ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 On 11/25/2020 at 7:51 PM, CoastalWx said: EPS is getting more ridging into the EPO domain at the end of the run. You can see that if we keep doing the retro, it may get more Nina back half of the month. Expand PNA is keeping the trough pinned over our longitude too before that. That’s probably a good spot for it to be with marginal cold around. Lowers the probability of something cutting inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 On 11/25/2020 at 7:58 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just let him go....you should know by now that every low passing west of Tolland is a '38 redux. Expand 40 to 45 in winter is meh. Get us over 65 then we can talk. Impressive blizzard for Illinois for sure. Love the way the hemisphere has evolved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 On 11/25/2020 at 8:02 PM, greenmtnwx said: Question is will it fire up the SE ridge or will any higher heights in NAO region push the cold into the east? Expand Initially, probably the latter....but you can see how this eventually plays out mid season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 On 11/25/2020 at 8:04 PM, Ginx snewx said: 40 to 45 in winter is meh. Get us over 65 then we can talk. Impressive blizzard for Illinois for sure. Love the way the hemisphere has evolved Expand When? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 On 11/25/2020 at 8:05 PM, weathafella said: When? Expand On 11/25/2020 at 8:04 PM, Ginx snewx said: 40 to 45 in winter is meh. Get us over 65 then we can talk. Impressive blizzard for Illinois for sure. Love the way the hemisphere has evolved Expand I still think that trends somewhat east and less phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Here in the Merrimack wind hole there's only 1 direction that gives sig-winds and it ain't southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 The first ten days of December as depicted now looks like 12/1-12/10 in 1988. Still a warm month in the East / cooler West by the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 On 11/25/2020 at 8:12 PM, raindancewx said: The first ten days of December as depicted now looks like 12/1-12/10 in 1988. Still a warm month in the East / cooler West by the end. Expand Depends how the arctic plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 On 11/25/2020 at 8:02 PM, ORH_wxman said: PNA is keeping the trough pinned over our longitude too before that. That’s probably a good spot for it to be with marginal cold around. Lowers the probability of something cutting inland. Expand Yeah and I like getting some more cold in Canada. So far no complaints. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 On 11/25/2020 at 7:58 PM, kdxken said: If you notice he's been dangling that lure all day hoping someone would bite. Expand Ive learned to let his comments go. Freeing!! Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 On 11/25/2020 at 7:53 PM, CoastalWx said: I don't think so. Expand Did you see the model 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 On 11/25/2020 at 8:05 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Initially, probably the latter....but you can see how this eventually plays out mid season. Expand I like 12/15 to 2/15. The interior for the earlier events but at least 2 region wide warning events in that time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2020 Author Share Posted November 25, 2020 On 11/25/2020 at 9:19 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: I like 12/15 to 2/15. The interior for the earlier events but at least 2 region wide warning events in that time frame. Expand I think 12/10 to maybe like 1/10.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 On 11/25/2020 at 7:51 PM, CoastalWx said: EPS is getting more ridging into the EPO domain at the end of the run. You can see that if we keep doing the retro, it may get more Nina back half of the month. Expand That is a good thing would give us a -EPO. We need that -EPO for a cold load to drop into Canada. Your positive surely helps you guys out in the eastern US with some cold and would help me some too here with big storm chances but need the -EPO too. I don't see how a -EPO would lead to a return of La Nina?. I heard it's getting weaker anyways heading into a moderate one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 On 11/25/2020 at 11:11 PM, leo2000 said: That is a good thing would give us a -EPO. We need that -EPO for a cold load to drop into Canada. Your positive surely helps you guys out in the eastern US with some cold and would help me some too here with big storm chances but need the -EPO too. I don't see how a -EPO would lead to a return of La Nina?. I heard it's getting weaker anyways heading into a moderate one. Expand You're right Leo. -EPO will not lead to a return of La Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 On 11/25/2020 at 9:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think 12/10 to maybe like 1/10.. Expand Yeah, I can see some lateJanuary torch time but I think KU end of January early February and for now focus on mid December tasty I-495 N&W event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Congrats New England on the GFS Close for round 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 I like the sound of this in our not too distant future. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Even the normally underdone FV3 has winds 50-60mph Monday/ Monday night. And that’s 5 days out. Setting up to be a wild one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 On 11/25/2020 at 11:29 PM, Go Kart Mozart said: You're right Leo. -EPO will not lead to a return of La Nina. Expand Because the troughing is moving west. So eventually it will be dateline ridging. At least that’s how I see it later in December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 On 11/26/2020 at 11:26 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Even the normally underdone FV3 has winds 50-60mph Monday/ Monday night. And that’s 5 days out. Setting up to be a wild one. Expand Stay safe. Stay very safe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 It's a long shot, but a little more interesting near 12/5 on guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 On 11/26/2020 at 12:45 PM, CoastalWx said: It's a long shot, but a little more interesting near 12/5 on guidance. Expand Eps has a negative NAO and a positive PNA. It has been years we have seen this combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 On 11/26/2020 at 12:45 PM, CoastalWx said: It's a long shot, but a little more interesting near 12/5 on guidance. Expand Early December has some history to it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 On 11/26/2020 at 1:06 PM, MJO812 said: Eps has a negative NAO and a positive PNA. It has been years we have seen this combo. Expand I thought it was in the process of backing off the PNA later in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Still good though. I just think as that trough retros west the ridging will too. Not trying to go poo poo on y’all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 On 11/26/2020 at 1:12 PM, CoastalWx said: I thought it was in the process of backing off the PNA later in the 11-15 day. Expand It does, +4 PNA and -2 NAO deliver a screaming southeaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 On 11/26/2020 at 1:18 PM, qg_omega said: It does, +4 PNA and -2 NAO deliver a screaming southeaster Expand I'm talking about early December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Slowly slipping away . Was too good to be true it seems .I was privately worried about this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 On 11/26/2020 at 1:22 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Slowly slipping away . Was too good to be true it seems .I was privately worried about this Expand What did I just say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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