December 2020 Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The only good that came out of it is we got a damaging wind event and outages. Other than that , puff puff pass .

In the short term, yes. Talk to me in a month.

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where?

 

 

Lol...he knows what I said was true.

[Damage In Tolland]

22 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's been some awful takes in here. I don't see a reversion to the AK pig pattern at all. It doesn't mean we are going to definitely get snow, but we have a legit chance for events unlike when a pig pattern where the chances are remote.

There's a lot of either deliberate trolling or just ignorance gong on here.....maybe we should break it down:

Late November/first few days of Dec: AK pig pattern/torch....little chance for snow outside of upslope areas

Dec 5 - Dec 15ish: +PNA/El Nino flavor pattern....legit chance for snow, especially from about 12/7 onward. Still a bit mild early on but getting colder as Canada starts to reload...esp by the 10th.

Post-Dec 15th: Transition to more typical December La Nina? Could start rebuilding the Aleutian ridge. It looks pretty poleward though on early extended guidance. No sign of AK pig. More likely to see overrunning/SW flow events in this pattern vs coastals. But quick hitting coastals/redevelopers do still happen (see 12/25/17) This is obviously pretty far out, so it could change...maybe the El Nino look hangs on a bit longer than guidance shows (ala Dec 1975). We just don't know until we get closer.

Here 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here 

How is that an awful comment? I thought it was the most illuminating post in the thread.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How is that an awful comment? I thought it was the most illuminating post in the thread.

Absolutely agreed.  

[Typhoon Tip]

probably remedial for some but ... this business with the D5.5 thru 7 period ( or so ) seems pretty text- booky/academic mode change headaches ... 

And ...as an afterthought ..whatever does ultimately get ejected off the Pacific may be over or under assimilated ...and small doses of error either way would also destine the way those main players start dating down stream.  They need their god ( the western ridge and total L/W x coordinate/nuance scaffolding ) to actually make them compatible on the Zodiac chart though ... Sometimes fate tries to pair up a Capricorn with a Pisces and ... that usually ends up in flickering blue lights embarrassing the neighbors.   You need wave harmonics -

[qg_omega]

Differences are as big as it gets this weekend gfs vs euro rare to see such drastic differences on a day 5 plot

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So when I’m cautious and worried it’s annoying and when I decide to join you guys with positivity and snow coming chances it’s annoying. Got it 

Listen. I think we all would be happy for you to join in the convo, just not in the negative way you have been posting. Reverse psychology, not wanting to be disappointed later... It doesnt really matter the reason, it's just doesnt add anything to the discussion. So... Join in, but please.. Try to keep your negative thoughts to yourself ( unless they are warranted and teue ). ;-)

[Typhoon Tip]

It's almost like this 'uncertainty period' itself was written on the wall ...when the GEFs started hammering a PNA mode changes, but the EPS was/has been hesitating.  

So far - not sure this has any value but might ... - the EPS seems to be slowly caving to the +PNA ... that "might" be an indication that the Euro forecast system is more suspect - 

But it is hard to blame the EPS/Euro camp entirely...because the GFS has had its own continuity headaches too - ...I think it's just a bad model performance period of time and maybe the PNA rise, while the AO and NAO correcting negative (  which, where the hell is the blocking then ?) , during transition season no less... it may all just be too much.   

I thought the Euro's genius was that it smoothed noise but heh -

[Hoth]

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

probably remedial for some but ... this business with the D5.5 thru 7 period ( or so ) seems pretty text- booky/academic mode change headaches ... 

And ...as an afterthought ..whatever does ultimately get ejected off the Pacific may be over or under assimilated ...and small doses of error either way would also destine the way those main players start dating down stream.  They need their god ( the western ridge and total L/W x coordinate/nuance scaffolding ) to actually make them compatible on the Zodiac chart though ... Sometimes fate tries to pair up a Capricorn with a Pisces and ... that usually ends up in flickering blue lights embarrassing the neighbors.   You need wave harmonics -

Awesome post. Thanks, Tip!

[Bostonseminole]

2.25" for the event.. nice soaker

[MJO812]

12z Icon with a nice track but temps are too warm

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

12z Icon with a nice track but temps are too warm

Its probably all s stream.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

That's true, but this last event was kind of silly with 55 degree rain all the way up into Canada and snow deep into GA. That's like upside-down world basically.

Not quite as weird as the middle of my first December in Maine - 1973 - when we had RA and 56 in BGR while my parents in NNJ were 15 and IP.  However, having a 7 AM temp that's slightly milder than the average low in late July is noteworthy.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its probably all s stream.

12/5-12/6 is a hail mary. Absolutely putrid airmass.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12/5-12/6 is a hail mary. Absolutely putrid airmass.

