ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 12z Euro is getting interesting for D7....big changes on that northern stream shortwave diving in....much further west this run which could allow room for a system to redevelop south of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Euro is similiar to gfs with storm 2. Cmc is way too wound up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 21 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: So ... you're saying "deep winter" “Currier & Ives”-like is what I heard them say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Man that is tasty on the euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Pope Was saying something about this yesterday... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: Pope Was saying something about this yesterday... I think he meant the weekend deal. This is separate. The 7th has been hinted sort of since yesterday, but this could still be a pipe dream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Fwiw, the Euro system we're talking about is 12/7-8....NOT the 12/5 junk system. The 12/5 system on this run doesn't even really materialize...the southern stream gets cutoff in the southwest and we see a weak low develop almost overhead in NNE on 12/5. The reason the GGEM has a huge soaker for 12/5 is that it doesn't bury the SW energy like the GFS and Euro do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 December '92? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: December '92? Lol...I was looking at it and thinking "that probably would have an epic coast to 128/495 gradient". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: There's been some awful takes in here. I don't see a reversion to the AK pig pattern at all. It doesn't mean we are going to definitely get snow, but we have a legit chance for events unlike when a pig pattern where the chances are remote. ..... Didn't ask me but ... heh, probably combines two primary motivational factors - ( Conditionalized expectations + recent events ) / 2 = impatience and losing site of normalcy ... The left side of that addition is formulated or encouraged over the recent years since ...really 2000, where 50% + autumns have featured air mass supportive, or outright pulling off...early snow events. You know? It's like entitled now... It reminds me of Wright Weather and early Eastern BB... and the mid Atlantic entitlement after Jan 1996. Five years later ... when internet social media emerged, they popped on the scene clearly ( and "justly") jilted because they weren't getting the snows that NYC was - I can believe we are closing in on 15 years since that era - wow... man. Heh I guess it's a bit of abstract reference at this point - But it doesn't help that recently we 4-6" ed another Halloween ... it seems ever since then there's been this palpable undisclosed 'okay, let's do this' and every time the pattern doesn't... you get grousing to make up for the missing wind gusts... I guess that call that "guffing" lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that was a big shift from prior ensembles runs...directly attirubted to the height rises in the AK/Yukon region....pushing a pretty stout PV south into Hudson. We'll have to see if other guidance goes that direction. How is the long range looking on the 12z Euro?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Fwiw, the Euro system we're talking about is 12/7-8....NOT the 12/5 junk system. The 12/5 system on this run doesn't even really materialize...the southern stream gets cutoff in the southwest and we see a weak low develop almost overhead in NNE on 12/5. The reason the GGEM has a huge soaker for 12/5 is that it doesn't bury the SW energy like the GFS and Euro do. Exactly. The cmc had this idea last night which is what the euro shows now. Models are having an extremely extremely tough time on how much energy gets left behind on the southern stream and how far south the northern branch drops. I swear each run every model is changing drastically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 H5 looks delicious There was a time when clippers use to bomb out near the coast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Can someone post some maps please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: H5 looks delicious There was a time when clippers use to bomb out near the coast. Are we looking at the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 53 minutes ago, PhineasC said: That upcoming event is certainly much more uncertain than this current POS thing over the region. The models had this one locked-in for seemingly weeks. lol, I was noticing that as far as the GFS operational run goes... the deeper layer/mid level vortex position over Lake Huron has been pegged there clicking back some 15 ( not kidding ) cycles... ( Trop. TB) literally... It's like, clone-clone-clone-clone-clone.... all the way back, offering zero hope. The GFS is probably not as bad as we think as a model huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Break out the shorts on Christmas 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is what I was reading, but that is probably referring more to the Pacific. Obviously the PNA won't last....a lot will depend on the arctic. 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I said last week that second half of the month looked to be heading to more Nina look. But that doesn't mean shorts on Christmas. He left this in the comments section of his post: MJVentrice @MJVentrice Replying to @MJVentrice What does this mean for weather around Christmas time? If the shift happens, we'll probably see more of a winter pattern for Canada and the western two thirds of the U.S. with anomalous warmth building across the South-Southeast and east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Can someone post some maps please? Knock yourself out. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2020113012&fh=174&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Here's the unrealistic clown map 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: H5 looks delicious Is that the quarter pounder? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Hey guys is the PV splitting?. https://www.stormgeo.com/weather/articles/what-is-the-polar-vortex-and-what-does-it-mean-that-it-has-split/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Are we looking at the euro? I am are you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Fwiw, the Euro system we're talking about is 12/7-8....NOT the 12/5 junk system. The 12/5 system on this run doesn't even really materialize...the southern stream gets cutoff in the southwest and we see a weak low develop almost overhead in NNE on 12/5. The reason the GGEM has a huge soaker for 12/5 is that it doesn't bury the SW energy like the GFS and Euro do. I have always been on the "after 12/5 junk system", so this is fair game. Ideal period is later, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: I am are you ? It didn't bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 minute ago, leo2000 said: Hey guys is the PV splitting?. https://www.stormgeo.com/weather/articles/what-is-the-polar-vortex-and-what-does-it-mean-that-it-has-split/ No split, just a little jab. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 minute ago, leo2000 said: Hey guys is the PV splitting?. https://www.stormgeo.com/weather/articles/what-is-the-polar-vortex-and-what-does-it-mean-that-it-has-split/ I wouldn't say it is splitting there...more like taking some punches. Getting elongated a little bit and also displaced. That's good enough though to get some good blocking/ridging into the AK region and north of there if it holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 EPS has a low offshore too. Clearly not like the op run, but signal is there. Will, verbatim that would be a Walpole whalloper and catpaws here. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: EPS has a low offshore too. Clearly not like the op run, but signal is there. Will, verbatim that would be a Walpole whalloper and catpaws here. LOL. My kind of event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: EPS has a low offshore too. Clearly not like the op run, but signal is there. Will, verbatim that would be a Walpole whalloper and catpaws here. LOL. I have a feeling you might be breaking out in a cold sweat if it evolved like that....watching cars with blocks of snow on them driving east on 93 past Blue Hill while the cars driving west are bare. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My kind of event Just now, ORH_wxman said: I have a feeling you might be breaking out in a cold sweat if it evolved like that....watching cars with blocks of snow on them driving east on 93 past Blue Hill while the cars driving west are bare. Just toughens you up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I have a feeling you might be breaking out in a cold sweat if it evolved like that....watching cars with blocks of snow on them driving east on 93 past Blue Hill while the cars driving west are bare. #triggered 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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