ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 IF we end up getting another system redevelop along the frontal boundary just offshore with that deep trough around Dec 3 or Dec 4, then it's possible we could see something in first week of December, but I'd put that at a long shot right now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Newfoundland with a 2 footer' 60 mph winds expected tonight 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 5:02 PM, weathafella said: Kevin is in your head.. Expand He's in your head, in your head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 That storm on Monday looks like a real stemwinder cutting way west. Screaming soueaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 6:02 PM, Damage In Tolland said: That storm on Monday looks like a real stemwinder cutting way west. Screaming soueaster Expand I'm betting it trends more progressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Don’t mind a stemmer flipper though. Yanks some cold behind it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 6:11 PM, CoastalWx said: Don’t mind a stemmer flipper though. Yanks some cold behind it. Expand Yea, I couldn't care less what it does....just stating what I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 When the 12z GEFS finish, go on TT or whatever your favorite site is, to view 500mb anomalies in the northern hemi. As you loop it, notice how the trough in AK and GOAK slowly retros and allows the ridging to sort of contract west and help gradually bring colder air into the US. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 6:18 PM, CoastalWx said: When the 12z GEFS finish, go on TT or whatever your favorite site is, to view 500mb anomalies in the northern hemi. As you loop it, notice how the trough in AK and GOAK slowly retros and allows the ridging to sort of contract west and help gradually bring colder air into the US. Expand You could see it clearly on last nights eps. Since it’s an hour earlier where I’m staying I peruse it before going to bed. Often home too since I tend not to get up before 10–11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 6:20 PM, weathafella said: You could see it clearly on last nights eps. Since it’s an hour earlier where I’m staying I peruse it before going to bed. Often home too since I tend not to get up before 10–11. Expand Yeah that too. We'll see...think we need patience like Ray said, but I don't have any complaints with that look this early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 6:11 PM, CoastalWx said: Don’t mind a stemmer flipper though. Yanks some cold behind it. Expand On 11/24/2020 at 6:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm betting it trends more progressive. Expand I've been thinking more progressive too for the last couple days, though the 12z models want to stemwind it more aggressively again. I don't mind if that ends up the solution though because it will actually probably give us a better chance of something developing on the backside of that as another shortwave dives in....maybe steal an event in the first week fo December. Low probability, but possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Fact is things are starting to break right in the longer range. Just the fact that we've had such a warm November and odds favor a cooler regime flop (patterns usually last a month or so) at just the right time into mid-December is a good thing. Heights look to rise across the continental divide into Canada and in the North Atlantic. Will it be rocking, who knows. But it certainly looks at least in my estimation to be a better than average 500mb setup as we move into second week of December. It should favor building a better cold source in SE Canada and transport into the east coast. That usually will produce. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Euro is pretty amped. South Bend birch bender there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Let’s really ramp up one of our strongest screamers on record. We’ve had some memorable ones in that timeframe . Several monsters screamers in early and mid 90’s . I recall one that had widespread 65-70mph gusts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 6:31 PM, ORH_wxman said: I've been thinking more progressive too for the last couple days, though the 12z models want to stemwind it more aggressively again. I don't mind if that ends up the solution though because it will actually probably give us a better chance of something developing on the backside of that as another shortwave dives in....maybe steal an event in the first week fo December. Low probability, but possible. Expand Yea, I have no issue with a Detroit Demolition......bring it on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Its day 10 on the OP euro but that one looks like it could have a shot if it sticks around on the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 7:09 PM, dryslot said: Its day 10 on the OP euro but that one looks like it could have a shot if it sticks around on the model. Expand I would be absolutely stunned if we make it to 12/15 without another plowable event for the Boston area. I'm not really sweating it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 7:09 PM, dryslot said: Its day 10 on the OP euro but that one looks like it could have a shot if it sticks around on the model. Expand Unfortunately if the WAR ends up being strong it'll be the Midwest that scores here. Still I'm liking the trends we're seeing. Ensembles are pretty good and actually push ridging further north as we progress in December. I'm stunned we're entering a strong Nina with this look. Very odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 6:18 PM, CoastalWx said: When the 12z GEFS finish, go on TT or whatever your favorite site is, to view 500mb anomalies in the northern hemi. As you loop it, notice how the trough in AK and GOAK slowly retros and allows the ridging to sort of contract west and help gradually bring colder air into the US. Expand Eps doing the same 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 7:09 PM, dryslot said: Its day 10 on the OP euro but that one looks like it could have a shot if it sticks around on the model. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 What's nice is the EPS are resisting rolling the PNA ridge over like on some previous runs, so if that is correct, then we could definitely have some chances in the 2nd week of December...maybe something slightly sooner, though for now, I'd bet against that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Those are some helluva looks on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 7:46 PM, greenmtnwx said: Those are some helluva looks on the EPS. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 7:44 PM, Ginx snewx said: Expand That would certainly hold some merit going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 7:45 PM, ORH_wxman said: What's nice is the EPS are resisting rolling the PNA ridge over like on some previous runs, so if that is correct, then we could definitely have some chances in the 2nd week of December...maybe something slightly sooner, though for now, I'd bet against that. Expand I agree. The tendency with these PNA ridge out west the last couple of years has been for them to roll right over into the Ohio Valley and be short-lived. Guidance has this sticking around a little longer it would appear, somewhat anchored buy a slower pacific flow and higher heights in north atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Just keeps getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2020 Author Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 7:47 PM, Allsnow said: Expand That is something right out of the modoki el nino December playbook. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 7:54 PM, greenmtnwx said: I agree. The tendency with these PNA ridge out west the last couple of years has been for them to roll right over into the Ohio Valley and be short-lived. Guidance has this sticking around a little longer it would appear, somewhat anchored buy a slower pacific flow and higher heights in north atlantic. Expand The Aleutian low holds pretty firm which keeps the PNA ridge in place...sort of just reloads instead of rolling over....it's a pretty stable setup if you can keep those two pieces in place. Hopefully that prodces some threats after 12/5-12/6 or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Time for us to come back to sne....hopefully next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/24/2020 at 7:58 PM, ORH_wxman said: The Aleutian low holds pretty firm which keeps the PNA ridge in place...sort of just reloads instead of rolling over....it's a pretty stable setup if you can keep those two pieces in place. Hopefully that prodces some threats after 12/5-12/6 or so. Expand Yes, if you get that Aleutian low far enough west to dive that trough into Hawaii you get the responding ridge into W. Canada. Hook that up with some relatively higher heights in the NAtl. and you could be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now