Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️

[Ahoff]

Picked up another coating overnight.

[TimB]

NAM makes Monday look mildly interesting. Very quick hitter but 3”.

[Ahoff]

6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

NAM makes Monday look mildly interesting. Very quick hitter but 3”.

Looks not too bad, but too bad it's at the end of the run.

We're potentially looking at temperatures near 40 around that time, we'll likely have to deal with mixing and rain to overcome.  At least at this time.  Might not be as clean as the NAM wants to make it right now.

[Ahoff]

It hasn't hit 40 degrees in 23 days, and it will extend to at least 26 days.  I wonder what the record is for staying below 40 consecutively?

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

Looks not too bad, but too bad it's at the end of the run.

We're potentially looking at temperatures near 40 around that time, we'll likely have to deal with mixing and rain to overcome.  At least at this time.  Might not be as clean as the NAM wants to make it right now.

I’d be surprised if we get 3”, but I’d take 1-2, which most models seem to give us. Really depends on when the precip falls. If the bulk of it is before 12z, I’d bet on more snow than rain.

[TimB]

6 hours ago, Ahoff said:

It hasn't hit 40 degrees in 23 days, and it will extend to at least 26 days.  I wonder what the record is for staying below 40 consecutively?

Record for below freezing is 33 days, if that gives you an idea.

Today is the 36th day in a row with a low below freezing. I’m sure there have been much longer periods than that, but it’s probably uncommon.

And at this point, it looks like we won’t hit 50 until at least Wednesday. That would at least tie us for the second longest such streak to start a year in the KPIT era. And apparently, according to the chart below, 1978 is the only year in recorded history that we made it beyond 2/24 without hitting 50 degrees.

Isn’t there somewhere you can run neat little charts for things like that?

Found it. Record is 51 days without reaching 40. We would be tied for 13th if we get to 26.

As expected, 1977, 1978, and 1979 are all over these lists, haha.

Edit: almost forgot one. We are now in first place for consecutive days not dropping below 8 degrees. Sunday morning is probably our last shot at not adding 300+ days to that total.

[Rd9108]

NAM is keeping the colder idea alive for Monday. A couple inches are possible on the NAM. Looks like the snow would come around mid day. Something to keep an eye on for now. 

[Ahoff]

7 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Record for below freezing is 33 days, if that gives you an idea.

Today is the 36th day in a row with a low below freezing. I’m sure there have been much longer periods than that, but it’s probably uncommon.

And at this point, it looks like we won’t hit 50 until at least Wednesday. That would at least tie us for the second longest such streak to start a year in the KPIT era. And apparently, according to the chart below, 1978 is the only year in recorded history that we made it beyond 2/24 without hitting 50 degrees.

Isn’t there somewhere you can run neat little charts for things like that?

Found it. Record is 51 days without reaching 40. We would be tied for 13th if we get to 26.

As expected, 1977, 1978, and 1979 are all over these lists, haha.

Edit: almost forgot one. We are now in first place for consecutive days not dropping below 8 degrees. Sunday morning is probably our last shot at not adding 300+ days to that total.

I hope it gets below 8 tonight, just so we can move on from it, lol.

[CoraopolisWx]

11 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Picked up another coating overnight.

Seems like it stuck to everything. 
Made for a surprisingly nice scene this morning. 

[KPITSnow]

Man, I know these last two events were irritating, but looking at the tragedy in Texas puts things in perspective. 

[TimB]

51 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Man, I know these last two events were irritating, but looking at the tragedy in Texas puts things in perspective. 

Completely agree. Of course we’d like to think it wouldn’t happen here, and maybe it wouldn’t, because we have better infrastructure, are better prepared for it, and live in a cold climate so we’re used to crippling snowstorms and severe cold, but then again of course it could. What they got was their equivalent of the Blizzard of ‘93 and the cold snap of January 1994 all at the same time.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

2 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Seems like it stuck to everything. 
Made for a surprisingly nice scene this morning. 