Yeah... I mentioned this awhile ago ...what this thing can't do - for the winter scenery enthusiasts ...heh - is be totally southern stream, or it'll rain everywhere beneath the summits. 

That ICON solution is rather fortuitously timed as a learning tool, because of how it summarily then jams that concept down one's throat...

One can just see it in the thickness contouring there, that the N/stream 'failed' to capture, and the system is pretty clearly as Ray pointed out...conserved southern stream sounding as it rolls up underneath and evades intermingling with those pretty blue colors tauntingly avoiding it because the Germans hate Christmas... LOL

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... I mentioned this awhile ago ...what this thing can't do - for the winter scenery enthusiasts ...heh - is be totally southern stream, or it'll rain everywhere beneath the summits. 

That ICON solution is rather fortuitous because of how well it jams that concept down one's throat... You can just see it in the thickness contouring there, that the N/stream 'failed' to capture, and the system is pretty clearly as Ray pointed out...conserved southern stream sounding as it rolls up underneath and evades intermingling with those pretty blue colors taunting avoiding it... LOL

Yeah RE: the bolded.....we need to infuse northern stream into this in order to crash the thicknesses enough to make this matter for snow. So it's definitely a "thread-the-needle" system.

Leaving the southern stream behind in the southwest and focusing on the 2nd northern stream shortwave for 12/7-8 turned out to be more useful like yesterday's 12z Euro....but it seems we're trending away from that now as the southern stream is ejecting and we're back to the 12/5 system which is tougher and probably causes too much interference for 12/7-8 should that shortwave even try to dig enough.

So we're left with trying to phase the first northern stream shortwave with the southern stream for 12/5....all while not "accidentally" tracking this too far west at the same time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12/5-12/6 is a hail mary. Absolutely putrid airmass.

Yes.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes.

Gfs shows a similiar track but warm. You are correct .

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gfs shows a similiar track but warm. You are correct .

It goes back to what Will, Scott and I originally said last week....sit tight until after 12/10.

[PhineasC]

It looks like a mauling here but I’m on the line. Better than 06z here. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It goes back to what Will, Scott and I originally said last week....sit tight until after 12/10.

Do you think the weekend being more amped will ruin our chances of the follow up wave ?

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is from my last blog update on Thanksgiving.....still like this time frame, as it offers a nice convergence between analog climo and current guidance.

This turn of events would render it very likely that southern New England will experience a major winter storm by the end of the second week of December. This would be consistent with climatology from some of the active December analogs, as the first major winter storms in December 2007 and 2008 occurred on December 13 and 19, respectively.

Anything prior to said time frame will take some luck....but it should be pretty fast and furious once we break the seal towards mid month.

This is how I expected December to play out when I issued the outlook about a month ago.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Do you think the weekend being more amped will ruin our chances of the follow up wave ?

Yes.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah RE: the bolded.....we need to infuse northern stream into this in order to crash the thicknesses enough to make this matter for snow. So it's definitely a "thread-the-needle" system.

Leaving the southern stream behind in the southwest and focusing on the 2nd northern stream shortwave for 12/7-8 turned out to be more useful like yesterday's 12z Euro....but it seems we're trending away from that now as the southern stream is ejecting and we're back to the 12/5 system which is tougher and probably causes too much interference for 12/7-8 should that shortwave even try to dig enough.

So we're left with trying to phase the first northern stream shortwave with the southern stream for 12/5....all while not "accidentally" tracking this too far west at the same time.

Yup... and the N/stream ( just adding to your assessment there ...) is rather consistent as to when it dives through the Lakes.  The 7/8th idea of yesterday had more "cold plausibility" ( if you will...) because the N/stream had a chance to time better... 

But this GFS solution seems to like the ICON and they are both now wrapping up a silver Nor'easter out of an entirely S/stream entity - or too much so to even work on marginality ...either way.   I mean there's time...  and, as this chart below shows, there is cold air near-by ...really close actually from a greater synoptic perspective, but it just won't integrate - 

[Damage In Tolland]

56 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Listen. I think we all would be happy for you to join in the convo, just not in the negative way you have been posting. Reverse psychology, not wanting to be disappointed later... It doesnt really matter the reason, it's just doesnt add anything to the discussion. So... Join in, but please.. Try to keep your negative thoughts to yourself ( unless they are warranted and teue ). ;-)

 I’ve been around on the boards longer than you’ve been alive son.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes.

Had a feeling.  Euro lost it at 0z.

[CoastalWx]

Kevin pumped for his rain?

[Snowstorms]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So when I’m cautious and worried it’s annoying and when I decide to join you guys with positivity and snow coming chances it’s annoying. Got it 

Sorry I had to. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Had a feeling.  Euro lost it at 0z.

That was house money.....if we fail mid month, then worry.