Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

In retrospect, I guess I was hoping for a winter that I’d remember for years to come (like ‘93-‘94), not a winter that I’d forget about in three years (like ‘17-‘18). Those two and this year were all above average snowfall seasons, but one of them will be memorable and two of them won’t.

There’s a nonzero chance March will be memorable, but in a 2012 way rather than a 1993 way.

Doubt we get to either of those two extremes.  You literally picked the most extreme Marchs to compare this one to.  i'd relax expectations if I were you.

[TimB]

29 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Doubt we get to either of those two extremes.  You literally picked the most extreme Marchs to compare this one to.  i'd relax expectations if I were you.

I think this cold-ish (i.e., seasonable for early March) start to the month prevents us from seriously challenging 2012. But I’m going with 5+ degrees above normal and less than 3” of snow for the month.

[Ahoff]

3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I think this cold-ish (i.e., seasonable for early March) start to the month prevents us from seriously challenging 2012. But I’m going with 5+ degrees above normal and less than 3” of snow for the month.

Well yeah, since March 2012 was 12 above average, I’d say it’s unlikely we challenge it, lol.  5 above isn’t even close, ha!

3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

[TimB]

27 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Well yeah, since March 2012 was 12 above average, I’d say it’s unlikely we challenge it, lol.  5 above isn’t even close, ha!

After reminding myself how ridiculous that March was, I’m going to bet against an 11 day stretch with highs of 72, 75, 74, 70, 77, 72, 75, 80, 77, 81, and 81 happening this March, so I don’t see 12 above average happening.

That said...   

2012:

2021:

Same pattern, but I’m just going to take a wild guess that it’s not going to be the same magnitude.

[Ahoff]

21 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

After reminding myself how ridiculous that March was, I’m going to bet against an 11 day stretch with highs of 72, 75, 74, 70, 77, 72, 75, 80, 77, 81, and 81 happening this March, so I don’t see 12 above average happening.

That said...   

2012:

2021:

Same pattern, but I’m just going to take a wild guess that it’s not going to be the same magnitude.

Yeah, since that map doesn't give any clues to magnitude, I'm not remotely entertaining 2012 level warmth.

[TimB]

50 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, since that map doesn't give any clues to magnitude, I'm not remotely entertaining 2012 level warmth.

CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks for that event both had massive areas of 80 and 90 percent probabilities of above normal most days, so that’s a good reason not to even consider it.

[Ahoff]

Anyway, snowing pretty hard right now.

 

Ground is now white.  Definitely a surprise.

[CoraopolisWx]

56 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Anyway, snowing pretty hard right now.

 

Ground is now white.  Definitely a surprise.

Definitely a solid coating. 
March in like a...

[CoraopolisWx]

3k Nam did a good job on the squall. 
 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

8 hours ago, TimB84 said:

In retrospect, I guess I was hoping for a winter that I’d remember for years to come (like ‘93-‘94), not a winter that I’d forget about in three years (like ‘17-‘18). Those two and this year were all above average snowfall seasons, but one of them will be memorable and two of them won’t.

There’s a nonzero chance March will be memorable, but in a 2012 way rather than a 1993 way.

There’s a reason winters like that are memorable; they are rare. Your not going to have record breaking seasons every year and if that’s your bar you’ll be disappointed frequently.

It was a great winter, March looking warmer but not all that unexpected once the SSW effects fade. Still will probably have some shots at snow. Some data indicates blocking is favored following a predominantly -AO / NAO winter so something positive to see if that pans out next season. 
 

Seems weird not having to check the models daily but whatever happens with regards to snow hopefully we will have some thunderstorms to track soon.

[Mailman]

Only a few flurries here this evening.

Cancelled my Pivotal Weather sub today.  Bring on the 60's and 70's! 

[TimB]

9 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

There’s a reason winters like that are memorable; they are rare. Your not going to have record breaking seasons every year and if that’s your bar you’ll be disappointed frequently.

It was a great winter, March looking warmer but not all that unexpected once the SSW effects fade. Still will probably have some shots at snow. Some data indicates blocking is favored following a predominantly -AO / NAO winter so something positive to see if that pans out next season. 
 

Seems weird not having to check the models daily but whatever happens with regards to snow hopefully we will have some thunderstorms to track soon.

I do agree that this winter has checked most of the boxes. But I’m tired of winter coming to an abrupt end before February is over, as it nearly always seems to in recent years. Is it too much to ask for 2-3” of snow in a month (March) that averages 7.4”? I’m not even asking for half of the average, haha.