Crisp 24 degrees tonight with light snow falling again tonight. Nice night for a walk. 

Should make for another nice scene tomorrow, I love how fresh snow sparkles in the early morning.

[Rd9108]

Great snow growth right now. Big fluffy flakes. It's a little slippery out tonight. 

[Burghblizz]

NAM and GFS agree about as often as opposing political parties - but they have both been pretty consistent for a quick 2”-3” Monday morning 

(NAM maybe a tad more because it’s actually a little colder)

[TimB]

The streak likely ends tomorrow, but today will officially be the 17th straight day with at least a trace of snowfall at the airport.

[Ecanem]

The NAM is really Bullish on the cold for Monday. 

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, Ecanem said:

The NAM is really Bullish on the cold for Monday. 

I don't know.  Looks "warmish".  Has temperatures above freezing, and in the mid to upper 30s.

[TimB]

The Pittsburgh NWS must have heard us complaining about their forecast discussions, the ones yesterday afternoon and this morning seem to be up to standard.

[north pgh]

Picked up 2 inches of fluffy snow from late yesterday afternoon thru this morning.

[Ecanem]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

I don't know.  Looks "warmish".  Has temperatures above freezing, and in the mid to upper 30s.

I should be more clear, Monday Morning with the system.  

[Burghblizz]

2 hours ago, north pgh said:

Picked up 2 inches of fluffy snow from late yesterday afternoon thru this morning.

Gotta love it here.  I probably spent 15 hours on the bigger “second wave” for Monday night. Not one flake. Then it snows 2” by almost by accident. 

[north pgh]

Forecast BUFKIT profiles
suggest precipitation onset as all snow; and with sufficient moisture
through the DGZ, a few inches snow may accumulate which may pose
hazardous travel conditions during the morning commute. Though,
efficient snowfall accumulation potential should be short-lived with
the infiltration of mid-level dry air.

Nevertheless, recent GFS analogs suggest the greatest potential for
2 inches or greater exists for the I-80 corridor and higher
elevations, and 4 inches or greater for the highest elevations in WV.
To address this potential advisory-level criteria, these counties
have been highlighted in the HWO. Guidance suggests a precipitation
changeover should occur for lower elevations, including the PGH
metro, as veering low level southerly flow ushers in warm enough
conditions to support rain. A cold front passage Monday afternoon
should diminish remaining precipitation potential through Monday
night, with lingering low level moisture beneath a subsidence
inversion maintaining mention of flurries.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

4 hours ago, TimB84 said:

The streak likely ends tomorrow, but today will officially be the 17th straight day with at least a trace of snowfall at the airport.

It's really been a solid deep winter feel this month so far. No matter what happens going forward this goes in my book as a great winter. Started December 1st, big storm mid December, White Christmas, No real torch periods through January, then February with the prolonged stretch of snow cover and cold days. Multiple 4-5in snow events sprinkled through the season with multiple days of at least some snow in the air and we will finish at least a foot over average. Can't draw one up much better than that and still a shot possible for some March magic. 

 

[TimB]

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

It's really been a solid deep winter feel this month so far. No matter what happens going forward this goes in my book as a great winter. Started December 1st, big storm mid December, White Christmas, No real torch periods through January, then February with the prolonged stretch of snow cover and cold days. Multiple 4-5in snow events sprinkled through the season with multiple days of at least some snow in the air and we will finish at least a foot over average. Can't draw one up much better than that and still a shot possible for some March magic. 

 

It really has been a fantastic winter when you take a step back and think about it. Especially when you compare it to the past couple. It’s been a long time since we had weeks of snow cover like this. Yeah, with the temperature having reached 21 so far today, we’re going to shatter our record for consecutive days with highs above 20 (it’s never happened in consecutive winters) barring an anomalous cold snap after we flip to March, but this winter has looked and felt like winter for the vast majority of the season.

