Allsnow Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is something right out of the modoki el nino December playbook. Crazy. It only took two years of waiting. What is causing this look? Warm pool off the west coast? Mjo in cod? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is something right out of the modoki el nino December playbook. EPS looks now exactly as I thought it would days 10 to 15. Blow the mice out 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 ha ha... no kidding. wow - we stated our case/logic yesterday ...summarily, the ensuing run cycles actually supported those hypothesis rather nicely ... But then what happens at 12z ? - It's like your family member or friend is in the 12th step of rehab and not hearing from them so you go to their house to find them passed out on the floor in a bender - right back there. i don't know what to make of that... it really doesn't fit that well with the persistence, but ... you know - anomalies relative to anomalies, that's usually where the devil lurks in this business. it's like a Russian nesting doll of anomaly ... The progressive anomaly doll cracks open and out pops an backward anomaly hiccup, just long enough for that thing to happen... then, jumps back inside the other doll after everyone's fun's been ruined lol i dunno ... fwiw, all players are over the Pacific. The intermediate/polar stream wave mechanics won't even relay over land until 4 days from 12z this morning... the vestigial southern stream low doesn't come in until tomorrow.... Meanwhile, the whole ordeal from D6 -10 is during a mode change of the PNA...? There's enough objective uncertainty there not to be sold on this solution - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 26 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Crazy. It only took two years of waiting. What is causing this look? Warm pool off the west coast? Mjo in cod? Restitution from the ENSO gods for the past two still-born Modoki el nino events. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 Nearing the time to fire up the model subscriptions and post-outlook blog. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Crazy. It only took two years of waiting. What is causing this look? Warm pool off the west coast? Mjo in cod? Who knows...good question. Something similar happened in the strong La Nina of 1975-1976. Might be a good couple case studies some day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Who knows...good question. Something similar happened in the strong La Nina of 1975-1976. Might be a good couple case studies some day. ...or over the course of the next couple of @Typhoon Tip posts. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Who knows...good question. Something similar happened in the strong La Nina of 1975-1976. Might be a good couple case studies some day. Yeah. Definitely. Ventrice thinks it might be from a Siberian ssw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: Yeah. Definitely. Ventrice thinks it might be from a Siberian ssw? Interesting...I wonder if that protracts things into a serviceable January, as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nearing the time to fire up the model subscriptions and post-outlook blog. I just bought stormvista 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: I just bought stormvista How are their graphics? I hate the color scheme...only thing that lures me is the quick data reception. I usually do wxbell, which has great graphics, and Eurowx....which the best snowmaps and allows me to draw maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How are their graphics? I hate the color scheme...only thing that lures me is the quick data reception. Not bad 20 bucks a month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Interesting...I wonder if that protracts things into a serviceable January, as well. If it produces a bout of blocking (even if only for a couple weeks) in January, it could be very helpful. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How are their graphics? I hate the color scheme...only thing that lures me is the quick data reception. I usually do wxbell, which has great graphics, and Eurowx....which the best snowmaps and allows me to draw maps. SV is my go too, I'm use to there graphics, I have Weather Models as well as my secondary as well as now Pivotal, They ea have positives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: SV is my go too, I'm use to there graphics, I have Weather Models as well as my secondary as well as now Pivotal, They ea have positives. Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If it produces a bout of blocking (even if only for a couple weeks) in January, it could be very helpful. Jan 2009 redux? Albeit the AO was slightly positive that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 50 minutes ago, dryslot said: SV is my go too, I'm use to there graphics, I have Weather Models as well as my secondary as well as now Pivotal, They ea have positives. I will probably stick w wxbell and eurowx. Less need for the speed of data with the prominence of social media today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 WXbell is the way to go. Thought weathermodels was going to be good but its pretty um not good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 10 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I'd say that's a fair assessment. Again, what bothers me is that Damage In Tolland sees nothing but a zonal pattern with no chances of snow or cold through all of December. That's a little ( lot ) extreme if you all me. First and last lesson: Whatever you do...never ever listen to anything DIT says! It’s all a sham and phishing expedition...nothing more. And BTW..he’s no MET. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Changes on the 00Z guidance .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Changes on the 00Z guidance .. I will take the CMC for 500 bucks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I will take the CMC for 500 bucks lol What kind of changes we talking bout? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: If it produces a bout of blocking (even if only for a couple weeks) in January, it could be very helpful. May go down in flames but all in on 10-11 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What kind of changes we talking bout? Heres the op run. only 228 hrs away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: May go down in flames but all in on 10-11 Thought of that and you when Ventrice’s SSW post was mentioned. Yes please! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: Heres the op run. only 228 hrs away. Hey, what’s a week and a half right? that's a DC/Virginia to Maine Mauling right there. Thanks for the visual 4Seasons. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 EPS and Euro have one hell of a stem winder soueaster screamer on Monday. Wound up and cuts waaaay west. That would leave a mark 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 5 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Hey, what’s a week and a half right? that's a DC/Virginia to Maine Mauling right there. Thanks for the visual 4Seasons. Lock it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 15 hours ago, Allsnow said: Crazy. It only took two years of waiting. What is causing this look? Warm pool off the west coast? Mjo in cod? 10 hours ago, MJO812 said: Eric Coomer hack into the models? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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