[Rd9108]

11 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I do agree that this winter has checked most of the boxes. But I’m tired of winter coming to an abrupt end before February is over, as it nearly always seems to in recent years. Is it too much to ask for 2-3” of snow in a month (March) that averages 7.4”? I’m not even asking for half of the average, haha.

Sir we literally had like a 10 inch snow storm three years ago at the end of March. 

[TimB]

59 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Sir we literally had like a 10 inch snow storm three years ago at the end of March. 

My memory seems to be telling me that was one of those long-duration events that melted almost as it fell, was an advisory rather than a warning, and was little more than a number in the record books. I seem to recall driving the turnpike and being able to safely go 70 the whole way. I could be wrong.

[Ahoff]

2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

My memory seems to be telling me that was one of those long-duration events that melted almost as it fell, and was little more than a number in the record books.

It was late March and 10".  Regardless of duration it was impressive.  Possibly the latest 10" storm on record, so record setting for you.

March '18 had 12.3" (with that storm), '17 had 9.7", '15 had 9", '13 had 15.2", your record warm 2012 had 6" of snow.  So, in the last decade we had 4 Marchs with above average snow, a few that are just a few inches below average, and even less with almost no snow.  So, Winter does not just abruptly end every year, in fact it feels as if it frequently drags into March more often than not.  You need to stop expecting record events in every month and every season.

[TimB]

33 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

It was late March and 10".  Regardless of duration it was impressive.  Possibly the lastest 10" storm on record, so record setting for you.

March '18 had 12.3" (with that storm), '17 had 9.7", '15 had 9", '13 had 15.2", your record warm 2012 had 6" of snow.  So, in the last decade we had 4 Marchs with above average snow, a few that are just a few inches below average, and even less with almost no snow.  So, Winter does not just abruptly end every year, in fact it feels as if it frequently drags into March more often than not.  You need to stop expecting record events in every month and every season.

Indeed, that is the latest in the KPIT era. There are a couple April days in the very early 1900s that recorded 11+ inches. I guess we did break a few daily snowfall records this winter, when a moderate accumulation happened to line up with a date that had a low-hanging fruit kind of record (I’m thinking Christmas in particular).

And I guess we can’t join March of 1903, 1927, and 1946 in infamy as the only ones without measurable snow, since KPIT managed to pick up 0.1” yesterday.

[snowsux]

All yinz guys who think winner's over come March don't know what yinz's tawkin' abaht, innat. It's still basic-wee winner as far as I'm concerned, bud. I don't even think abaht takin' my plah off my quad n' puttin' it inna shed 'till at weest April first. LMAO!

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

Indeed, that is the latest in the KPIT era. There are a couple April days in the very early 1900s that recorded 11+ inches. I guess we did break a few daily snowfall records this winter, when a moderate accumulation happened to line up with a date that had a low-hanging fruit kind of record (I’m thinking Christmas in particular).

And I guess we can’t join March of 1903, 1927, and 1946 in infamy as the only ones without measurable snow, since KPIT managed to pick up 0.1” yesterday.

Since it was only the 1st yesterday, I would have said we still had a good shot at seeing snow before the month was over.

[Rd9108]

Am I the only one not disappointed in this winter??? We had a storm over 10 inches that all fell during daylight with some good rates. We had a solid White Christmas. We had multiple 6+ storms. December finally wasn't a dud like usual. Ill take front loaded winters over backloaded any day. We didn't quite get the big daddy storm or arctic air but all in all if winter ends today I'm giving it an A- 

[Ahoff]

31 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Am I the only one not disappointed in this winter??? We had a storm over 10 inches that all fell during daylight with some good rates. We had a solid White Christmas. We had multiple 6+ storms. December finally wasn't a dud like usual. Ill take front loaded winters over backloaded any day. We didn't quite get the big daddy storm or arctic air but all in all if winter ends today I'm giving it an A- 

This was a phenomenal winter.  I'm totally happy.

This dry stretch coming up will be a nice way to start meterological Spring.  Sunny skies return and not brutally cold for March, very seasonable.

[snowsux]

I think we sill gotta wotta winner weft, innat. I went dahn Sarver Tru-Value n' bought aht the wast uh dare salt.