[Ahoff]

7 hours ago, Ecanem said:

I should be more clear, Monday Morning with the system.  

That’s what I was talking about.

[Ahoff]

4 hours ago, TimB84 said:

It really has been a fantastic winter when you take a step back and think about it. Especially when you compare it to the past couple. It’s been a long time since we had weeks of snow cover like this. Yeah, with the temperature having reached 21 so far today, we’re going to shatter our record for consecutive days with highs above 20 (it’s never happened in consecutive winters) barring an anomalous cold snap after we flip to March, but this winter has looked and felt like winter for the vast majority of the season.

You are really hung up on these extreme temperatures.  This has been an exceptionally un-extreme temperature winter in both directions.  
 

Just 1 day has reached the 60s from December-today.  Likely we won’t reach 60 before February ends.  There are only 8 seasons where Dec.-Feb. did not reach 60 at all (1878-1879, 1925-1926, 1935-1936, 1963-1964, 1969-1970, 1981-1982, 1986-1987 and 2009-2010).  That kind of shows how anomalous only one 60 degree days is in those three months (and it was a low 60s day).

You are very stuck on the lack of extreme cold, which itself is odd, but you are missing the lack of extreme warmth also.  It is just a weirdly average winter temperature season.

[BigO60]

37 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

You are really hung up on these extreme temperatures.  This has been an exceptionally un-extreme temperature winter in both directions.  
 

Just 1 day has reached the 60s from December-today.  Likely we won’t reach 60 before February ends.  There are only 8 seasons where Dec.-Feb. did not reach 60 at all (1878-1879, 1925-1926, 1935-1936, 1963-1964, 1969-1970, 1981-1982, 1986-1987 and 2009-2010).  That kind of shows how anomalous only one 60 degree days is in those three months (and it was a low 60s day).

You are very stuck on the lack of extreme cold, which itself is odd, but you are missing the lack of extreme warmth also.  It is just a weirdly average winter temperature season.

Dude, chill out(pun intended); it’s just weather.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, BigO60 said:

Dude, chill out(pun intended); it’s just weather.

I'm not the one worried about having no extreme cold, lol.  I'm just pointing out some interesting weather facts.

[TimB]

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

You are really hung up on these extreme temperatures.  This has been an exceptionally un-extreme temperature winter in both directions.  
 

Just 1 day has reached the 60s from December-today.  Likely we won’t reach 60 before February ends.  There are only 8 seasons where Dec.-Feb. did not reach 60 at all (1878-1879, 1925-1926, 1935-1936, 1963-1964, 1969-1970, 1981-1982, 1986-1987 and 2009-2010).  That kind of shows how anomalous only one 60 degree days is in those three months (and it was a low 60s day).

You are very stuck on the lack of extreme cold, which itself is odd, but you are missing the lack of extreme warmth also.  It is just a weirdly average winter temperature season.

I agree that the lack of warmth is also anomalous, and having only 8 other such seasons proves that (but also proves it has occurred before). Days with highs in the teens and nights with lows of 5 or below occur in as many winters as highs in the 60s do, and it is not only anomalous, but in fact unprecedented to go two consecutive winters without those occurring (though I think it’s at least in the realm of possibility for KPIT to drop to 5 tonight). I don’t think it’s odd to notice something that has occurred as many times in Pittsburgh’s history as a high of 104 or a low of -23.

[Ahoff]

21 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I agree that the lack of warmth is also anomalous, and having only 8 other such seasons proves that (but also proves it has occurred before). Days with highs in the teens and nights with lows of 5 or below occur in as many winters as highs in the 60s do, and it is not only anomalous, but in fact unprecedented to go two consecutive winters without those occurring (though I think it’s at least in the realm of possibility for KPIT to drop to 5 tonight). I don’t think it’s odd to notice something that has occurred as many times in Pittsburgh’s history as a high of 104 or a low of -23.

Yes, but it’s again not impossible clearly.  I just feel the incredible averageness of this year is more notable than anything.