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Def showing some phase though....that's a big difference form earlier EPS runs. Yeah ...thing is, we know the EPS and operational Euro tend to deviate from one-another less. It's not like the GEFs vs the GFS ...which can be Venus vs Mars at times... Seldom does the EPS and Euro part company as much so you wonder how much the EPS ever really does what its "supposed" to do, which is offering alternatives - maybe this kinda sorta not as much as the Euro full phase is the way to go.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yes, but this was a pretty big jump in phasing on the EPS....if it went a little more, then it would end up being like the OP run. Ugh, it’s always the damned Euro pulling this shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 21 minutes ago, PhineasC said: LOL yeah he really needs this kind of storm to have a decent season. Moving from BGM just in time for something like this would be a stab in the back for him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 LL is very concerned for Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 It does seem like the storm has brought some ridging into the NAO region of the Davis Straits based on height changes, so that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It does seem like the storm has brought some ridging into the NAO region of the Davis Straits based on height changes, so that's good. I would take the cut...hopefully Euro is right. Rain either way for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Well if the Euro is right, we got 2 chances. I'm confident the Euro is wrong with the first storm. And by confident I mean weenie-hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would take the cut...hopefully Euro is right. Rain either way for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Euro looks pretty good to me. 2+ feet in my backyard. Can always adjust up if needed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 nother aspect about this Euro run, there is a negative pressure pattern across all of Ontario 24 hours before the model bomb tendency, rips from the Del Marva up the Hudson Valley. Lack of cold air hasn't exactly gone unnoticed by most during this period so - perhaps it's just not parlaying to a marginal "lucky" result this time. There's just no BL resistance in early December ( that's pretty funny anyway...). You could conceivably start out at +1 C ...and if your 850 mb center goes underneath... you'll do fair better that way. But this? It just sort of wraps the low in immediately because of there's no resistance - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He got excommunicated. 4 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: That’s a cursed image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 3 hours ago, tamarack said: Not quite as weird as the middle of my first December in Maine - 1973 - when we had RA and 56 in BGR while my parents in NNJ were 15 and IP. However, having a 7 AM temp that's slightly milder than the average low in late July is noteworthy. Was it 2015 when the high on July 4th was lower in parts of NE than it was on Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 D9 ...same damn thing... After the predecessor system finishes its tormented winter failure and fills/erodes on out, the next S/W coming down is one of those flat wave hyper knifes ...probably has a 45 unit v-core on the open streamline facia, but there is zippo lower tropospheric +PP to situate frontal slopes and so forth so any cyclonic result ends up on the left entrance region of the wind max and cuts inland... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Why in the hell is it still 57 here? The damn storm is gone. It’s 44 at my place in MD. What the hell? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Then the Euro came out. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Why in the hell is it still 57 here? The damn storm is gone. Any minute now the cold air advection arriving from Florida will kick in. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Any minute now the cold air advection arriving from Florida will kick in. This was one of the bigger POS storms in recent memory for me. What a damn turd in every facet. And now we are still trapped in its damn stink cloud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: This was one of the bigger POS storms in recent memory for me. What a damn turd in every facet. And now we are still trapped in its damn stink cloud. Anger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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