[TimB]

4 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Am I the only one not disappointed in this winter??? We had a storm over 10 inches that all fell during daylight with some good rates. We had a solid White Christmas. We had multiple 6+ storms. December finally wasn't a dud like usual. Ill take front loaded winters over backloaded any day. We didn't quite get the big daddy storm or arctic air but all in all if winter ends today I'm giving it an A- 

I can’t dispute that it was a good winter. But in thinking about other good winters in Pittsburgh’s history, it’s a garden-variety good winter, a once every 5-7 years type of deal. If we get less than an inch of additional snow the rest of the way (which I’d say is at least a 50/50 bet), it puts us just outside the top 20 all time. I’m not saying we need record-breaking snow and cold, but a top 10 or top 15 winter of all time is what I would describe as “phenomenal.” I guess it depends on how you view other factors, like number of significant snowstorms, what one personally defines to be a “significant snowstorm”, length of time with a snowpack, white Christmas, how early or late the winter went, etc. If these factors are even more important than the actual final total, I can see how this would be a “phenomenal” winter. So it’s not disappointing in that sense, it’s more that it had the potential to be even more special if the back end hadn’t been so crappy.

[Ahoff]

40 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I can’t dispute that it was a good winter. But in thinking about other good winters in Pittsburgh’s history, it’s a garden-variety good winter, a once every 5-7 years type of deal. If we get less than an inch of additional snow the rest of the way (which I’d say is at least a 50/50 bet), it puts us just outside the top 20 all time. I’m not saying we need record-breaking snow and cold, but a top 10 or top 15 winter of all time is what I would describe as “phenomenal.” I guess it depends on how you view other factors, like number of significant snowstorms, what one personally defines to be a “significant snowstorm”, length of time with a snowpack, white Christmas, how early or late the winter went, etc. If these factors are even more important than the actual final total, I can see how this would be a “phenomenal” winter. So it’s not disappointing in that sense, it’s more that it had the potential to be even more special if the back end hadn’t been so crappy.

But if we get a top 10 or top 15 winter every winter, then we make the totals almost impossible to actually achieve at some point.  There's around 140 years of weather history in Pittsburgh, if we get a top 20 or top 30 snowy winter that's pretty damn good.  Do we all want top 10 years, absolutely, but we have to celebrate small victories.

[TimB]

26 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

But if we get a top 10 or top 15 winter every winter, then we make the totals almost impossible to actually achieve at some point.  There's around 140 years of weather history in Pittsburgh, if we get a top 20 or top 30 snowy winter that's pretty damn good.  Do we all want top 10 years, absolutely, but we have to celebrate small victories.

Small victories are great, but I still feel like we need a massive victory to make up for our massive defeat last winter. In fairness, I think I worked out that the 1991-2020 snowfall averages at PIT are still going to be an inch or two higher than the 1981-2010 averages.

[Ahoff]

39 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Small victories are great, but I still feel like we need a massive victory to make up for our massive defeat last winter. In fairness, I think I worked out that the 1991-2020 snowfall averages at PIT are still going to be an inch or two higher than the 1981-2010 averages.

55" basically averages out the the what 22-25" last year.

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

55" basically averages out the the what 22-25" last year.

I suppose it does, besides, the GFS and Para don’t seem to want to keep either warm or cold air in place for long in the extended. March doesn’t look excessively warm like it did yesterday.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

I suppose it does, besides, the GFS and Para don’t seem to want to keep either warm or cold air in place for long in the extended. March doesn’t look excessively warm like it did yesterday.

That’s why taking one run and accepting it isn’t the best plan.

[TimB]

11 hours ago, Ahoff said:

That’s why taking one run and accepting it isn’t the best plan.

Well that, but that signal had been consistent for several runs and has faded a bit with all of today’s runs. And of course, the usual disclaimer of “it’s the GFS” holds true here. I’ll wait and see what the Euro thinks when next weekend is in its run, it’s been making the GFS look like a kindergarten project lately at the 7-10 day range, picking up on both the general pattern and the magnitude of said pattern much sooner (i.e., last week’s warmth, the colder period this week). But the messaging the NWS is putting out seems to lean towards the GFS when the models disagree - it’s almost like someone in charge said “hey, when these models disagree, you should lean towards the GFS unless and until it comes in line with the Euro. You work for our country and should give preference to products bought and paid for by our country.” (I may be way off base, but it’s a theory I have.)

Edit: now that the models diverge in the 7-10 day range (Euro gives us a high of 68 on Friday the 12th, GFS gives us 42), we’ll see how this plays out in real time.

[north pgh]

I think this is a good thing. Too many people are clueless when it comes to the difference between watches and warnings.

 

[TimB]

Some bonus snow flurries this afternoon - even if it’s a trace, “days it snowed” is now winning 71-53 against “days it didn’t snow” since Nov. 1.