stormtracker Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Rains to Randolph. Ugh..just saw it. Only at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Ugh the Euro is really ugly this run. Just gonna toss that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: PF won't like this one. Shut em down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: BGM blaster. At least the meth labs in the srn tier are snow covered. Rains to St. Agatha...Randy and Zwyts throwing their laptops out the window on I-95 in Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 For these parts, everything was garbage no mater the track really. We second week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Contemplating driving from Chicago Boston Friday and Saturday. 40 hour drive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Rains to St. Agatha...Randy and Zwyts throwing their laptops out the window on I-95 in Maine How is upstate NY this time of year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1013mb at 78hrs 975mb at 102hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Rains to St. Agatha...Randy and Zwyts throwing their laptops out the window on I-95 in Maine They may get there 30 mins sooner though on those screaming S winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: For these parts, everything was garbage no mater the track really. We second week. Yeah...CP in SNE has almost no shot...interior SNE has a faint shot if things line up perfectly....NNE has a real shot, but still there could be issues if the Euro solution happens. I'm pretty skeptical of the Euro solution though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: For these parts, everything was garbage no mater the track really. We second week. Yea, I couldn't care less. This run just means we endure more erotic se wind bedtime stories from Kev, and more magic marker scribbling below an incoherent rambling about CAPE, from Wiz. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Logan11 approves of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Whiteface crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...CP in SNE has almost no shot...interior SNE has a faint shot if things line up perfectly....NNE has a real shot, but still there could be issues if the Euro solution happens. I'm pretty skeptical of the Euro solution though. We're all hoping it's way too wrapped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...CP in SNE has almost no shot...interior SNE has a faint shot if things line up perfectly....NNE has a real shot, but still there could be issues if the Euro solution happens. I'm pretty skeptical of the Euro solution though. Yea, I'll take the under on phasing with respect to this run, but also the under on SNE snowfall , regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, Amped said: 1013mb at 78hrs 975mb at 102hrs. Nice ... 14 mb over top the bombogenesis d(p)/dt requirement - ..pretty sure it's 24 mb in 24 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: We're all hoping it's way too wrapped It phased these two shortwaves....which no other run has been doing. Probably overly aggressive. Euro seems to like to dive the northern stream too much at times...Tip often talks about this bias, but it would be relevant here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 It's true Will but ... 72 hours ...hmm... That's getting kind of shallow - usually it's around the temporal seam of D4.5 into 6 where we see it correct toward less N-S curvature appeal and so forth... This seems to be either exacting its bias at an usually short window, or... it's onto something ? I don't know - I'm starting to get rattled by "the king" at this point - even if it is right about this solution ( say - ) ...the last 4 cycles seems like it's put out 3.5 different ideas ...at some point a liar is just a liar. It's spraying solution and picking one - we already have guidance that does that with eclat - it's called the Crazy "Unkle" ... I mean is it guidance or "miss"guidance - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 It was a little to amp happy that run, Of course the 7-8th is non factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Classic Euro bias these last couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 The weenie rule is that if all other models but the Euro show snow, the other models will immediately cave to the crappy Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Merry Christmas the Sh$$ter was full. The new GEFS is starting to see a *potential* sudden stratospheric warming event within the next 10 days. As the North Pacific pattern starts to feature some blocking (-EPO) its going to doing some serious work on the #PolarVortex. This is something to watch closely. #natgas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's true Will but ... 72 hours ...hmm... That's getting kind of shallow - usually it's around the temporal seam of D4.5 into 6 where we see it correct toward less N-S curvature appeal and so forth... This is seems to be either exacting its bias at an usually short window, or... it's onto something ? I don't know - I'm starting to get rattled by "the king" at this point - even if it is right about this solution ( say - ) ...the last 4 cycles seems like it's put out 3.5 different runs Yup... the King has left the throne a while back... the king is dead...long live the king Fast flow killin us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Yeah ...but does it still have the D10 though - mmm mmm... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 As soon as the DIT oscillation went positive for winter, this happened. Need a negative DIT. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: BGM blaster. At least the meth labs in the srn tier are snow covered. that culligan guy who moved to Jackson, NH just threw his laptop into the mud in disgust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yup... the King has left the throne a while back... the king is dead...long live the king Fast flow killin us Heh ...who knows if that's why but ... whatever the cause, I used to hedge beyond D5 but once crossing inside that range ...it was dependably 70 or 80% Euro with some spicing modulated in from other guidance. Now? I don't want to actually cook shit soup so I'm forced to change that m.o. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, mreaves said: that culligan guy who moved to Jackson, NH just threw his laptop into the mud in disgust LOL yeah he really needs this kind of storm to have a decent season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah ...but does it still have the D10 though - mmm mmm... lol That's one hell of a look at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 61.2, nice start to met winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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